The MLB regular season is a 162-game marathon.
It’s difficult to throw around the term “must-win” in April.
Still, there was so much tension during the ninth inning of Wednesday’s series finale between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers that it had a playoff vibe.
We can all agree it’s a good thing for the Blue Jays that they avoided a second consecutive series sweep.
The fact that they rallied from down two runs in the seventh inning to force LA’s first blown save of the season makes it even more impressive.
It also isn’t lost on anybody in Toronto that Jeff Hoffman was able to enter the game and lock up his second save of the season.
The Blue Jays have five blown saves already this season – tied with the Athletics for the most in the majors.
However, Hoffman was able to stare down the top of the Dodgers batting order, toss a couple of strikeouts, and help the Blue Jays escape with the 3-2 win.
It was an important win for Toronto, but there’s still plenty of work to be done to right the ship.
A win combined with a New York Yankees loss to the Athletics leaves the Blue Jays 3.5 games back of first place in the AL East.
Toronto is +500 to win the division at FanDuel.
The Blue Jays also went from +124 to +100 to make the playoffs after snapping a six-game slide.
Next up, Toronto will host the Minnesota Twins in a three-game series this weekend.
The Twins are coming off a three-game series sweep of the AL Central Detroit Tigers at home, and it will be interesting to see how both teams adjust this weekend.
In the meantime, the Masters begins this morning, the MLB season continues with a handful of matinees this afternoon, and we’ve got a full slate of NHL and NBA games on deck tonight.
I’ve also been locked into my final preparations for the NFL Draft, while continuing to work with the TSN Soccer team on the road to the 2026 World Cup.
On Friday, Steven Caldwell and Kevin Kilbane will debate which host nation will go the furthest in the World Cup.
The USA technically has the shortest odds to win the tournament at 55-to-1 at FanDuel, Mexico might have the easiest path to the knockout stage in a Group A that features South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa.
Meanwhile, Canada is the second choice to win Group B behind Switzerland, with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar rounding out their competition to advance.
The topic got me wondering – how many teams can win the 2026 World Cup?
If history is any indication, there are only five to seven teams that should be considered legitimate contenders.
Let’s dive into the numbers and provide some historical context in this Morning Coffee for Thursday April 9th, 2026.
How Many Teams Are Legitimate Contenders To Win World Cup?
There are seven countries at 11-to-1 or shorter odds to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel this morning.
Spain remains the favourite at +440.
France is a close second choice at +500.
England (+600), Argentina (+750), and Brazil (+750) are all shorter than 8-to-1 to win the tournament at FanDuel.
Germany (+1100) and Portugal (+1100) round out the teams that are 11-to-1 or shorter to win the trophy.
What are the chances one of those seven teams wins it?
The biggest long shot to ever win a World Cup was Italy in 1982 at 18-to-1 (+1800).
That was 44 years ago.
Since then, only one team has won World Cup with longer than 9-to-1 odds – France at 12-to-1 in 2018.
Even France was among the top five choices to win the trophy in 2018.
That means that since 1986, 10 of the last 10 World Cup winners were among the top five choices to win the trophy pre-tournament and had 12-to-1 odds or shorter.
If we narrow the list of potential contenders to fit that criteria, we are left with: Spain, France, England, Brazil, and Argentina.
From that group of five, France’s odds to win World Cup have improved the most since the draw took place back in December, dipping from 7-to-1 to 5-to-1.
Spain’s odds have ticked up from +400 to +440.
England’s odds have jumped from +550 to +600.
If I had to choose a World Cup winner this morning, I’d lock in France at +500.
While we are still months away from the tournament, my concern is that the trend we’ve seen in recent months will continue, and I’ll end up with a worse number if I wait to bet the World Cup winner in June.
Again, I’m not telling you that a long shot contender can’t make a Cinderella run this summer.
I’m simply highlighting that the historical precedents point to one of Spain, France, England, Brazil, or Argentina taking home the trophy.
I’ll lock in France to win World Cup at +500 this morning.
I also have Turkey to win Group D at +180 in pocket and that number is still available at FanDuel this morning.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for something for tonight’s games, I’ll lock in the New York Islanders -1.5 -105 against the Toronto Maple Leafs as a FanDuel Best Bet.
On the heels of four straight losses, the Islanders decided to fire Patrick Roy and replace him with Pete DeBoer.
Long Island is three points out of a playoff spot with four games remaining, so I’m banking on a sense of urgency tonight with a new head coach in a must-win game on home ice against an opponent that played last night.
A couple of weeks ago, the Islanders delivered as my FanDuel Best Bet in a 3-1 win in Toronto.
Hopefully, the circumstances help lead to another Isles win tonight.
Have a great day, everyone!
