Morning Coffee: Five things I think will happen in the 2026 NFL Draft

The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

In just a few hours, they’ll step to the podium and announce the selection of their new franchise QB.

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is -50000 to be the top pick, a number that implies there’s a 99.8 per cent chance he’s tonight’s top selection.

With a new franchise quarterback, a new head coach, and a new direction, the Raiders will get to work rebuilding a roster that will compete against the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and the Los Angeles Chargers in one of the league’s toughest divisions.

After that, it’s anybody’s guess what happens next.

As somebody who has spent the past couple of months preparing for the NFL Draft, I can promise you that the NFL Insiders, team reporters, and even fans are more divided on how tonight’s first round will play out than I can ever recall seeing before.

The lack of elite talent at premium positions has left the door wide open for the teams set to pick immediately after Las Vegas announces the first overall selection.

As we start the final countdown to the 2026 NFL Draft, allow me to sort through the noise and give you five things I think will happen in the 2026 NFL Draft in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday April 23^rd, 2026.

Five Things I Think Will Happen In The 2026 NFL Draft

Fernando Mendoza will be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Sure, a $100 bet on Mendoza to go No. 1 at FanDuel will only pay 20 cents, but a winner is a winner.

In this NFL Draft, the only thing we know for certain this morning is that the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner and national champion Mendoza is headed to Las Vegas.

What happens after the Raiders make their pick?

The New York Jets will select an EDGE rusher to bolster their pass rush with the second overall pick.

Two months ago, I recommended a bet on Texas Tech EDGE rusher David Bailey to be the No. 2 overall pick at +170 at FanDuel.

Since then, Bailey and Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese have flip-flopped as the betting favourite in that FanDuel market more times than I could count.

As of Wednesday morning, Bailey was the slight favourite to go second overall at -130 with Reese sitting at +110.

Then Bailey referred to Jets general manager Darren Mougey as “Monti”, presumably mistaking him for Arizona Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort, in an interview when he admitted he couldn’t have in-depth discussions with the brain trust in New York after a cancelled 30 visit.

That led to another flip at FanDuel, with Reese emerging as the slight favourite to be the No. 2 overall selection.

However, it wasn’t long before that market flipped again.

On Wednesday, I posted a potential solution to the noise on my X account.

From Mac Jones versus Trey Lance, to Juraj Slafkovsky versus Shane Wright, to Paolo Banchero versus Jabari Smith, we’ve seen some surprising draft day moves play out in recent years.

I’m not interested in chasing steam in the Bailey versus Reese market, but I do think the Jets will keep the pick and select an EDGE rusher at second overall.

Regardless of whether New York selects Bailey or Reese, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love should be a top five pick.

There are two important reasons Love should go top five.

First, he’s the best available prospect in the NFL Draft.

Second, Love is more than a traditional running back.

Unlike a running back prospect that might drop to the second or third round, Love has the unique combination of being an elite rusher, an excellent pass blocker, and a capable catcher that can make plays in the pass game.

Love has true superstar potential in a class that lacks elite talent at the top of the first round.

While it’s easy to dismiss the idea of a running back going among the top five picks, his potential to be featured in an offence the same way that the Atlanta Falcons have featured Bijan Robinson makes him a unique option.

With no clear game changers at the top of the board, and several teams in the top 10 that could use an elite back, Love should be a top five pick.

If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you know I have Love to be the third overall pick at +650 and to be the fourth overall pick at +115.

Love is -475 to be a top five pick in the NFL Draft.

While his exact draft position over/under is still 4.5, the over has climbed to +116 at FanDuel over the past 24 hours.

I’ll keep my eye on that number as another potential hedge this morning, with the option to head into the first round with Love to go third +650, Love to go fourth at +115, and Love to fall futher than fourth at +116.

For what it’s worth, I also took a flyer on Love to be the second overall pick at 150-to-1 back in February.

Stranger things have happened.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson getting drafted in the first round is the fourth thing that I think will happen.

Six days ago, I recommended a play on Simpson to be a first-round pick at -130 at FanDuel.

As of this morning, that number has jumped to -320.

Simpson’s exact draft position over/under is 29.5.

The Cardinals remain the favourite to draft Simpson at -170, followed by the Jets at +470, and the Pittsburgh Steelers at +900.

As was the case a year ago, the fact that some might not consider Simpson worthy of a first-round pick doesn’t necessarily matter when it comes to where he goes.

Several NFL franchises need help at the position, and that need will undoubtedly lead to teams reaching for help.

Simpson is widely considered the second-best QB prospect on the board behind Mendoza.

There’s no way that he should slide out of the first round.

If you think he does, you could still find Simpson to fall to the second round at +100 at FanDuel this morning.

Is it possible a third quarterback is selected in Round 1?

FanDuel has a market for 3+ quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round at +2000.

Miami’s Carson Beck and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier are considered far more likely to fall out of the first round than not.

However, there has been plenty of speculation that Beck could go higher than expected.

If that’s the case, 20-to-1 odds might be a decent enough number for me to roll the dice on another team to reach for a quarterback tonight.

Finally, Akheem Mesidor will be a top-25 draft pick.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Chargers have all been mocked as potential landing spots for the top Canadian in the NFL Draft.

I locked in Mesidor exact draft position under 25.5.

I also threw some coffee money on the Chargers to be the team that selects Mesidor at +650.

What’s your favourite bet for the 2026 NFL Draft?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.

You’ll find all my picks for tonight and my best bets for the Stanley Cup Playoffs there.

Have a great day, everyone!