Morning Coffee: Nightmare performance in Atlanta could cost Stafford MVP

Matthew Stafford has played 17 NFL seasons and has never won regular season MVP.

One disastrous night in Atlanta might have just cost him his best shot.

Stafford entered Monday Night Football as a -250 favourite to win MVP at FanDuel.

Those odds suggested a 71.4 per cent implied probability that this would be the year that the 37-year-old QB would finally put it all together and capture that award.

The Los Angeles Rams were a 7.5-point favourite at the Atlanta Falcons, setting the stage for Stafford to cement his MVP resume with a statement win.

We didn’t have to wait long for everything to unravel.

Stafford threw three interceptions in a 27-24 loss.

After throwing two picks in his first 11 games this season, Stafford has thrown six interceptions in his previous two, including a second-quarter pick-six that helped Atlanta jump out to a 21-0 halftime lead.

In a span of two weeks, the Rams have gone from the potential No. 1 seed in the NFC to the possible No. 6 seed following back-to-back losses to the Seattle Seahawks and the Falcons.

Stafford’s odds to win MVP flipped from -250 to +320.

Drake Maye is FanDuel’s new MVP favourite at -475.

The greatest quarterbacks in NFL history have all had their share of poor performances.

Still, it’s hard to recall an MVP narrative collapsing this dramatically and this quickly.

Stafford and the Rams will return home needing a win over the Arizona Cardinals and some help to finish as the fifth seed in the NFC.

Maye and the New England Patriots still have an outside chance at the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but the most realistic scenario has them finishing as the second seed with a win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.

Four division titles and both number one seeds will be decided in the final week of the regular season.

Should we expect a couple more surprises in Week 18?

Let’s lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for the final week of the regular season in this Morning Coffee for Tuesday Dec. 30, 2025.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Seahawks, 49ers Week 18 showdown

The San Francisco 49ers spent most of the season as the best team that nobody wanted to talk about.

Prior to a Week 16 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the 49ers could be found as high as +350 to win the NFC West at FanDuel.

San Francisco was +900 to win the NFC Championship.

Fast-forward two weeks later, the 49ers will host the Seahawks with first place in the NFC West on the line in a game that’s considered a coin toss at FanDuel.

San Francisco to win the NFC Championship is +420.

There’s a potential scenario in which the 49ers win more home games without leaving the Bay Area to clinch a spot in the Super Bowl in San Francisco.

With a home win over Seattle on Sunday, the Niners would clinch a first-round bye and home field advantage for the playoffs.

In that scenario, the 49ers would need wins at home in the NFC Divisional Round and the NFC Championship to reach the Super Bowl in San Francisco.

While I’m not convinced the Niners can go the distance, I do think Saturday’s showdown against the Seahawks could go either way.

San Francisco has won six in a row to set up a chance to clinch the NFC’s number one seed at home.

The Niners’ offence has looked unstoppable at times, averaging 42.3 points per game over their last three.

San Francisco won the first meeting between these teams 17-13 back in Week 1.

A lot has changed since then, and the expectation is that the rematch will feature much more fireworks with the total sitting at 49.5 and shaded to the over.

The Niners just beat the Chicago Bears without Trent Williams and George Kittle, not to mention the stars they’ve already placed on injured reserve.

Brock Purdy owns the second-best EPA/drop back in the NFL this season and he’s accounted for 19 total touchdowns during San Francisco’s win streak.

While he’s made some big plays with his arm, I’m looking forward to seeing him showcase his mobility once again versus the Seahawks in Week 18.

In case you missed it, we cashed back-to-back collab bets with our friends at Betalytics on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

The first play was Brock Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards against the Bears on Sunday Night Football.

Purdy had 14 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter and finished the game with 28 and two scores.

I think we see him use his legs early and often again versus a stingy Seattle defence.

In the first meeting against the Seahawks, Purdy ran the ball five times for 17 yards.

With the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line, he won’t hesitate to take off when he needs to pick up yards.

Give me Purdy over 13.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Saturday’s NFC showdown.

Have a great day, everyone!