The NFL is finally back.
After two primetime games earlier this week, the first full NFL Sunday slate has arrived and we couldn’t be more pumped for another year of best bets.
The opening two games of the season served as a reminder to manage expectations early in the season and to never back a football team 30 hours removed from a 17-hour flight.
But this Sunday we don’t have to worry about body clocks and international travel. Today is about winners. So, let’s find some.
Here’s our TSN Betting staff best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Domenic Padula: Colston Loveland over 52.5 receiving yards
The fun part is building the models. The tough part is that after spending so much time collecting the data, stacking metrics, and figuring out which number the model likes the best, we’re ultimately judged on one single selection.
I may or may not post a thread of my favourite Week 1 best on my X account @Domenic Padula but if I am going to be judged on one single play, it’s going to be Colston Loveland over 52.5 receiving yards.
Loveland led the Bears with 58 receptions and 713 receiving yards as a rookie in 2025. However, those totals mask the real breakout, which happened over his final four games.
From Week 17 to the NFC Divisional Playoff, Loveland averaged 94.5 receiving yards on 12.0 targets per game. He registered 10+ targets in all four games – the longest streak by a tight end in the NFL.
Chicago traded D.J. Moore to the Buffalo Bills, and Rome Odunze is banged up. Yes, Luther Burden could be in line for a big game, and the Bears can beat Carolina on the ground with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai as well.
However, the Panthers gave up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends last season. The Carolina defence also ran the third-highest rate of Cover 3 last season, which Loveland has thrived against.
Per Fantasy Points, Ben Johnson’s tight ends averaged a 31.3 per cent target share versus Cover 3 defences last season, compared to a 21.7 per cent target share versus other defences.
Loveland finished last season with a whopping 28.5 per cent target share over his final four games and the runway is clear for Chicago’s 2025 first round selection to pick up where he left off. Give me Loveland over 52.5 receiving as my best bet. Hopefully, we can start the season 1-0 on NFL Sundays.
Connor Ford: Chase Brown 20+ Rec Yds + Kenny Gainwell 15+ Rec Yds (+120 SGP)
Chase Brown remains one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL. Among RBs that saw at least 50 targets last season, he ranked 4th in routes run (398), 7th in target share (14.4%) and 5th in total receptions (69). While Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still Joe Burrow’s top options on offence, no one else has established themselves as a reliable weapon. Brown recorded 20+ receiving yards in 8/10 games to close last season.
According to Fantasy Points Data, Burrow was first among QBs in check-down rate in 2025 (13.5%). The Bengals offensive line has consistently been shaky over the past few years and they’re bringing back all five starters. Against a Buccaneers defence that allowed the most receiving yards to RBs last year, I’m expecting Brown to be busy in the passing game.
To get this two-leg SGP to plus money, let’s add on Kenny Gainwell to record 15+ receiving yards. Gainwell was 4th in RB receiving yards last season and his breakout performance earned him a two-year deal with the Bucs. He has always profiled as useful receiving weapon, so expect Baker Mayfield to look his way at least a few times on Sunday.
Drew Morrison: Chigoziem Okonkwo Over 2.5 Receptions
In Jayden Daniels’ rookie season in 2024, Zach Ertz had a resurgence finishing sixth in the NFL among tight ends with 66 catches. He was tied for fourth with 7 touchdowns. It was his first season with over 60 catches and 600 yards since 2019. He also had six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia. After Daniels missed most of last season, the Commanders targeted Okonkwo to be an even more dangerous pass catching threat. The Eagles allowed the second fewest receptions and yards to opposing tight ends last season, which is why his totals are low. But the Commanders will be forced to throw the ball and Okwonko should be their 3rd option after terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs, both of whom will be dealing with tough cornerback matchups.
Luke Bellus: Cam Ward to throw an interception +106
I understand we’ve waited six months for meaningful football and the first thing I’m doing is betting on something that literally didn’t happen last year, but That’s Baseball.
The New York Jets made history in 2025 when they became the first team to go a full regular season without an interception.
Now, they have 48.54 per cent implied odds to get an interception in the first game of 2026.
But I’m not just making this my best bet because I like the number.
I’m making this my best bet as a way to show belief in Aaron Glenn and his culture.
Glenn comes from the Dan Campbell coaching tree, and he seems to be following his playbook.
After bottoming out in Year 1, and trading away some veterans in the secondary, this defence should look more like how Glenn would’ve envisioned when he took the job.
Last year Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward only threw seven interceptions, another reason this number doesn’t make much sense.
But it’s Week 1, weird stuff is going to happen. Let’s capitalize on the weird.
I believe in you, Aaron. Go be great.
(A parlay off these four picks is currently +1288 on FanDuel)
