It looked like a perfect week for 3rd and 1 at halftime of the Sunday nighter in Montreal. The Als took a 15-point lead into the locker room. They’d allowed just six points to the worst team in the league through 30 minutes and were comfortably covering the 7.5 points needed for this week’s column to drip with self-adulation.
What happened? Was the Molson fridge raided prematurely?
The Als were torched for 29 second half points and barely hung on for the victory. The reigning East division champs and early season Grey Cup favourites have some problems to fix, or maybe they were just a little eager to begin their bye. Either way, speculating about a potential beer-tastrophre reminds me of the annual blending of booze and livestock that is about to get under way in Calgary, starting with the Stampede Bowl.
Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders
The Argos offence is rolling with the return of Chad Kelly under new head coach Mike Miller. They’re averaging the most points per game, and the second most yards per game across the league.
Kelly leads the CFL with nine touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the Stamps are second in the CFL averaging over 35 points a game. It’s why the total is a whopping 60.5 points, but there are reasons to believe in both defences.
The Stamps have a dominant front four with the return of Folarin Orimolade, alongside Jaylon Hutchings, Miles Brown and Clarence Hicks. They’re tied for the league lead with seven sacks so far, including four against Nathan Rourke last week. It’s an especially bad time for the Argos to lose their best offensive lineman, adding Dakoda Shepley to the six-game injured list.
Kelly could be forced into some quick decisions, and he’s already tallied six interceptions. On the flip side, Dedrick Mills is the straw that stirs the Stamps offence with over 100 total yards in each game. But the Argos defence is allowing the fewest yards per game to opposing running backs. With both teams playing on short rest, points could accumulate a little slower than expected.
THE PICK: UNDER 60.5 total points
PLAYER PROP: ERIK BROOKS OVER 50.5 receiving yards
It comes as a bit of a surprise that the Stamps third-year receiver leads the team in catches, targes and yards, ahead of both Jalen Philpot and Tevin Jones. Brooks has been Vernon Adams Jr.’s security blanket on short-yardage throws. He’s had six catches in back-to-back weeks and he’s gone over this total in every game this season. While the Argos defence is stout against the run, it’s allowing the second most passing yards per game.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Ottawa Redblacks
The lookahead line was -6.5 until the Riders lost to the Argos last week, and the Redblacks nearly came back against the Als. The spread swung a full two points, down to -4.5. The Riders have been bit by the injury bug in the early going but they’re still the Grey Cup favourite for a reason, and they should be hungry after a home loss.
THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS -4.5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cars
It can be argued that no team has looked better than the Ticats. Bo Levi Mitchell continues to turn back the clock, completing 84 per cent of his passes with eight touchdowns in three games, including three against the Bombers in Week 2. The Ticats won that game by 10 and they can sweep the season series with a win on Sunday.
The defence can also expect a boost with the debut of Wynton McManis. It’s not easy to beat the same team twice in three weeks, but my biggest concern for the Bombers is their run defence. It’s currently allowing 35 more yards per game than the next worst team. Any attempt the Bombers make to be better against the run will be exploited by Bo.
THE PICK: TIGER-CATS -3.5
