This was always going to be the biggest tournament of the summer.
Still, I could never have imagined it being this good.
Following in the footsteps of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland delivered his third brace in four appearances to lead Norway to an upset win over Brazil in the Round of 16 on Sunday.
Haaland became the eighth European player ever to score in each of his first four tournament appearances.
After matching Messi and Mbappe with seven goals, Haaland to be the tournament’s leading scorer was cut from +3000 to +700 at FanDuel.
Norway to lift the trophy was cut from +4000 to +1600.
Next up, Norway will head to Miami to face England in the quarterfinals.
England took a big step towards bringing it home with a 3-2 win over Mexico on Sunday.
While Harry Kane’s penalty has him one back of Messi, Mbappe, and Haaland for the tournament lead in goals, Jude Bellingham was the hero on Sunday with a first-half brace that pushed England ahead 2-0 in the 38th minute.
Bellingham is the first player to score two goals at “Mexico City Stadium” in a tournament match since Diego Maradona did it in the 1986 semi-finals.
England to lift the trophy was cut from +1000 to +500 as the third choice at FanDuel behind France (+170) and Argentina (+440).
England is -210 to advance to the semi-finals.
Norway is a +172 underdog for that quarterfinal clash.
Meanwhile, France remains the favourite to lift the trophy and a heavy favourite to reach the semis at -430 to advance versus Morocco.
Morocco is +310 to upset France.
As we turn the page this morning, two of the four remaining quarterfinal vacancies will be filled with another Round of 16 double-header on deck.
Each of the top six choices to lift the trophy at FanDuel pre-tournament are still alive this morning.
That will change when Spain and Portugal meet in a heavyweight showdown that could double as Cristiano Ronaldo’s last dance this afternoon in Dallas.
Tonight, all eyes will be on Folarin Balogun as he attempts to lead the USA to a win over Belgium in Seattle.
A decision to suspend the red card issued to Balogun versus Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 has sent shockwaves around the sports world and changed the complexion of tonight’s Round of 16 clash.
Will Balogun’s availability be the difference for the USA?
Will Ronaldo play his final match on soccer’s biggest stage?
Or will Portugal upset the pre-tournament favourite to lift the trophy in Spain?
I could have never imagined the biggest tournament of the summer being this good.
Somehow, it’s about to get even better.
Let’s set the stage for today’s matches and lock in a couple of FanDuel Best Bets in this Morning Coffee for Monday July 6th, 2026.
Balogun’s Availability Shifts Market Sentiment For USA Versus Belgium
Balogun leads the USA in goals, shots, shots on goal, and expected goals in this tournament.
A straight red card for a foul in the Round of 32 triggered an automatic one-match ban that would force Balogun to miss tonight’s Round of 16 clash with Belgium.
On Sunday, we learned that the one-match ban would be suspended for a year.
Instead of being forced to sit out tonight, Balogun will start for the USA versus Belgium in the Round of 16.
How big of an impact is the decision expected to have?
The USA is a -124 favourite to advance at FanDuel.
Per the FanDuel traders, 89.9 per cent of the stakes are on the USA to advance.
What would that number look like if Balogun was out?
Meanwhile, Balogun has the shortest odds to score a goal of any player on either side in tonight’s match.
Per the FanDuel traders, Balogun has accounted for 50.2 per cent of the bets in their anytime goal market.
While Balogun’s availability has shifted the perspective of tonight’s clash, the betting sentiment isn’t overwhelming.
The USA has the home-field advantage in Seattle, and the decision to reverse Balogun’s ban
On the flip side, Belgium should be motivated by the decision to allow Balogun to play tonight.
While they got off to a slow start with a pair of draws versus Egypt and Iran, Belgium’s attack has exploded for eight goals in its previous two matches.
I expect that trend to continue tonight in Seattle.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in both teams to score in 90 minutes at -180.
I don’t love the juice here, but the numbers for this match have moved substantially since they opened.
Over 2.5 total goals is up to -245 at FanDuel.
Over 2.5 total goals in regulation is -158 at FanDuel.
With Balogun in the lineup for the USA, both teams have the attacking talent to make this an entertaining match.
If you’re looking for a longshot play, I’ll recommend a 90-minute draw at +240.
Meanwhile, Spain versus Portugal has all the ingredients to be an instant classic.
18-year-old Lamine Yamal has the qualities to be the sport’s biggest superstar for the next generation.
Tonight, he’ll suit up against the legendary Ronaldo in what could be the 41-year-old’s final match on soccer’s biggest stage.
The winner of Spain versus Portugal will be a favourite against either the USA or Belgium in the quarterfinals.
The fact that two of the top six choices to lift the trophy must play in the Round of 16 adds another layer of intrigue to a tournament that has already delivered plenty of unforgettable moments.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll go with Both Teams To Score again here at -166.
Spain has yet to concede a single goal in the tournament, outscoring their opponents a combined 8-0.
While they are a heavy favourite to advance again here, Portugal has the attacking talent to end their perfect run.
The biggest question for Portugal is how much they will lean on the 41-year-old Ronaldo with a trip to the quarterfinals on the line.
It didn’t take long for Goncalo Ramos to make an impact with the winning goal as a super sub versus Croatia.
Meanwhile, Spain has the potential to get better as the tournament continues, with Yamal finding his form after an extended injury layoff.
Unfortunately, this might be a tougher test than the one that the winner of this match will face in the quarterfinals versus either the USA or Belgium.
Regardless of which side prevails, I’ll be cheering for both sides to score at least one goal.
The biggest tournament of the summer has exceeded all expectations to this point.
Hopefully, the best is yet to come.
Have a great day, everyone!
