Morning Coffee: Analytics give Sorokin an edge over Vasilevskiy in Vezina Trophy race

Don’t sleep on Cutter Gauthier and the Anaheim Ducks.

The 22-year-old Gauthier recorded his fifth multi-goal game of the season and registered nine shots on goal in a 3-2 win over the Calgary Flames on Sunday night.

The comeback victory extended Anaheim’s win streak to five in a row, with a 12-2-0 in their previous 14 games dating back to January 13th.

At 33-23-3, the Ducks trail the Vegas Golden Knights by one point for the best record in the Pacific Division with one game in hand.

Can Anaheim edge out Vegas and the Edmonton Oilers for the division title?

Shockingly, the Ducks are the Pacific Division’s lone team with more wins than losses this season.

Anaheim should benefit from the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NHL, although a difficult stretch is on deck with games against the Colorado Avalanche, New York Islanders, and Montreal Canadiens this week.

The good news is that the Ducks will have the home ice advantage for all three games, as they’ve gone 20-8-1 at the Honda Centre this season.

Gauthier is on fire with five goals in his last five games, registering three or more shots on goal in four of them.

Hopefully, Gauthier can stay hot against the visiting Avalanche in a game with the potential to feature plenty of scoring on Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, after highlighting NHL futures plays for the Hart Trophy and the Norris Trophy to consider last week, I turned my attention to another fascinating NHL award market over the weekend.

Unlike in recent years when there was an obvious favourite to win the Vezina Trophy at FanDuel by this point on the calendar, there isn’t a clear frontrunner this season, at least according to the FanDuel odds.

Is the public overlooking the obvious top choice here?

Or is it a mistake to assume that the voters will give the edge to the goaltender with the best analytical numbers?

Let’s dive into the updated Vezina Trophy odds in this Morning Coffee for Monday, March 2nd, 2026.

Analytics Give Sorokin The Edge Over Vasilevskiy In Vezina Trophy Race

Connor Hellebuyck solidified his status as the NHL’s best goaltender when he won the Vezina Trophy and the Hart Memorial Trophy in 2024-25.

With a 47-12-3 record, a 2.00 goals against average, a .925 save percentage, and an NHL-best eight shutouts in 63 games, Hellebuyck went wire-to-wire as the obvious favourite to win the Vezina for a second year in a row.

Nobody was surprised when he entered this season as the Vezina favourite at FanDuel once again.

Five months later, Hellebuyck is a 250-to-1 afterthought to win the Vezina, with a 13-16-9 record and a .900 save percentage that is on pace to be the worst of his career.

Hellebuyck proved his dominance once again with an elite-level showing leading Team USA to a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics.

However, with Hellebuyck out of the Vezina picture, there is no obvious favourite to win that award at FanDuel.

Then again, perhaps there should be.

As it stands this morning, Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders are considered the top choices to win the award.

Vasilevskiy is -125, Sorokin is -120, and no other goalie is shorter than +1800 to win the Vezina Trophy at FanDuel.

Vasilevskiy’s 2.22 goals against average and .917 save percentage are the best marks in the NHL by any goalie with at least 20 starts.

He’s also tied with Utah Mammoth netminder Karel Vejmelka for the NHL’s most wins with 28.

Meanwhile, Sorokin ranks fourth in save percentage (.915), 9th in goals against average (2.47), and seventh in wins (22) among goaltenders with 20 or more starts.

While Sorokin trails Vasilevskiy in most traditional stat categories, the advanced numbers tell a different story.

Sorokin leads the NHL with a remarkable 27.8 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.com.

The difference in goals saved above expected this season (8.8) between Sorokin and Vasilevskiy is the same as the difference between Vasilevskiy and Spencer Knight of the Chicago Blackhawks.

Sorokin also leads the NHL in inner slot saves, goals against average better than expect, shutouts, and goalie wins above replacement.

Calder Trophy favourite Matthew Schaefer was the first star of Sunday’s win with three points as the Islanders rallied to beat the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers 5-4 with David Rittich in net.

However, Sorokin has been the club’s first star on many nights, making one big save after another while winning each of his last three starts.

In fact, Sorokin has been at his best since December, going 15-5-0 with an NHL-best .925 save percentage since the start of December.

In his 22 wins this season, Sorokin has posted a sparkling .941 save percentage and a 1.84 goals against average.

The Islanders, which have won five in a row to climb into third in the Metropolitan Division, wouldn’t be in a playoff spot without their star goaltender.

Interestingly, Sorokin and Vasilevskiy faced off only once in three head-to-head meetings this season – a 2-1 win by New York on home ice.

Sorokin turned aside 30 of the 31 shots he faced in that victory, with the lone goal he conceded coming in the final four minutes of regulation.

Sorokin was the second star in that victory.

He was the first star in each of his other two starts against Tampa Bay, turning aside 64 of the 66 shots he faced to outduel Jonas Johansson while leading the Islanders to a 3-0 record against the Lightning.

Looking ahead, the Isles will face the NHL’s 14th-most difficult strength of schedule based on opponent record.

That stretch begins with a four-game west coast road trip starting on Wednesday night with games against the Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, and the St. Louis Blues.

Tampa Bay will face the ninth-most difficult schedule, beginning with the first of a four-game road trip against the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night.

With the NHL trade deadline around the corner, it will be interesting to see how both teams approach the market.

As it stands, the Lightning are four points clear of the Buffalo Sabres for the Eastern Conference’s best record with two games in hand.

Meanwhile, the Islanders are jockeying for playoff position, tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for second in the Metropolitan Division with two more games played.

The Washington Capitals are six points back of Pittsburgh and New York in the Metropolitan; two points back of the Boston Bruins for the final Wild Card spot with three more games played.

With the advanced metrics squarely pointing at Sorokin, who has the Islanders in playoff position with 21 games to go, I took a flyer on him at even-money to win the Vezina Trophy at FanDuel.

The market being priced slightly in favour of Vasilevskiy suggests a bias towards traditional stats and a lean towards the Lightning netminder finishing strong.

However, the advanced metrics point to Sorokin as the unanimous pick at this point, and my hope is that a strong finish will help him secure the award and ultimately make his current -120 price look like good value.

The Islanders already have the obvious Calder Trophy favourite in rookie phenom Matthew Schaefer.

Sorokin’s performance and Schaefer’s arrival have the Isles on track for a return to the playoffs.

With 21 games to go, Isles fans are in store for an exciting finish to the 2025-26 NHL season.