Matthew Stafford has played at an MVP level this season.
If he wants to continue chasing another Super Bowl ring, he might need to do something he’s never done before.
The Rams are a 3.5-point favourite for Sunday’s Divisional Round showdown versus the Chicago Bears.
Los Angeles opened -4.5 at FanDuel, but that number has already ticked down thanks in large part to the weather forecast for the Windy City this weekend.
The forecast calls for the temperature to be -7 C, with wind gusts and potential for snow.
While Ben Johnson has made the Bears practice without heaters to get acclimated to the freezing temperatures, the Rams will head to Chicago hoping the weather won’t have a negative impact on their explosive passing attack.
Stafford, who remains the AP NFL regular season MVP favourite at FanDuel after leading the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdown passes (46) this season, sprained his right index finger in L.A.’s Wild Card win over the Carolina Panthers.
While Stafford was quick to dismiss concerns that the injury is serious enough to impact his performance against the Bears, that hasn’t stopped FanDuel bettors from fading his throwing ability in what could potentially be the coldest game he will ever play in.
Stafford’s passing yards prop opened 282.5 at FanDuel.
It’s down to 269.5 this morning as the highest number still available in market, with other notable sportsbooks showing 266.5 and lower.
Will the injury have any impact on Stafford’s numbers?
What about the projected freezing temperatures and the potential for snow?
The Rams are still a 3.5-point favourite across the board, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the weather report for Chicago as we inch closer to kick-off on Sunday.
The same goes for the conditions in Denver, Seattle, and Foxborough, Mass., although there doesn’t appear to be any major disruptions on the horizon as of this morning.
That doesn’t mean the other quarterbacks in action this weekend will face favourable conditions.
As far as I’m concerned, no QB will face a tougher challenge than Drake Maye of the New England Patriots, regardless of the weather forecast for Gillette Stadium.
The Houston Texans own the league’s No. 1 total defence.
Sunday’s showdown will mark the first time Maye will face an opponent that ranks in the top five in both total defence and scoring defence.
While Maye has put together some MVP-calibre numbers of his own for New England, this might be too tough of a test, even for one of the league’s rising stars.
Let’s take a closer look at the match-up and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for that game in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026.
Maye set to face his toughest test yet versus Texans
Maye is the youngest quarterback in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards, 30 touchdown passes, and fewer than 10 interceptions in a single season.
At 23-years-old, he’s also the youngest player to lead the league in completion percentage in the Super Bowl era, breaking Joe Montana’s record this season.
Last Sunday, Maye became the youngest QB to ever lead New England to a playoff win.
However, Maye looked shaky at times throughout his postseason debut, posting the third-lowest passer rating of his career in the victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
His 58.6 per cent completion rate was his second-worst of any game this season.
Maye was also sacked five times.
Now the Patriots are set to face a tougher match-up against arguably the NFL’s best defence.
Houston allowed a league-low 277.2 yards per game.
The Texans also held their opponents to 17.4 points per game during the regular season – the second-best mark in the entire NFL.
Houston gave up just six points and 175 total yards in its Wild-Card win over Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers was held to his lowest completion percentage (51.5), fewest passing yards (146), and the worst passer rating (50.8) in his playoff career.
Led by the league’s only teammates to both register 12 or more sacks in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, the Texans sacked Rodgers four times, forced a fumble, and ended the game with a 50-yard pick-six.
Five different players registered at least a half-sack.
Meanwhile, Houston’s defence also features four players with four or more interceptions in Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock, and Jalen Pitre.
Stingley, Pitre, and Bullock are responsible for four of the five lowest passer ratings allowed by any defensive backs that faced 40 or more targets this season.
The Texans’ defence had at least one takeaway in a league-high 15 of 17 games this season.
While the Patriots remain a three-point favourite at FanDuel, I lean Houston +3 in large part because of their defensive dominance.
We’ll see if that number ticks back up to +3.5 this week.
The dominant defence is the biggest reason the Texans have won 10 straight dating back to the regular season.
It’s also the biggest reason why I’m running it back with a player prop that cashed for me on Wild-Card Weekend.
I’ll lock in Rhamondre Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for the Divisional Playoff.
In case you missed it, we cashed Stevenson over 14.5 receiving yards in New England’s win over Los Angeles.
We also cashed the ladder escalators with 20+ receiving yards at +155 as well as 30+ receiving yards at +350.
Stevenson’s number has climbed because of that production, but I still like the over 19.5 receiving.
Stevenson has cleared this mark in six straight games dating back to the regular season, including three catches for 75 yards on four targets against the Chargers.
As impressive as TreVeyon Henderson has looked at times this season, the Patriots don’t trust the rookie nearly as much in pass protection, which is one reason why Stevenson has been on the field on passing downs.
The combination of an elite pass rush and secondary play will make this the toughest test Maye has faced this year.
I expect him to lean on his veteran running back once again to get the football out of his hands quickly and rely on Stevenson’s ability to pick up yards after the catch.
The Texans have allowed an opposing running back to pick up 24 or more receiving yards in eight of their last nine games dating back to the regular season.
With Stingley and company clamping down on his wide receivers and an elite Houston pass rush collapsing the pocket, Maye will need to rely on Stevenson once again in Sunday’s Divisional Playoff game.
Give me Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday’s game.
Have a great day, everyone!
