The 2025 Las Vegas Raiders were a complete disaster.
The only silver lining was landing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and the opportunity to select a franchise quarterback as they hit the reset button again.
On April 23rd, the Raiders are expected to place their bet on Fernando Mendoza when they draft him No. 1 overall.
Whether or not that bet is a winner largely depends on the steps the organization takes to build around him.
Apparently, this time, owner Mark Davis understands the importance of getting it right.
His desperation to bring a contender to Las Vegas led him to seven-time Super Bowl champion and minority owner Tom Brady, who has worked with Davis and second-year general manager John Spytek on a vision for the future.
In February, they hired 38-year-old Klint Kubiak as head coach with the belief that he can help them turn that vision into a reality.
Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick is -20000 at FanDuel – a 99.5 per cent implied probability.
After a busy free agency period in which they landed the top offensive lineman in centre Tyler Linderbaum, wide receiver Jailen Nailor, and fullback Connor Heyward, the offence should remain a top priority for Las Vegas at the NFL Draft beyond the first overall pick.
The problem is that the Raiders aren’t scheduled to pick again until the second round.
It appeared Las Vegas had addressed that problem with a proposed trade that would have sent Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for two first round picks, including this year’s 14th overall selection.
Instead, the Ravens nixed that trade due to medical concerns, and the Raiders ended up with one pick in each of the first three rounds, plus three fourth-round picks.
Could Las Vegas package those fourth-round picks to move back into the first or second round?
Is there a deal to be made involving Crosby and another team?
With or without Crosby, the Raiders still have a ton of work to do on both sides of the football.
However, they won’t be able to address all their needs in one offseason.
If the top priority is to draft and develop Mendoza as a franchise quarterback, then upgrading the offensive line and wide receiver positions is a must.
The Raiders offensive line allowed a league-high 64 sacks and the league’s highest run stuff rate.
If they can improve a group that ranked 32nd in the NFL in EPA per carry and short-yardage success rate, it will help unlock running back Ashton Jeanty and the ground game.
An improved rushing attack will take a significant amount of pressure off the pass protection and quarterback.
A record-breaking three-year, $81 million contract for Linderbaum is a massive step in the right direction, but the Raiders could still use upgrades at tackle and guard.
Meanwhile, wide receiver is another important position of need as Las Vegas enters the final countdown to the NFL Draft with Nailor, 2023 third round pick Tre Tucker, and 2025 second round pick Jack Bech at the top of their depth chart.
Nailor is listed at 5’11’’ and 190 pounds.
Tucker is listed at 5’8’’ and 182 pounds.
Bech is listed 6’1’’ and 214 pounds.
The Raiders will need to find Mendoza a traditional X receiver with the length and strength to win downfield against some of the better cornerbacks in the league.
The Raiders are set at tight end with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, and they have a potential superstar at running back in 2025 first round pick Ashton Jeanty.
A physically dominant big-bodied wide receiver that can stretch the field and improved offensive line play are the final pieces needed to unlock the potential of Kubiak’s offence in Mendoza’s rookie season.
My bold prediction is Las Vegas will be aggressive looking to trade back into the first and second round as they try to address one or both of those needs at the NFL Draft.
The Raiders have earned high marks bringing in Kubiak as head coach and spending big to upgrade on both sides of the football in free agency.
Now they need to nail down the rest of the supporting cast and make sure they put their new franchise QB in the best possible position to succeed.
Ultimately, winning is everything in the NFL, but after decades of dysfunction, the smart money is on Las Vegas building a solid foundation instead of chasing quick fixes.
The fact they are +1800 to win a division that features three of the top six choices to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC should help the Raiders remain patient.
Brady’s presence combined with Kubiak’s installation of an offensive system that helped the Seattle Seahawks win a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold is enough for me to buy the idea that this time Las Vegas might finally get it right.
The Raiders are on the clock with the first overall pick.
It’s what they do after that selection that will determine whether this latest franchise reset is ultimately a success or just another sad sequel in Las Vegas.
