Betting

Morning Coffee: What are the actual odds the Blue Jays make the playoffs?

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FanDuel NFL Futures Day is Tuesday, September 8th.

24 hours later, the NFL regular season will kick off with a Super Bowl rematch: the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots.

We’re 22 days away from the start of the regular season, which means it’s time to lock in and hope that we don’t see any posts about the biggest stars on our fantasy football league rosters joining a growing list of injuries.

Puka Nacua, Drake London, Emeka Egbuka, DeVonta Smith, Jeremiyah Love, Jordyn Tyson, Breece Hall, and Kyle Monangai are already banged up.

With two more pre-season games on deck, all anybody who has drafted already can do now is hope that their stars stay healthy.

Meanwhile, we’re on to Week 12 in the CFL on Thursday.

On Monday, I wrote that the winless Ottawa Redblacks remain the easiest fade in the CFL this season.

The Montreal Alouettes opened as a 12.5-point favourite for Thursday’s clash with the Redblacks at FanDuel.

Ottawa is +530 to win that game outright – longer odds than Montreal to win the Grey Cup at +190.

Can the Redblacks pull off the biggest upset of the year?

While I’ve been locked in on football, a marathon MLB season has turned into a sprint to make the playoffs for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto enters this week a half-game back of the Detroit Tigers for the final Wild Card in the American League.

Do the Blue Jays have enough gas left in them to make a serious push for a playoff spot down the stretch?

Let’s dive into the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Tuesday August 18th, 2026.

What Are The Actual Odds The Blue Jays Make The Playoffs?

The baseball vibes in Toronto are much different than they were at this time last summer.

On August 18th, 2025, the Blue Jays were 73-53, sitting in first place in the American League East.

Following a slow start in the spring, Toronto flipped the script in the summer months, including a 10-game win streak that carried over from the end of June into July.

The Blue Jays rode the momentum of that turnaround all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, ultimately falling just short against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

One year later, Toronto has played the exact same number of games but has 12 fewer wins than they did on this date in 2025.

The Blue Jays are fifth in the AL East – 15 games back of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto’s minus-57 run differential is by far the worst in the division – fourth-worst in the American League.

In 2025, the Blue Jays surged in the summer months.

This year, Toronto will attempt to pull off an August heist.

The Blue Jays to make the playoffs could be found as high as +1400 at FanDuel on August 3rd.

That number represented a 6.7 per cent implied chance.

Two weeks later, Toronto to make the playoffs is +350 – a 22.2 per cent implied probability.

The Blue Jays have gone 9-5 in their last 14 games.

Three of those five losses have come in extra innings.

After going from an afterthought to live in the Wild Card chase, there will be plenty of close calls that could add up to be the difference if Toronto ultimately falls short.

For now, the focus is on what it will take to get in.

The bad news is that they are four games below .500 and a half-game back of the Tigers in the Wild Card race.

The good news is Toronto still has 36 regular season games remaining, the third-easiest strength of schedule, and the American League has been mediocre at best.

The Blue Jays remaining opponents have a combined .480 winning percentage this season.

Their toughest test remaining is right in front of them.

Tonight, Toronto begins a three-game series in Tampa as a +120 moneyline underdog at FanDuel.

The Blue Jays play three games at the Rays, followed by three games against the New York Yankees in the Bronx.

Tampa Bay and New York are a combined 144-104.

The Rays and Yankees are the only opponents left on Toronto’s schedule with a winning record.

If the Blue Jays can somehow salvage a split or better over their next six games, they will enter the final stretch of the season as a legitimate playoff contender with one of the easiest schedules in the majors.

Do I think Toronto will clinch a Wild Card spot?

The Blue Jays will need their rotation to stay hot, as well as their offence to continue to manufacture runs without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. available.

As I told the guys on Campbell and Gallo on TSN690 last week, there was value betting Toronto at +790 to make the playoffs last Tuesday.

That number is down to +350, and while I believe this team has a real shot to get in, I wouldn’t rush to bet them at their current number with three games against the Rays on deck.

Let’s see what happens the next three nights in Tampa.

Finally, because I started this season with the Dodgers to repeat as my World Series prediction, it’s worth revisiting what happened around this time last season.

A year ago, LA’s odds fluctuated a bit down the stretch, as the betting public bought into the idea that teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers could upset them in the postseason.

The Dodgers went on to win nine of 10 against the Cincinnati Reds, Phillies, and Brewers before going the distance with Toronto in the World Series.

While the Blue Jays are in tough to make the playoffs, LA is a deserved World Series favourite at +170 at FanDuel.

Perhaps something changes in the coming weeks that piques my interest, but for now I’m not willing to add to my MLB futures heading into the final stretch.

Have a great day, everyone!