Morning Coffee: Canadiens back in familiar territory as road underdog for Game 7 in Buffalo

The Caniacs have had to wait a long time for a chance to watch their Carolina Hurricanes get a shot at redemption in the Eastern Conference Finals.

After the Hurricanes steamrolled through the first two rounds of these Stanley Cup Playoffs, their fans have been forced to wait a little bit longer for that opportunity.

It’s been nine days since Carolina completed a four-game sweep of the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday May 9^th.

Tonight, the Hurricanes will finally find out who their opponent will be as the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are set for a winner-take-all Game 7.

Regardless of which team comes out on top tonight, the Eastern Conference Finals won’t begin until Thursday.

That means Carolina will have 12 days off before Game 1 versus Montreal or Buffalo, which matches the NHL record for the longest layoff between series.

Meanwhile, the loser of tonight’s Game 7 will get an entire summer to second-guess themselves and ruminate on what went wrong in a series that has been pure chaos.

The Canadiens were 40 minutes away from booking their trip to Carolina up 3-1 at the first intermission of Game 6 at the Bell Centre on Saturday night.

Instead, the Sabres rallied with seven straight goals to extend the series to seven with a stunning 8-3 victory.

Can Buffalo book its spot in the Eastern Conference Finals with back-to-back wins for the first time in this series?

Or will the Habs respond the way they have after every loss this postseason and advance to face the Hurricanes?

Either way, Caniacs fans will just be happy to finally find out who they are going to play with a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals on the line.

Let’s set the stage and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 7 in this Morning Coffee column for Monday May 18^th, 2026.

Canadiens Back In Familiar Territory As Road Underdog For Game 7 In Buffalo

Imagine telling a Habs fan last summer that they’d get a Game 7 against the Buffalo Sabres with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line.

Not bad at all for a team that was 100-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel last summer.

Despite being one of the NHL’s youngest teams, the Canadiens have defied the odds all season, and their resilience has carried over this postseason.

Montreal is 5-0 after a loss in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Historically, home-ice has been an advantage in Game 7.

However, that might not be the case with these teams.

The Canadiens and Sabres are a combined 10-3 as the visiting team this postseason, including a 4-2 edge so far in this series.

While Lindy Ruff joked with reporters about trying to move Game 7 to Montreal, the numbers don’t lie.

Only the Colorado Avalanche registered more road wins (29) than the Canadiens (24) during the regular season.

Montreal’s road warrior success has continued this postseason as they’ve gone 5-2 as the visiting team.

That includes a 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 in the first round.

Buffalo has also produced a better record on the road, going 5-1 as the visitor compared to 2-4 on home ice.

Will any of that matter in Game 7 at KeyBank Center?

Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin admitted to playing “more aggressive” on the road after he registered five points in Saturday’s 8-3 win.

Dahlin is the first defenceman in NHL history to record five points in a Stanley Cup Playoffs elimination game.

While that monster performance accounted for a good chunk of his postseason production, it’s notable that Dahlin has registered three points in six home games, compared to 10 points in six road games.

Dahlin has never played in a Game 7 before.

While the Canadiens have the youngest roster in the NHL, the Sabres have the third-youngest roster, and none of them have experienced this type of situation.

Perhaps there is less pressure for Montreal on the road.

Regardless, they’ll likely need their goaltender to step up and deliver his best performance of the postseason to keep their season alive tonight.

Jakub Dobes has posted a 2.59 goals against average and a .906 save percentage in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Only Frederik Anderson (11.2) of the Hurricanes has a higher Goals Saved Above Expected than Dobes (8.7) this postseason.

However, Dobes has allowed at least three goals in three straight games, getting pulled for the first time in these Stanley Cup Playoffs in Game 6.

How will the 24-year-old rookie respond tonight?

The Canadiens are 5-1 when Dobes concedes two goals or fewer, including 2-0 in this series.

Montreal is 2-5 when he allows three goals or more.

The Sabres lead the NHL in high-danger shots on goal (106) and as we saw in Game 6, the tide can turn quickly if Dobes isn’t able to make the one or two big saves he’s made look routine in their wins.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens will look to test Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen early and often after he stopped all 18 shots he faced in relief of Alex Lyon in Game 6.

UPL was excellent in a Game 4 win in Montreal but looked terrible in a 6-2 loss on home ice in Game 5.

In fact, Luukkonen has allowed 12 goals on 63 shots at KeyBank Center this postseason for an ugly .810 save percentage.

If the Habs can find a way to solve UPL early in this one, it could give them the edge they need in Game 7.

Historically, the team that scores first is 152-50 all-time in Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 7s.

105 of the 202 Game 7s have been decided by one goal.

The Canadiens have demonstrated their resilience all season, including a perfect 5-0 record after a loss this postseason.

Dobes might need to be their best player for that trend to continue tonight.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in the Habs to win at +102.

Montreal was 40 minutes away from clinching a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals before things unravelled in a hurry for them in Game 6 on home ice.

However, this team has bounced back repeatedly this postseason, including a Game 7 win over a much more experienced team in Tampa Bay.

Hopefully, they can do it again tonight in Buffalo.

Enjoy the game, everyone!