Morning Coffee: What are the odds Edmonton can comeback against the Ducks

Seven minutes.

That’s how much longer the Edmonton Oilers needed to protect a one-goal lead in their most important game of the season on Sunday night.

They couldn’t do it.

Jeffrey Viel tied it at 3-3 at 13:31 of the third period.

Ryan Poehling scored the first-career game-winning goal of his NHL career just 2:29 into overtime.

Final score: Ducks 4, Oilers 3.

This was supposed to be the night Edmonton responded.

A core group featuring Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins playing in their 100^th career playoff games, with a chance to send the series back to Alberta tied 2-2.

Instead, the Oilers return home on the brink of elimination down 3-1.

What are the chances Edmonton wins the series?

Let’s dive into the latest FanDuel series odds in this Morning Coffee column for Monday April 27^th, 2026.

What Are The Odds Oilers Advance Down 3-1 Against The Ducks?

The Oilers opened -200 to win their first round series against the Anaheim Ducks at FanDuel.

That number represented a 66.7 per cent implied chance that Edmonton would win the series.

For perspective, only the Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning were bigger favourites to advance to the second round.

Seven days later, Anaheim is -480 to win the series – an 82.8 per cent implied probability.

Coming off their third straight comeback win of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Ducks gone from overlooked underdog to heavy favourite to eliminate the two-time defending Western Conference champions.

The Ducks are 6-0 all-time when leading a best-of-seven series 3-1.

Meanwhile, Edmonton owns a 2-7 series record when trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven.

Where do the Oilers go from here?

As I said ahead of Game 4, I didn’t like the goalie change.

Tristan Jarry has lost five straight postseason games and is 0-4 all-time in playoff overtime games.

Yes, Edmonton needed a spark ahead of Game 4.

I would have preferred it come from 97 and 29 then a goaltender with an .891 career playoff save percentage.

Sure, we can talk about the overtime winner, but the reality is that shot from Poehling shouldn’t have ended up anywhere near the goal line.

Connor McDavid registered two assists and nearly sealed a win with a couple of glorious chances in the third, but Lukas Dostal was just good enough to keep Anaheim in it.

Evan Bouchard scored a powerplay goal and finished with two points for his 27^th multi-point playoff game.

Still, the Oilers failed to reach the four-goal mark for the first time in seven games versus the Ducks dating back to the regular season.

That fourth goal might have been enough to send the series back to Edmonton tied 2-2.

Instead, the Oilers are staring down a nightmare scenario, one loss away from a first-round exit.

Will Edmonton go back to Ingram in Game 5?

The Oilers are -176 to win the next one on home ice and send the series back to California down 3-2.

The Ducks are +146 to clinch in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

If you believe Edmonton can still turn things around and win the series, you can find them at +360 to advance at FanDuel this morning.

After watching them fail to protect a one-goal lead in the final seven minutes of Game 4, and with question marks about who will get the start in Game 5, I’m not rushing to bet the Oilers to get to the second round.

McDavid and Draisaitl are the NHL’s best one-two punch.

The two-time defending Western Conference champions opened among the favourites to win it all this year at +750 at FanDuel last summer.

Yet somehow, they’re staring down elimination against an opponent that could be found as high as 390-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel, and just like the rest of us the best player in the world must be wondering how they let another opportunity slip away.

I’m not willing to completely write the Oilers off.

However, down 3-1 against a Ducks team that has looked a lot better than anybody was willing to give them credit for entering the playoffs, last night’s Game 4 loss stings.

Depending on how things play out, it’s the type of loss that could end up haunting the franchise for a long time.

As for tonight’s games, the Utah Mammoth have a chance to put the Vegas Golden Knights on the ropes with a third straight win in Game 4 tonight.

After dropping the opener 4-2 on the road, Utah has rallied with back-to-back wins to take a 2-1 series lead.

The Mammoth are -102 to go up 3-1 tonight at FanDuel.

The Golden Knights are -118 to send the series back to Las Vegas tied 2-2.

I’ll bank on Utah’s Dylan Guenther staying hot with 4+ shots on goal at +100 as my FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll also throw some coffee money on Guenther anytime goal at +165 odds at FanDuel.

Guenther has cleared this mark in all three games.

He’s averaged a team-high 4.3 shots on goal on 11.7 attempts per game – nobody else on the roster has averaged more than 5.0 shot attempts per game.

In Game 3, Guenther scored a powerplay goal as the Mammoth jumped out to an early 4-0 lead.

If Vegas responds with a better effort tonight and leads or keeps this game close for the most part, Guenther should make it four straight games with at least four shots on goal.

Have a great day, everyone!