Betting

Morning Coffee: Revisiting the best and worst case scenarios for Canada at World Cup draw

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Canada's head coach Jesse Marsch reacts during the second half of a CONCACAF Nations League semifinal soccer match against Mexico Thursday, March 20, 2025, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)

TSN will have wall-to-wall coverage of the 2026 World Cup Draw throughout the day beginning at 10 AM ET.

I’ll be producing the FanDuel Road to the Final special on TSN and TSN’s YouTube channel at 7 PM ET.

What’s at stake for Canada?

Let’s take a closer look at what’s on the line in this Morning Coffee for Friday December 5th, 2025.

Revisiting The Best and Worst Case Scenarios For Canada at World Cup Draw

Spain, England, France, Brazil, and Argentina are the five most popular bets to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel.

That should not be a surprise considering those are also the top choices to win the tournament pre-draw.

The good news for Canada is that as a host nation, they will avoid those giants in the group stage.

The bad news is that a potentially easier path to the knockout stage is baked into their odds to advance.

Canada remains a long shot to win the 2026 World Cup at 100-to-1 odds at FanDuel this morning.

However, the Canadian men’s national team is +600 to reach the quarter-finals of the tournament.

That number represents a 14.3 per cent implied chance.

While Canada will avoid the top teams in the group stage, there’s no guarantee they will draw a favourable group.

In the new expanded tournament format, 48 teams will be divided into 12 groups of four teams.

Canada will enter Pot 1 along with Spain, England, France, Brazil, Argentina, France, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and fellow hosts USA and Mexico.

Their group will also feature one team from Pot 2, Pot 3, and Pot 4.

The best-case scenario has Canada landing in the same group as Australia or Iran from Pot 2, Scotland from Pot 3, and a known opponent like New Zealand from Pot 4.

All those potential opponents have longer odds to win the World Cup than Canada.

If Canada wins their group, they will stay in Vancouver with a full eight days off before they travel for their Round of 32 game.

If they finish second in their group, they will have to travel to Los Angeles on four days rest for that initial knockout stage game.

A second-place finish in the group would also lead to much more travel on a potential road to the final.

If you’re looking to bet Canada at +600 to reach the quarter-finals at FanDuel this morning, you’re almost anticipating a favourable draw.

On the flip side, Canada’s odds could climb if they end up with a much less favourable draw.

The worst-case scenario has Canada drawing Colombia in Pot 2, Norway in Pot 3, and a playoff winner like Italy in Pot 4.

In this case, Canada would undoubtedly have the longest odds to get out of its group.

Norway is considered the top team in Pot 3 by far at +2000 to win the World Cup.

Meanwhile, there are still six playoff spots to be decided in the coming months, and a team like Italy would be a much tougher challenge for Canada if they got into the tournament than the opponents that have already qualified in Pot 4.

For perspective, New Zealand is 750-to-1 to win the tournament outright at FanDuel this morning.

Italy, which hasn’t even qualified and isn’t guaranteed a spot in the tournament, is +3500 to win it all.

For Canadian soccer fans, the hope is a favourable draw that sets the stage for a reasonable path to the knockout stage and beyond.

TSN has you covered with all-day coverage for the 2026 World Cup Draw beginning at 10 AM ET.

The FanDuel Road to the Final will be live on TSN and TSN’s YouTube page at 7 PM ET.

Have a great day, everyone.