Week 2 is here. After a 2–2 opener, our TSN Betting staff is aiming for a 4–0 sweep on a jam-packed Sunday.
On to the picks.
Domenic Padula: Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards
The Eagles offence remains a work in progress, as evidenced by their latest shakeup along the offensive line. Cam Jurgens will move to guard, and Drew Kendall will get the start at centre. Philadelphia is looking to re-establish a dominant ground game led by veteran Saquon Barkley, but they’ll still need to move the football through the air and that’s where my best bet comes in to play. Dallas Goedert had four receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. All four of his receptions went for a first down, a touchdown, or a gain of 10 or more yards. Goedert ranked second on the Eagles in targets with five, trailing only DeVonta Smith (6). The Titans ran Cover 3 on 43 per cent of their plays in Week 1, and Goedert sees a 21.4 per cent target per route rate boost against that specific defensive coverage. I’ll bank on another big game from a star tight end in Week 2 as my FanDuel Best Bet. What could possibly go wrong?
Drew Morrison: Jadarian Price Over 1.5 Receptions
The Seahawks rookie first round-pick was handed the ball on the first play from scrimmage in the NFL’s season opener last Wednesday. He cut left, darted up the sideline and gained 13 yards on his first touch. Welcome to the league. Unfortunately, Sam Darnold went down with a hip injury at the end of the first drive and the Seahawks offensive game plan was limited with Drew Lock under centre. Seattle still won the game and Price finished with 10 carries for 52 yards and added two catches for six yards. Both of his catches came from Lock. Price was rotated in and out of the game more often than fantasy managers would like to see, but such is the nature of the Seahawks backfield, and the rookies’ role will only grow.
3rd overall pick Jeremiyah Love, who will be across the field on Sunday, said of his former Notre Dame teammate: “I think very highly of JD. Got to get him early before he gets rolling. It’s hard to stop him. He’s real fast.” Love’s warning speaks to why I also like the over on his yards at 7.5. This is a division game. The Cards are no joke. Lock will be forced to throw the ball in at least some 3rd down situations, and if ever there’s a doubt about what’s downfield, JD is there for the checkdown. We could also see some designed screens for a guy who averaged 14.5 yards per catch in his final year in college.
Connor Ford: Jaylen Warren Over 2.5 Receptions + Rhamondre Stevenson 10+ Receiving Yards (+109 SGP)
I loved Jaylen Warren as a late-round PPR RB option in fantasy football drafts this season. While the Steelers offence is far from potent, the idea was that Warren – who has already established himself as one of the best receiving backs in the league – would take on Kenneth Gainwell’s role as Aaron Rodgers’ favourite checkdown target in a more pass-heavy Mike McCarthy offence. Through one week, everything is going according to plan.
At this point in his career, it’s clear that Rodgers needs to get rid of the ball quickly to preserve himself. According to FTN Fantasy, he had the third highest checkdown rate in Week 1 (18.6%). The Steelers also had the highest PROE (+12.8). Warren only ran 13 routes against the Falcons, but he was targeted on six of those for 27 yards on 5 receptions. Against a Patriots defence that allowed the fourth most receptions to RBs last year, I like Warren to go over 2.5.
I’ll also add on Rhamondre Stevenson to record 10+ receiving yards to get this SGP to plus money. He led all RBs with 32 routes run in Week 1 and is averaging over 35 receiving yards in his last six games. No AJ Brown for the Patriots and Bijan Robinson just went for 90 yards against this Steelers defence. Stevenson should continue to be heavily involved while TreVeyon Henderson works his way back from an ankle injury.
Luke Bellus: Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards (+100)
In 30 games against the NFC Lamar Jackson has 2005 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
That’s 66.83 rushing yards per game, a number that sits 14.4 yards higher than 52.37 per game against the AFC.
Today he takes on the New Orleans Saints, a team that went to overtime last week and plays there home games in a dome.
Now the Saints are outdoors taking on Jackson at the freshest and healthiest we’ve seen him in what seems to be a few years.
Last week Jackson used his legs seven times for 40 yards. Last season Jackson only rushed the ball seven-times or more in a game four times.
I’ll be on Lamar to score today, but for a best let’s get those legs moving a little more and run for at least 40 yards.
