Game of Throws: Can Indiana Jones lead Colts to the Super Bowl?

The Kansas City Chiefs are steaming towards a record eighth straight AFC Championship Game appearance.

If there was ever such thing as proof that we are stuck in a simulation, this might be it.

Kansas City went to the AFC title game in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.

The Chiefs won five of those seven AFC championships.

Patrick Mahomes led them to three Super Bowl wins.

After a blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, Kansas City opened this season with back-to-back losses and sat at 2-3 entering Week 6.

The Chiefs beat the Detroit Lions 30-17 in Week 6.

Then in Week 7, they completely dismantled the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders 31-0 in Rashee Rice’s highly anticipated return to the lineup.

Rice hauled in seven receptions for 42 yards and two touchdowns in his season debut.

Travis Kelce led Kansas City with 54 receiving yards on three catches in the win over the Raiders.

Rookie running back Brashard Smith flashed his immense upside with 81 scrimmage yards in the best performance of his young NFL career to date.

As I highlighted in this column last week, the Chiefs just might have their easiest path to the AFC Championship Game in the Mahomes era this season.

Whether it’s the injuries that have ravaged contenders like the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, or the Los Angeles Chargers, or the lack of other capable teams, Kansas City is an obvious AFC favourite at +250.

The Buffalo Bills remain the second choice to win the AFC at FanDuel as the most likely challenger on paper after falling just short in last year’s AFC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, a surprise contender has emerged as the third choice to win the AFC at FanDuel.

Nobody expected the Indianapolis Colts to contend for a Super Bowl as an 80-to-1 longshot entering Week 1.

However, that number is down to 12-to-1 at FanDuel following a surprising 6-1 start for Indianapolis.

Are the Colts a legitimate contender in the AFC?

If not, which AFC team is most likely to challenge the Chiefs for a spot in the Super Bowl this season?

The Colts are off to their best start since Peyton Manning led them to a Super Bowl in 2009.

While I was quick to dismiss them as a legitimate AFC contender without an elite quarterback, Indianapolis has surprised everybody with the NFL’s best record.

Veteran QB Daniel Jones has registered the second-best quarterback rating in the NFL through his first seven starts for the Colts.

He’s completed 71 per cent of his pass attempts for 1,790 yards and 10 touchdowns with three interceptions.

Indianapolis owns the best EPA/Play in the entire NFL.

Kansas City is a distant second choice in that category.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I’d bet the Colts to beat the Chiefs in a playoff game.

You might have heard somebody argue the point that NFL teams shouldn’t have their accomplishments diminished in any way based on strength of schedule.

While I wouldn’t discount what they’ve done, I’m also not ready to crown the Colts as the AFC title favourite.

That doesn’t mean they couldn’t beat any AFC team on any given Sunday.

Jones must feel like he’s jumped timelines after his move from the New York Giants to Indianapolis.

Jonathan Taylor has averaged an NFL-best 95.0 rushing yards per game with an NFL-best 10 rushing touchdowns.

In Sunday’s 38-24 win over the Chargers, Taylor joined Derrick Henry, Priest Holmes, and Jim Brown as the only running backs in NFL history with three games with three or more rushing touchdowns within the first seven games of a season.

As if Taylor wasn’t a big enough cheat code, Indianapolis added rookie first round pick tight end Tyler Warren.

The 14th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft leads all NFL tight ends with 4.6 receptions for 52.7 receiving yards per game this season.

Warren is currently the third choice to win AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +650 at FanDuel.

Only Giants QB Jaxson Dart (+100) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (+175) have shorter odds to win that award through seven weeks.

The combination of Taylor and Warren in an offence that features a solid offensive line provides an added boost in both the run and pass games.

Warren is a big body that can help block for Taylor.

Taylor is a dynamic running back that forces opposing defences to bite in the play-action passing game.

Add a healthy Michael Pittman, contract-year Alec Peirce, and the inevitable return of Josh Downs and this offence is good enough to make head coach Shane Steichen look like an offensive mastermind.

The tape jumps off the page.

Steichen is the AP NFL Coach of the Year favourite at +125 at FanDuel.

Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots (+350) and Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers (+700) are the only other coaches with shorter than 10-to-1 odds to win that award entering Week 8.

I can’t take away anything from what the Colts have done over the first half of the season, but I can acknowledge they haven’t faced the type of adversity the other top teams in the AFC have encountered.

While the Ravens, Bengals, and Chargers have been faced with season-altering injuries, Indy has been relatively healthy through seven weeks.

In addition to avoiding significant injuries, the Colts have played three opponents with winning records.

Indianapolis secured key wins over a pair of AFC West teams in the banged-up Chargers and Denver Broncos.

They also lost to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4.

Indy’s other four wins came against opponents that have combined for a 6-22 record.

Three of them rank in the bottom nine in the NFL in offensive EPA/Play, including the 31st-ranked Raiders and the 32nd-ranked Tennessee Titans.

Again, that doesn’t take anything away from what the Colts have accomplished to this point.

Indianapolis is a -280 favourite to win the AFC South.

No other NFL team is considered more likely to make the playoffs at FanDuel than the Colts at -2200.

Still, wins over the Titans, Raiders, Miami Dolphins, and Arizona Cardinals won’t be enough to convince me to crown Indy as the AFC title favourite over the Chiefs.

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the Colts schedule isn’t who they’ve played, but who they have remaining.

Indy is a 14.5-point favourite for this week’s game against the visiting Titans.

The Colts will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9, then head overseas to Berlin to play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 before a bye.

Indianapolis should be fresh for a showdown in Kansas City in Week 12.

Their post-bye schedule starts at the Chiefs, and includes a road game against the Seattle Seahawks, a home game against the San Francisco 49ers, plus both games against the rival Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Indianapolis is one game up on the Patriots and Broncos for the best record in the AFC standings.

How important will home field advantage be for the Colts come playoff time?

Lucas Oil Stadium would provide a much different game environment in January than a trip to Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver, Pittsburgh, or New England.

I’m impressed by what Indy has done so far this season.

I’m intrigued by what they have the potential to do next.

As for this week, the Colts have the potential to pile on points in a rematch against the Titans.

Indianapolis beat Tennessee 41-20 in the first meeting.

Taylor rushed for 102 yards and three touchdowns.

This week, Taylor’s anytime touchdown prop is -425 at FanDuel.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a TD prop at that big of a number.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I have two bets for Sunday’s game.

First, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Taylor 80+ rushing yards and Indianapolis to score over 27.5 points at -110 odds.

Taylor should be heavily featured again in this matchup once again and I don’t see the Titans slowing down the Colts offence at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Second, I’ll take Chimere Dike over 26.5 receiving yards.

The rookie fourth round pick had four catches for 70 yards in last week’s loss to the New England Patriots.

It’s not a coincidence that his breakout game lined up with two targets for Tyler Lockett in a game that Calvin Ridley missed due to injury.

Lockett requested and received a release from the Titans this week.

Ridley has not practiced due to a hamstring injury.

Tennessee is a 14.5-point underdog, which should plenty of opportunities for rookie QB Cam Ward to throw the football to Dike and Canadian Elic Ayomanor.

I’ll bank on Dike picking up where he left off with 27 or more receiving yards in a loss to Indianapolis.

Hopefully, the Colts can pick up where they left off in their last meeting against Tennessee.

Let’s take a wait-and-see approach beyond Week 8.