Morning Coffee: Road To World Cup 2026 continues with single-elimination qualifiers

One of the greatest traditions in sports has arrived.

On April 22^nd, 1876, the Boston Red Stockings beat the Philadelphia Athletics in the first MLB Opening Day game.

150 years later, 22 teams will begin their seasons with the first pitch scheduled for 1:15 PM ET this afternoon.

The Toronto Blue Jays won’t begin their season until Friday night against the Athletics, and we won’t see all 30 teams in action on the same day until Saturday.

However, with 11 MLB games, 13 NHL games, three NBA games, four March Madness men’s Sweet 16 games, the Miami Open, and the Houston Open, we’ll get a little bit of everything on this loaded Thursday slate.

Meanwhile, we’re less than 80 days away from the start of the 2026 World Cup kicking off in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.

42 countries have clinched their spot in the tournament.

22 countries are in contention for the final six remaining spots that are still to be determined.

Those final six openings, which include the UEFA Path A Winner destined to join Canada, Switzerland, and Qatar, will be filled over the next six days as countries compete in a single-elimination format on Thursday and Tuesday.

Let’s dive into FanDuel’s odds for the World Cup qualifiers in this Morning Coffee for Thursday March 26^th, 2026.

Road To World Cup 2026 Continues With Single-Elimination Qualifiers

77 days out from the start of the tournament, Canada remains a 100-to-1 longshot to win the World Cup.

To help put that number into perspective, there are teams that haven’t qualified for the tournament with shorter odds to win it.

One of those teams is Italy at 30-to-1.

The Italians need a win over Northern Ireland this afternoon to keep their qualification hopes alive.

A win over Northern Ireland would set up a clash with the winner of Wales versus Bosnia and Herzegovina next Tuesday for one of the six remaining spots up for grabs.

What are the odds that Italy advances to the World Cup?

The Italians are a -210 favourite to win UEFA Qualification Path A at FanDuel – the biggest favourite in any of the UEFA Qualification paths.

That number represents a 67.7 per cent implied chance that Italy emerges as the Path A winner.

First up, Italy is a massive -1250 favourite for today’s match versus Northern Ireland.

If a FanDuel bettor wanted to win $10 betting on Italy to advance today, they’d have to risk $125.00.

On the flip side, Northern Ireland is longer than 7-to-1 to advance and 10-to-1 to win the match in 90 minutes.

For perspective, Spain, England, and France are all shorter than 7-to-1 to win the World Cup.

The fact Northern Ireland has longer odds to advance in today’s UEFA qualification match than three countries are priced at to win the World Cup speaks volumes.

It also speaks to the pressure on the Italians to deliver.

No country with multiple World Cup wins has ever missed three consecutive World Cups tournaments.

If they fail to qualify, Italy will become the first.

As it stands this morning, only nine teams have shorter odds to win the World Cup than Italy at FanDuel.

There’s no question Italy has the more talented roster.

How the Italians handle the pressure of the moment will play a major role in whether they get back to the biggest stage in soccer.

For the generation of Canadians that grew up cheering for the Italian national team because of their heritage, the team’s recent failures seem unfathomable.

As a kid growing up in Vaughan, Ontario, I can recall stories about team breakfasts watching Serie A and trips to Italy to play in youth tournaments.

More than two decades later, the team I spent 11 years representing is still called Vaughan Azzurri Soccer Club for a reason.

Growing up, there wasn’t the option for cheering for Canada in major international tournaments.

I remember asking my father, “if Canada was in, who would you cheer for?”

His answer was always the same.

“Both.”

Neither of us could have imagined that all these years later, there would be a scenario in which Canada had qualified for the World Cup, and Canadians were hoping that Italy would miss out.

Yet, that’s exactly the scenario we are staring down.

Canada is +550 as the third choice to win Group B on home soil this summer.

With Italy as a heavy favourite to qualify for the tournament and take the final spot in Group B, FanDuel has listed the UEFA Path A Winner as a +105 favourite.

Switzerland is the second choice to win Group B at +140.

Qatar is 30-to-1 as the biggest longshot to win the group.

Meanwhile, FanDuel has Canada at -220 to advance to the knockout stage out of Group B.

That number represents a 68.8 per cent implied chance that Canada will reach the knockout stage in June.

Switzerland is -550 to advance, with Qatar at +175.

Of course, Canada’s odds to make a deep run in the tournament would improve if Northern Ireland knocked the Italians out of contention this afternoon.

Northern Ireland is an 18-to-1 longshot to win UEFA Qualification Path A at FanDuel.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is 6-to-1 as the third choice.

Wales is just longer than 3-to-1 as the second choice to win UEFA Qualification Path A behind Italy at -210.

Canadians would strongly prefer if either longshot pulled off a stunning upset to qualify for the World Cup in the single-elimination format over Italy or Wales getting in.

We’ll take an important step to learning the final team that qualifies for Group B when the field of potential contenders is reduced from four to two this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Denmark (-160) is the favourite to win UEFA Qualification Path D over Czechia (+310), the Republic of Ireland (+390), and North Macedonia (+1500).

The winner of UEFA Qualification Path D will join Mexico, South Korea, and South Africa in World Cup Group A.

Turkey (-120) is the UEFA Qualification Path C favourite over Slovakia (+200), Kosovo (+650), and Romania (+850).

The winner of UEFA Qualification Path C will join the USA, Paraguay, and Australia in World Cup Group D.

Finally, UEFA Qualification Path B is expected to be the most competitive with Poland (+155), Ukraine (+220), Sweden (+240), and Albania (+600) all priced at 6-to-1 or shorter to reach the World Cup.

The winner of UEFA Qualification Path B will join the Netherlands, Japan, and Tunisia in World Cup Group F.

While the betting odds favour the most talented teams remaining in the field, the single-elimination format adds a layer of pressure that could contribute to at least a couple of surprises as World Cup qualification continues.

Even though Canada isn’t competing today, soccer fans across the country will be glued to their screens as we take an important step towards finalizing the list of contenders for the 2026 World Cup.

Some will be cheering for Italy.

Some will be cheering against Italy.

Regardless of who you want to win, these games will be must-watch TV as the road to the World Cup continues.