Week 16 of the NFL Season wraps up Monday night with the San Fransico 49ers travelling to play the Indianapolis Colts as 5.5-point favourites.
A win for the 49ers tonight will give them a clear path (win out) to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the Colts can salvage their fading playoff hopes (+1600) with an upset.
Earlier today, TSN’s Domenic Padula went over everything you need to know about Week 16 of the NFL season in Morning Coffee. Let’s get to some best bets from our staff.
Domenic Padula: Tyler Warren 33.5 receiving yards
Warren has hit a bit of a rookie wall of late, but a large part of that has been due to the Daniel Jones injury and a tough schedule. In Philip Rivers’ return, Warren had three catches for 19 yards on six targets. The target volume intrigues me the most, especially against a 49ers defence that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. With their season on the line, Indy will continue to lean on its running backs and its star rookie tight end to move the football. Warren’s number has been adjusted down due to his recent lack of production, which makes this an ideal buy-low spot. Give me Warren 34 or more receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.
Connor Ford: Jonathan Taylor Under 97.5 Rushing Yards
It’s never a great feeling to bet the under on one of the most talented running backs in the league. However, this line simply feels too high against a 49ers defence that will be expecting a heavy dose of handoffs from the Colts offence. With 44-year-old Phillip Rivers running the show, Indianapolis’ game plan just might be too predictable.
The 49ers have dealt with significant injuries on defence, but they’ve still allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards to running backs this season. Taylor has gone under this number in four straight games, although his matchups have admittedly been tough. While the 49ers defence might not be as stout as the Texans or Seahawks, Robert Saleh will surely have a sound game plan in place to stop the Colts best offensive weapon.
Rivers’ return is a great story – but my guess is we’ll see just how limited this offence is on Monday night. The Colts can only run the ball so many times. Taylor under 97.5 rushing yards is my best bet for MNF. GULP!
Drew Morrison: Michael Pittman Over 3.5 Receptions
Old Man Rivers walked off the field in one piece last Sunday after his first NFL action in five years. That has to be considered a win, even though the Colts lost to the Seahawks on a last-second field goal. It wasn’t always pretty, but the 44-year-old managed to give his team a chance to win against Seattle’s scary defence. San Francisco’s front seven isn’t nearly as frightening. The Niners have the fewest sacks in the league, six fewer than ANY other team entering week 16. Robert Saleh has run a successful scheme to make up for their slew of injuries but it hasn’t translated to sacks. Philip Rivers will have more time to exploit his biggest asset – experience.
Michael Pittman JR was a rookie in Philip Rivers’ final season prior to last week. He had 5 catches for a team-leading 90 yards in what used to BE Rivers’ last game, a playoff loss to the Bills after the 2020 season. Last week, despite a rusty quarterback and a stingy opponent, Pittman still caught three passes from his new/old QB. The converted high school coach targeted Pittman five times, one fewer than Tyler Warren for the team lead. Even if the matchup wasn’t this juicy, another week of reps and film work ought to yield one more catch for Pittman at plus money.
Luke Bellus: 49ers -5.5
There are two rules about throwing/attending a party.
- Never show up late to the party
- You can’t throw the same party twice in a row
This feels appropriate when betting on the NFL a lot of the time.
Last week, the talking heads were concerned about Rivers’ health and whether he could still take a hit in this league.
Suddenly, some of them like Rivers to win at home tonight.
Well, too bad for them, they’re all late to the party.
The time to invest in Rivers and the Colts was last week, when you were getting 13.5 points against a struggling Seattle offence that was just four days away from their biggest game of the season.
But now, a week later, Indy draws a much tougher offence to slow down, and with the 49ers now being in control of their path to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, I don’t see them tripping in this spot.
The Rivers party was awesome last week, but I honestly think the Colts had a better chance to win last week as 13-point underdogs than they do in this spot at home in primetime.
Remember a few years ago when Indy named Jeff Saturday the intern head coach? Yeah, they were great in the first game, and it all came crashing down the following week in primetime.
Hmm. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Don’t show up to this party late. I know the music sounds nice because it’s a live band, but this boat hit an iceberg a few weeks ago, it’s only a matter of time before we’re all sinking.
