The world will ask you who you are, and if you don’t know, the world will tell you.
If I could share one Carl Jung quote with the owner of the Atlanta Falcons Arthur Blank, it would be that one.
Choose your identity or someone else will.
The older I get, the more I appreciate that sentiment.
For the NFL’s 32 franchises, it’s about identity.
These organizations invest millions of dollars annually in their players, coaches, and front offices.
That investment is pointed at one identity or several identities hoping at least one develops into something that resembles success.
The NFC South is an interesting case experiment.
All four teams are plus money to make the playoffs at FanDuel this morning.
One of them must qualify as the division winner.
The Carolina Panthers won it last year with an 8-9 record, then nearly stunned the football world in a 34-31 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round.
That’s the dilemma that every NFC South team faces.
The division is wide open on paper and with a playoff spot seemingly within reach, it makes it easier to overlook a genuine rebuild from the ground up.
That is how the Atlanta Falcons got here.
In 2023, the Falcons were a .500 team entering Week 14 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.
Sure, their 6-6 record was inflated by a 3-0 record versus the Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints at that point in the season, but they were right there.
So, when they went 0-3 against the NFC South opponents and 1-4 overall down the stretch to finish 7-10, it created the illusion that they were close to a contender.
The Falcons went all-in on the QB position that offseason when they signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal, then drafted Michael Penix eighth overall.
Cousins was signed as the QB1 of the present, Penix was drafted as the QB1 of the future, and Raheem Morris was the leader of men that could get Atlanta back into the postseason after the position had been upgraded.
Three years later, Cousins is in Las Vegas, Penix is coming off another serious injury, and Morris is the new defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers.
After missing the playoffs with back-to-back 8-9 seasons, the Falcons hired Matt Ryan as President of Football Operations, who recruited Kevin Stefanski as head coach.
Ryan and Stefanski have outlined their vision for Atlanta.
Now it becomes a matter of execution on and off the football field.
Is Atlanta closer to a contender or a pretender?
Allow me to break down why I’m fading the Falcons this season in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday August 27th, 2026.
Are The Atlanta Falcons Closer To Contenders Or Pretenders?
Two years ago, the Falcons believed they could lock in both their present and their future at the quarterback position in one offseason.
Unfortunately, Cousins never performed at the level he did as a member of the Minnesota Vikings, as injuries and a change of situations ultimately took their toll.
With Penix already in the building and a playoff spot within reach in the NFC South, it was easy for the former brain trust to hand the keys to their QB of the future when Cousins struggled during the 2024 season.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, neither QB could end their playoff drought, which led to the organization cleaning house in the offseason.
Ryan and Stefanski inherited a roster that has a ton of skill but several key holes that must be addressed.
Salary cap constraints and a lack of draft capital limited their ability to maneuver in the offseason, leaving Atlanta in an interesting position entering Year 1 under their new regime.
The Falcons brought in Tua Tagovailoa as an inexpensive option with the idea that he could be their best option to execute a new offence under Stefanski as Penix worked his way back from injury.
However, neither quarterback has impressed during the preseason, and Stefanski hasn’t named a Week 1 starter.
Now it appears that Penix could win the QB1 job.
Atlanta’s offence will feature stars like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr., but the question now is whether either QB can maximize their talents in their first year in Stefanski’s offence.
Meanwhile, the Falcons defence set a franchise-record with 57 sacks last season, but Jalon Walker will miss the season with a torn ACL and James Pearce Jr. has been suspended eight games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
That tandem combined for 16 sacks last season, with Pearce leading the way up front with 10.5.
If the QBs struggle in their first year in a new system, and the defence takes a step back, where does that leave Atlanta?
The Falcons still have the benefit of playing in the NFC South, but their schedule isn’t very favourable outside of the division games.
Atlanta will open with three of its first four games on the road, travelling to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, and the New Orleans Saints.
After that, they get three straight home games against opponents that are expected to finish with better records than them in the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, and the San Francisco 49ers.
The Falcons travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, then return home for back-to-back games against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs.
If the offence doesn’t click and the defence takes a step back, will Atlanta’s focus shift from the present to the future by the time they get to their bye in Week 11?
The Falcons have failed to make the playoffs eight years in a row – the longest drought of any NFC team.
As tempting as it might be to go for it in the NFC South, this organization is desperate for a reset with a new franchise quarterback.
Atlanta is currently the third choice to win the NFC South at FanDuel behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.
FanDuel has the Falcons at +240 to make the playoffs and -295 to miss the playoffs.
Their regular season win total is over/under 7.5 and it’s juiced to the under at -130.
A couple of weeks ago, I told you I liked Atlanta under 7.5 regular season wins.
I also played the Falcons under 6.5 regular season wins at +125 and under 5.5 regular season wins at +220.
Could Atlanta surprise as a team that finds a way to stay in contention until late in the season?
Sure, but I think the more likely scenario is that they struggle early in the year with no major breaks in their schedule, before ultimately deciding their best option is to redirect their focus to the future with an eye on the 2026 NFL Draft.
Ryan and Stefanski inherited a franchise at a crossroads.
If they’re going to have any shot to turn things around, it will need to be a complete reset with a new QB, and a much more complete supporting cast now that they have an opportunity to reset their draft capital and salary cap.
Back-to-back eight-win seasons and a wide-open NFC South has created the illusion that Atlanta is close.
Hopefully, a tough first-half schedule ultimately forces the reset that the Falcons have needed for years.
I’m counting on it.
Have a great day, everyone!
