It’s the first day in nearly a month with no soccer.
No matches, no wagers, just a half-empty coffee and a chance to hit the reset button entering the elite eight.
Over the past 27 days, the best in the world have delivered on the biggest stage, exceeding every expectation I had for the tournament.
Hopefully, we can pick up from right where we left off on Thursday, when France hosts Morocco in the first of four tournament quarterfinal matches.
France, which was my FanDuel Best Bet to lift the trophy pre-tournament at +700, remains the favourite entering the quarterfinals at +180.
No other team is shorter than +370 to lift the trophy.
Spain is the second choice at FanDuel, followed closely by the 2022 champions Argentina at +390.
While France and Spain have cruised to the elite eight, it’s a much different story for an Argentina side that escaped another scare in the Round of 16 on Tuesday.
Despite being an overwhelming favourite to advance for the second consecutive match, Argentina found itself trailing Egypt 2-0 in the 78th minute.
Cristian Romero got Argentina on the board in the 79th.
Four minutes later, Lionel Messi tied it at 2-2 with his tournament-leading 8th goal.
Messi also set another tournament record by scoring in six straight tournament knockout stage matches.
Then at 90’ +2’, Enzo Fernandez buried the game-winning goal to cap the remarkable comeback.
Argentina became the first team to win a tournament knockout stage match in regulation after trailing by multiple goals with 15 minutes left.
It was only the ninth time ever that a team has advanced in a tournament knockout stage match after trailing by two or more goals at any point.
Per the FanDuel traders, Argentina could be found as high as +750 to advance live down 2-0.
Argentina to win in 90 could be found as high as +850.
At least on paper, Argentina was gifted one of the most favourable roads to the final, as a heavy favourite versus both Cabo Verde in the Round of 32 and versus Egypt in the Round of 16.
Despite the favourable matchups, the defending champs were pushed to the brink in both matches.
After being pushed to the limit by both Cabo Verde and Egypt, will Argentina’s resilience continue to serve them on their road to the final?
Or have the last two matches revealed vulnerabilities that have removed the illusion of invincibility?
Let’s recap Argentina’s path and set the stage for the elite eight in this Morning Coffee for Wednesday July 8th, 2026.
Argentina’s Remarkable Road To The Final Continues With Historic Comeback Win
As the defending champions and led by the legendary Lionel Messi, Argentina has become a global obsession.
The people’s champion, if you will.
I’m not sure that I’ve seen another team draw more support from the neutrals quite like Argentina.
Fortunately for their supporters, the road to the final has unfolded exactly the way they would have hoped.
Argentina was joined by Austria, Algeria, and Jordan as the heavy favourite to win Group J at FanDuel.
While three of the four teams qualified for the knockout stage, Austria and Algeria did so on the strength of their wins over Jordan, settling for a head-to-head draw in their final group stage match to ensure both advanced.
Austria – a 100-to-1 afterthought to lift the trophy at FanDuel – was no match for Argentina in a 2-0 loss.
Algeria – a 225-to-1 afterthought to lift the trophy – also proved to be no match for Argentina in a 3-0 loss.
After cruising to three straight wins in Group H with a combined eight goals, Argentina was handed Cabo Verde as its Round of 32 opponent.
For context, as special as the Cabo Verde story was to soccer fans around the world, no other team that qualified for the knockout stage had longer odds to get there than the African island nation.
Cabo Verde was +215 to qualify for the knockout stage and a 250-to-1 afterthought to lift the trophy at FanDuel.
They opened +1420 to advance versus Argentina.
Surprisingly, Cabo Verde pushed Argentina to the limit with a 3-2 loss in extra time, nearly pulling off the biggest upset of the tournament.
Next up, Argentina landed Egypt in the Round of 16.
Egypt capitalized on a slow start by Belgium to qualify as the second-place team in Group G, defeating another surprise qualifier in Australia in penalties in their first knockout stage match.
Believe it or not, Egypt had the longest odds to lift the trophy of any team Argentina has faced so far at 300-to-1 pre-tournament at FanDuel.
After rallying from down two goals in the final 15 minutes to beat Egypt 3-2, the stage is set for another seemingly favourable matchup for Argentina in the quarterfinals.
At least based on FanDuel’s odds, Switzerland is the biggest longshot to reach the quarterfinals.
Switzerland could be found as high as 100-to-1 to lift the trophy at FanDuel back in December.
Their odds were cut to 80-to-1 after landing in Group B with Canada, Qatar, and the UEFA Pathway A qualifier.
By the time the tournament rolled around in June, Switzerland was 70-to-1 to lift the trophy at FanDuel – the longest odds of any team remaining in the field.
As it stands this morning, Switzerland and Belgium are the biggest longshots to lift the trophy at 30-to-1 (+3000) at FanDuel.
Morocco, which was 55-to-1 (+5500) to lift the trophy pre-tournament, is down 27-to-1 (+2700) this morning.
Norway has gone from 35-to-1 (+3500) pre-tournament to 15-to-1 (+1500) as the fifth choice to lift the trophy behind France, Spain, Argentina, and England.
As I’ve done my best to highlight in recent days, weeks, and months, every single world champion on record dating back to 1986 was 12-to-1 or shorter to lift the trophy pre-tournament.
France, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, England, and Portugal were the six teams that were 12-to-1 or shorter to lift the trophy at FanDuel pre-tournament.
With Spain knocking out Portugal and Norway knocking out Brazil, only France, Spain, Argentina, and England remain from that original group of six contenders.
France remains the favourite to lift the trophy with a date versus Morocco on deck in the quarterfinals.
Spain will face a tough test versus Belgium, while England versus Norway is considered the most even matchup on paper based on the FanDuel odds to advance.
Will we see an upset in the quarterfinals?
A four-leg parlay with all four favourites to advance pays +200 FanDuel this morning.
For perspective, three of the four underdogs are +265 or longer to upset, with Norway priced at +186 to advance.
With France drawing Norway in the group stage and Morocco in the quarterfinals, there’s only one team remaining that will not have faced a single opponent that was shorter than 100-to-1 to lift the trophy at FanDuel before the tournament draw back in December.
That team is Argentina.
No team has drawn a more favourable road to the semi-finals.
Now it’s up to Messi and the defending champions to take advantage versus Switzerland with a trip to the final four on the line this weekend.
The stage is set for more Messi magic.
The entire world will be watching.
