Morning Coffee: Highlighting the NFL schedule release winners and losers

The full 2026 NFL schedule was revealed on Thursday.

All 32 teams already knew their slate of opponents.

Now they know the exact dates, times, and locations of those games, which includes a record nine international games played in seven countries across four continents.

For the second time in NFL history and the first since 2012, the regular season kicks off on a Wednesday night when the defending champion Seattle Seahawks will host the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch on September 9th.

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

The following night, the Los Angeles Rams will clash with the NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers in the first-ever NFL regular season game played in Melbourne, Australia.

The Rams, which remain the early Super Bowl favourite at +700, lead all NFL teams with seven prime-time games.

LA opened -2.5 versus San Francisco at FanDuel.

The Dallas Cowboys are a 2.5-point road favourite against the New York Giants in the first Sunday Night Football match-up of the 2026 NFL season.

Dallas is the second choice to win the NFC East at +200.

New York has the longest odds to win its division at +550.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will renew their rivalry on Monday Night Football to wrap Week 1.

Kansas City, which remains the favourite to win the AFC West at +170, is also -2.5 versus Denver.

While we can analyse the hardest schedules, easiest schedules, and potential edges, a lot can change in the four months between now and NFL Opening Night.

Let’s take a look at the biggest winners and losers based specifically on how their schedules are mapped out in this Morning Coffee for Friday May 15th, 2026.

Highlighting The NFL Schedule Release Winners And Losers

The Chicago Bears were among the most improved teams in 2025, winning the NFC North with an 11-5 record, then winning a home playoff game against the rival Green Bay Packers in Ben Johnson’s first year as head coach.

Franchise quarterback Caleb Williams took a massive step forward in his first year under Johnson.

Chicago spent the offseason solidifying an offensive line that played an integral role in Williams’ improvement, as well as upgrading a defence with holes at all three levels.

While the Bears are a better team on paper, they’re also an obvious choice for regression as they face the league’s toughest strength of schedule in the loaded NFC North.

Chicago has the NFL’s hardest schedule based on their opponents’ combined win percentage in 2025.

Seven of the previous 10 teams that faced the hardest strength of schedule on paper entering the season went on to miss the postseason.

The last team to win a playoff game after entering the season with the toughest strength of schedule was the Atlanta Falcons back in 2016.

In addition to playing each of the Packers, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings twice, the Bears will also play 2025 NFC division winners in the Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Week 1 at the Carolina Panthers.

With the NFC North set to face the AFC East this year, Chicago will play a pair of top 10 choices to win the Super Bowl in the Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

While they also draw the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East, both games are in brutal lookahead spots.

A home game against the Jets in Week 4 will have to be played on short rest after a date with the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 3.

A trip to face the Dolphins in Week 14 will provide its own unique challenge for Chicago as a cold-weather team forced to play in the Miami heat.

The following week, the Bears will visit Buffalo for a December game on short rest in freezing temperatures.

For the second year in a row, Chicago will face a tough slate of opponents to end the regular season with games at Buffalo, versus Green Bay, versus Detroit, then at Minnesota from Weeks 15 through 18.

In what was considered a down year for the Packers, Lions, and Vikings, all three of those teams still managed to finish the regular season with a winning record.

With the rest of the NFC North trending up in 2026 and the league’s toughest strength of schedule on paper, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears take a step back.

Meanwhile, the NFL schedule makers didn’t do the Pittsburgh Steelers or Dallas Cowboys many favours.

At first glance, it’s hard to find many spots where the Steelers have a schedule advantage over their opponents.

The same goes for the Cowboys, which will travel to Brazil to face the Ravens in Week 3, then to Houston to face the Texans in Week 4.

Dallas also gets back-to-back road games against the Packers and Eagles in Week 6 and Week 7, then back-to-back road games against the Seahawks and Rams in Week 13 and Week 14.

As for the biggest winners from Thursday, it’s clear the Jacksonville Jaguars were fortunate in a few ways.

Sure, two of their home games will be played in London, but we already knew that prior to the schedule release.

We didn’t know the Eagles will be coming off a highly anticipated NFC showdown against the Rams when they make the trip to London to face Jacksonville in Week 5.

We also didn’t know that the Houston Texans would play a division game on the road against the Tennessee Titans before heading to London to face the Jaguars in Week 6.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville will open at home against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 before getting a trip to face the Denver Broncos out of the way in Week 2.

The Broncos will play that game on short rest after an AFC West showdown at Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 1.

They’ll also have home field advantage when they host New England in Week 3.

That game will also be a potential lookahead spot for the Patriots, which play the Bills in Week 4.

The Baltimore Ravens will be coming off a game in Buffalo when they host the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

Finally, Jacksonville will avoid many cold-weather games outside of trips to face the Giants on November 22nd and the Bears on December 6th.

The Jaguars will have home field when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and the Washington Commanders in Week 17.

Jacksonville’s final three road games will all be played in indoor stadiums at Houston, Dallas, and Indianapolis.

Coming off an impressive season under first-year head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars will face some unique challenges including two London games.

However, all things considered, the schedule should work to their advantage with a couple of opponents in potential trap spots, while they avoided some potential cold-weather games in December and January.

Finally, a special shout out to the Los Angeles Chargers, which won the day again with their schedule release video on Thursday.

All eyes were on the Chargers again this year and their social media team delivered again.

Want more reaction to the NFL schedule release?

Make sure you tune into the Broken Table show on YouTube later tonight.

Have a great day, everyone!