Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are motivated to prove a lot of people wrong this season.
The truth is belief has never been an issue in this city.
The problem is the evidence.
Toronto went 32-36-14 last season.
Despite being considered an obvious playoff contender, the Maple Leafs ranked 31st in the NHL in goals against, went from first-to-worst in the Atlantic Division, and missed the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Matthews understands he can’t do it alone.
Then again, most Maple Leafs fans have shared the same sentiment when I’ve asked them what they think is the single-most important factor to a bounce back in Toronto.
“Auston Matthews has to look like Auston Matthews”.
On the eve of his 29th birthday, the Maple Leafs captain is at a crossroad entering the 2026-27 NHL season.
Matthews is now two years removed from his career-high 69-goal, 107-point season in 2023-24.
Mitch Marner isn’t coming back, and Toronto is counting on a couple of new faces fitting in next to Matthews on a revamped first line and No. 1 powerplay unit.
FanDuel set Matthews’ goal total at over/under 42.5.
They’ve set the bar at over/under 84.5 points this season.
Maple Leafs fans haven’t forgot Matthews’ potential.
Then again, Leafs Nation is banking on their captain reminding them with his production on the ice.
The good news is that both the fans and the betting public seem willing to give Toronto the benefit of the doubt once again, with a new GM, a new head coach, and a new prized rookie set to lead a new era.
Let’s dive into the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday September 16th, 2026.
Matthews, Maple Leafs Motivated To Prove A Lot Of People Wrong This Season
The Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup could be found at +4000 at FanDuel back in May when John Chayka and Mats Sundin took over as the new General Manager and Senior Executive Advisor, respectively.
That number has since dipped to +3000 at FanDuel.
For perspective, Toronto opened +1400 to win the Stanley Cup ahead of the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons.
The Maple Leafs were +2400 to win the Stanley Cup following Marner’s exit ahead of the 2025-26 season.
While they might not be a Stanley Cup contender, there’s certainly reason for optimism in Toronto.
FanDuel set their regular season points total at 95.5.
That number represents a 17.5-point jump from last season when they finished with 78 points.
The Maple Leafs are also considered a coin toss to make the playoffs at -118 to make and -108 to miss at FanDuel.
The Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals are the four teams in the Eastern Conference with a 76.2 per cent or better implied probability to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
The rival Montreal Canadiens lead the next tier at -180 to make the playoffs – a 64.3 per cent implied chance.
Then it’s the New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, Maple Leafs, and Ottawa Senators between -136 and -118.
Is Toronto good enough to beat out New Jersey, Buffalo, and Ottawa for a playoff spot this season?
Will one of the Hurricanes, Lightning, Capitals, or Canadiens suffer a letdown like what the Maple Leafs or Panthers suffered last season and open another spot?
The good news is that there are four or five teams in the Eastern Conference that aren’t expected to contend for a playoff spot.
The bad news is that the Atlantic is clearly the better of the two divisions in the Eastern Conference once again, with Florida a +190 favourite to win it followed by Tampa Bay at +270 and Montreal at +550.
The Panthers to win the Stanley Cup has gone from +1300 to +650 as the favourite since I recommended a play on them at the end of last season.
In terms of actual odds moves, Toronto from +4000 to +3000 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel is the second biggest jump among the Eastern Conference teams, albeit at a much longer number.
On the flip side, the Ottawa Senators odds nearly doubled from +1600 to +3000 at FanDuel.
Would you rather bet on Toronto or Ottawa this season?
Tampa Bay’s odds ticked up from +1000 to +1200, New Jersey went from +2000 to +2700, while Philadelphia went from +3500 to +4500 as another 2026 playoff team that could be in tough to make it back to the postseason.
As for Leafs Nation, would 43 goals and 85 points from Toronto’s captain be considered a win or a loss?
Matthews is expected to bounce back from a career-low 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games, but that isn’t the only key to the Maple Leafs competing for a playoff spot.
Chayka’s biggest bet of the offseason was on his goalies.
Toronto’s GM traded Joseph Woll and defenceman Simon Benoit to the Flyers in June, then signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year, $21 million contract.
Bobrovsky will be reunited with Anthony Stolarz.
Chayka is banking on that tandem being an upgrade.
How well the 38-year-old two-time Vezina Trophy winner Bobrovsky performs will have arguably the biggest impact on his team’s chances to bounce back this season.
Of course, Chayka has also attempted to upgrade a roster that ranked near the bottom of the NHL in shots against.
The addition of veteran Darren Raddysh is an upgrade on its own, and his presence along with the return of Chris Tanev should take some pressure off Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe.
New head coach Jim Hiller’s new system is expected to lead to more pace and offensive-zone time, which should also help alleviate the pressure on the defence.
Chayka added Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, Teddy Blueger, Dakota Joshua, and Brandon Duhaime to a forward group that will compete for jobs in a much heavier bottom-six.
It’s clear that Maple Leafs GM identified players that can play specific roles, play a sound two-way game, and add some physicality to the roster.
Then there’s rookie first overall pick Gavin McKenna.
If winning the NHL Draft Lottery isn’t a good omen for the new brain trust in Toronto, I’m not sure what is.
McKenna has remarkable upside and appears primed to play a big role from the outset in his rookie season.
While the veterans Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares will be asked to do some heavy lifting up front, an infusion of young talent is just as important with McKenna stepping into a lineup that also features Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan.
It’s easy to forget that Knies is still only 23-years-old.
Add veteran winger Jack Roslovic, who signed a two-year, $8 million contract with Toronto as a free agent after back-to-back 20-goal seasons, and you can see the vision.
The Maple Leafs hit the reset button this offseason with a new GM, a new head coach, and several key additions to the roster.
The next two weeks will be a sprint to make sure all the right pieces are in place for a fast start when Toronto hosts Montreal in its season opener on September 29th.
With a four-game home stand that features the rival Canadiens and Senators to begin the season, I’m looking forward to seeing how the 2026-27 Maple Leafs perform.
Leafs Nation and the betting public are giving Toronto the benefit of the doubt as a potential bounce back team.
Now it’s up to Matthews and company to prove their doubters wrong.
