Morning Coffee: Packers rookie could get a Golden opportunity on Sunday Night Football

Is it just me, or did the first three weeks of the NFL season fly by?

There’s only so many game days every week, but it still feels like it’s been all gas, no brakes in terms of keeping up with everything that has unfolded to this point.

Josh Allen is the favourite to win NFL regular season MVP and the Buffalo Bills as the Super Bowl favourite.

Shout out to the best quarterback on the planet.

Elsewhere, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to clash with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday.

Both teams are still ranked among the top six Super Bowl contenders at FanDuel this morning, but the loser of that AFC showdown will fall to 1-3.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has emerged as the favourite to win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year after carrying his team to a 3-0 start.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the favourite to win AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year Micah Parsons as he makes his highly anticipated return to Dallas to face his former team on Sunday Night Football.

While Parsons will be featured heavily this week, I have my eye on another player that could steal the spotlight when the Green Bay Packers visit the Dallas Cowboys

Let’s take a closer look at that match-up in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday September 24th, 2025.

Packers Rookie Could Get A Golden Opportunity On Sunday Night Football

Matthew Golden has been waiting his whole life for the opportunity that’s in front of him right now.

It’s only a matter of time before he lives up to the hype.

The underlying metrics are all aligned for a potential breakout game against the Cowboys with the entire world watching on Sunday Night Football.

Let’s look at some of the advanced analytics that were updated by Fantasy Points Data after Week 3.

The chart above captures the average separation score versus targets per route run by NFL pass catchers.

You will notice Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the upper right quadrant.

This illustrates that Nacua and JSN have both operated as two of the best separators in the league at the position while also being featured heavily in their offences.

In the upper left quadrant, you’ll see receivers like Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, and Darnell Mooney – players who have received a significant number of targets despite an overall lack of separation compared to some of their peers.

The bottom left quadrant features players who have neither separated at a high level, nor have been targeted heavily like Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Adam Thielen.

Finally, the bottom right quadrant features receivers who have excelled at creating separation but have yet to be featured heavily in their offence in terms of target share.

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey continues to excel at separating from defenders but has yet to really be featured at the same level that he was last season when he thrived as a rookie.

Minnesota Vikings burner Jalen Nailor is another player who has consistently gained separation but has yet to be rewarded with a significant target share.

Finally, you’ll notice the Packers rookie first round pick Golden in that bottom right quadrant as another player that has posted an excellent average separation score but a relatively poor target share through three weeks.

According to Scott Barrett, who has helped pioneer the NFL Analytics at Fantasy Points, a high average separation score combined with a low target rate is one of the best indicators of potential improvement in terms of fantasy production moving forward.

Improved fantasy production means better numbers.

The Green Bay offence has consistently been one of the toughest to project for wide receivers over the last two seasons, in part because of the lack of a clear No. 1 option and in part because of the low target rate to the position compared to other offences.

The Packers offence has targeted wide receivers at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL this season, per Fantasy Points Data.

The fact that the franchise invested a first-round pick in Golden and he’s delivered right away – at least in terms of the advanced analytics – indicates to me that there is an opportunity for the Packers to target him more.

Factor in the continued absences of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, and the opportunity is clearly there.

Golden played a career-high 69 per cent of the snaps and ran the second-most routes of any Green Bay wide receiver in Week 3.

Golden finished with career-high numbers posting four receptions for 52 yards on four targets.

If you follow me on X, then you probably already know that Golden’s numbers could have been even better.

Considering his route rate has gone up every week, his average separation score is among the best in the NFL, and the Packers are already dealing with injuries at the position, there are plenty of factors pointing towards a breakout game for the rookie first round pick.

All we need is the perfect match-up on the perfect stage.

What about Sunday Night Football in Dallas?

The Cowboys defence ranks 32nd in the NFL with an average of 288.0 passing yards allowed per game.

That’s despite a Week 1 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in which Jalen Hurts targeted A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith four times and finished with just 152 passing yards.

This same Dallas defence gave up 361 yards and two touchdowns to Russell Wilson in a Week 2 overtime win over the New York Giants.

For perspective, Wilson was just benched in New York.

Last week, the Cowboys were torched for 298 yards and four touchdowns by second-year QB Caleb Williams in a loss to the Chicago Bears.

The Dallas defence ranks 32nd in the NFL against Deep Passing, 32nd in the NFL in Passing vs No Pressure, and 31st overall in Overall Passing Efficiency.

While Parsons’ return will steal all the headlines in the lead up to Sunday Night Football, the potential exists for Golden to steal the spotlight with the best performance of his young career.

Everything is aligned for a breakout game, although it is worth noting the combination of a strong rushing attack and an elite defence against an inferior opponent won’t necessarily force Green Bay to throw the football as often as they might need to do in a tougher match-up.

Golden had four receptions for 52 yards on four targets in last week’s loss to Cleveland.

One notable sportsbook opened Golden’s receiving yards prop at over/under 37.5, which I’d consider too low.

I’m looking forward to betting Golden 40+ receiving yards against the Cowboys as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll also be looking for Golden’s longest reception number and consider climbing the ladder with Golden at FanDuel once they post their alt receiving markets for the game.

In the meantime, I already locked in Seattle Seahawks +1.5 against the NFC West rival Arizona Cardinals as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 4.

That number for Thursday Night Football has already flipped to Seahawks -1.5.

It’s a road game on a short week, but I highlighted the reasons why I thought Seattle was a good bet as the underdog in Tuesday’s Morning Coffee column.

Make sure to give me a follow on X and I’ll make sure to post an update when the Golden numbers go live at FanDuel.

As was the case with the Seahawks line movement, I’m sure the Golden receiving yards prop will move quickly once more NFL Week 4 props are posted.

Have a great day, everyone!