The road to the 113th Grey Cup in Calgary was always expected to run through the West Division.
Almost nobody expected it to run through Edmonton.
The Edmonton Elks opened the CFL regular season with the longest odds to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel.
At +1900 odds, Edmonton surprised with wins in six of their first seven games, punctuated by a 36-34 upset win over the defending champion Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic Stadium in the CFL Week 8 opener.
However, the Elks have lost some of their shine following back-to-back losses to the Riders and Montreal Alouettes.
After a narrow defeat in the rematch with Saskatchewan in Week 10, Edmonton looked a lot more ordinary in Saturday’s 48-30 loss in Montreal.
With a date against the Toronto Argonauts on deck, will the Elks bounce back in Week 11?
Or was the last two weeks a more realistic version of what to expect in Edmonton the rest of the season?
Let’s dive into the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Tuesday August 11th, 2026.
All Eyes On Edmonton As Elks Aim To Bounce Back In CFL Week 11
Apparently, good things still come in threes.
At least, that was the case when the Riders and Alouettes played the Elks the past two weeks.
In Week 9, Tommy Stevens stepped in for AJ Ouellette and battered Edmonton’s defence with three touchdowns in a narrow 28-26 victory at Commonwealth Stadium.
Then in Week 10, Tyson Philpot exploded with 10 catches for 131 yards and three touchdowns in Montreal’s 48-30 victory at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium.
The fact that the Elks gave up a pair of hat-tricks to two individuals in back-to-back weeks is particularly concerning considering they didn’t have an adequate response defensively in either loss.
After getting punched in the mouth twice by a pair of Grey Cup contenders in Saskatchewan and Montreal, the question now is whether Edmonton has what it takes to bounce back as it reaches another key crossroads on its regular season schedule.
The Elks will play a home-and-home against the rival Calgary Stampeders on Monday September 7th and Saturday September 12th.
First up, Edmonton will host the Argonauts in Week 11 and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Week 12, before a Week 13 bye to prep for the Stampeders.
The Elks are coming off their toughest four-game stretch of the season, earning wins over BC and Saskatchewan, followed by losses to the Riders and Alouettes.
If they bounce back with victories against Toronto and Winnipeg, Edmonton will enter its Week 13 bye as a legitimate Grey Cup contender with an 8-3 record.
If the Elks falter the next two weeks, they’ll fall to 6-5 entering the home-and-home versus Calgary, and their early-season surge will seem like a mirage.
What must happen for Edmonton to get back on track?
It wasn’t that long ago that running back Justin Rankin was in the CFL regular season MOP conversation as a dangerous dual-threat back that was on pace to shatter the single-season scrimmage yards record.
After leading the CFL with an average of 162.0 scrimmage yards per game through five contests, Rankin has been held to an average of 64.8 yards per game in his last four.
Saskatchewan held Rankin to 28 rushing yards on eight carries in its Week 9 win.
Then Rankin didn’t have a single catch in Saturday’s loss to the Alouettes.
Rankin’s ability to run the ball and create explosive plays as a dual threat back kept opposing defences honest and prevented them from teeing off on QB Cody Fajardo.
As for their veteran QB, Fajardo looked unstoppable when he threw for a career-high 510 yards in the 36-34 win over Saskatchewan in Week 8.
While Edmonton’s offence still averaged 28.0 points per game in back-to-back losses to the Riders and Alouettes, consistency was the problem both weeks, including zero third-quarter points in Montreal over the weekend.
When Fajardo is clean and aggressive, the Elks have the weapons to keep up with any team in the CFL.
If they can get Rankin going again these next two weeks, the offence will be humming by the time they face off with the rival Stampeders in a critical West Division home-and-home in September.
Finally, the Elks will need more from a defence that entered Week 10 as the top-ranked unit in the CFL and gave up 48 points to Montreal.
Turnovers didn’t help the situation, and Edmonton look like a team that was overdue for a poor performance in the loss to the Alouettes.
On the heels of the toughest stretch of their schedule, the Elks defence gets a golden opportunity to bounce back the next two weeks against Toronto and Winnipeg.
The Argos scored 33 points in Thursday’s win over Calgary, but Chad Kelly threw four interceptions in the victory, and he leads the CFL with 13 in eight games.
Edmonton is a 3.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
Toronto is +162 to pull off the upset win on the road.
The Elks have gone 3-1 at Commonwealth Stadium.
Three weeks ago, they looked like the team to beat in the CFL’s West Division.
The Elks are still +480 to win the Grey Cup as the third choice behind Montreal (+195) and Saskatchewan (+400).
On the heels of consecutive losses for the first time this season, Edmonton is once again at a crossroads.
Take care of business versus Toronto and Winnipeg, and the Elks will enter their September rivalry series with the Stampeders as a legitimate Grey Cup contender.
The talent is there, the early-season evidence is there, now it’s up to Fajardo and company to silence the critics.
Edmonton has a chance to reestablish itself as one of the CFL’s best teams with a dominant win over the Argos in Week 11.
Let’s see what version of the Elks shows up on Saturday.
Have a great day, everyone!
