Last week – Pick Six took last week off after a gruelling week at the PGA Championship but we are back at it for this week’s event in Fort Worth, Tex. Our picks at the PGA Championship didn’t nab the winner – not many had Aaron Rai as the champ – but we did cash a couple of tickets. We had Justin Rose at +185 for a top-20 finish and Ludvig Aberg at +165 for a top 10.
This week – A regular tournament slammed between a stretch of signature events and major championships doesn’t draw a very deep field, but there are still enough names and a challenging layout to get some interest. There is just one in the top 10 in the world ranking (J.J. Spaun) but seven of the top 20. The Colonial Country Club is a par-70, 7,289-yard layout that has proven popular with players, especially after a makeover three years ago. There’s plenty of teeth around the course and it comes early with a stretch of three, four and five known as the Horrible Horseshoe. The winning score over the renewed layout was 12 and 14 under the last two editions and it may not change from that area this time around. However, the Fort Worth area has had a lot of rain, and the course is still a bit soggy which may play a factor.
To Win
Russell Henley +2000
It’s been feast or famine for Henley who tied for third at the Masters but then missed the cut in his last start at the PGA Championship. He leads the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and that will definitely be a good asset on this course this week. He’s also tops in Scrambling, which won’t hurt around these putting surfaces.
Justin Thomas +2000
Hasn’t played here since the 2022 edition but comes in with a hot hand after a tie for fourth at the PGA Championship. That included a 65 on Sunday, one of the most impressive rounds of the week on Aronomink. If his putter from the PGA comes to Colonial he should perform well.
Top 10
Rickie Fowler +260
Three of his last four finishes have been inside the top 10. The only one not was the PGA Championship, where he slipped back on Sunday. Still, his game has been shining for most of the season, and he seems ready for a breakout. He tied for six here in 2023 and was 16th last year.
Keith Mitchell +350
Made the cut the last two years here and arrives after a fifth-place finish last week in McKinney, Tex., at the CJ Cup. Has only missed one cut in 14 starts this season and has four top-25 finishes. Currently fifth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Top 20
Stephen Jaeger +230
Tied for 18th at the PGA Championship and then had a tie for ninth at the CJ Cup last week so he’s been delivering a solid game in recent starts. Great scrambling around the green and out of the bunkers, both skills that will be handy this week.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju +250
The Canadian rookie is 10th in Total Driving, a good indication of why he might play well here where distance and accuracy are key stats of past winners. He’s also in a battle to try and get into the next round of Signature Events as well as lock his spot in the FedEx Cup. He has his eyes on two big events coming up with the RBC Canadian Open and the U.S. Open, where he’s already qualified.
Extras
Rickie Fowler vs Ben Griffin
We’ll take Fowler at -110
Top Canadian: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +150
See above!
