No team in the East has done enough to separate itself from the pack.
While the top two seeds in the West have already punched their tickets to the semifinals, every Eastern Conference matchup currently sits 3-2.
The Detroit Pistons are the lone home-seed to be playing from behind, surviving an elimination game on Wednesday thanks to Cade Cunningham’s heroic 45-point performance.
All other favourites have a chance to advance with a win on the road.
Projecting forward, here are the prices for the Top 5 teams in the East to make the semis and the Finals.
| Team | Odds to make East Final | Odds to reach NBA Finals |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | -2200 | +115 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | -1500 | +260 |
| New York Knicks | -900 | +470 |
| Detroit Pistons | +120 | +850 |
| Orlando Magic | -142 | +3000 |
Four teams currently sit at 10-to-1 or shorter to reach the NBA Finals.
Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder are priced at -240 while the San Antonio Spurs are the only other team shorter than 10-to-1.
Credit to the Toronto Raptors for putting up an encouraging postseason performance, but for today’s exercise, I’m going to focus on the Top 5 and rank them based on which bet yields the most value in my opinion.
Boston Celtics, +115 to make Finals
The Celtics are understandably the betting favourites to win the East.
They finished second in the regular season with the lone team ahead of them on the brink of elimination.
Jayson Tatum would be -10000 if the NBA handed out a Comeback Player of the Year award.
His return to this form is the single biggest needle mover and justifies Boston’s stance atop the East.
At a 46.5 percent implied probability though, I’m just not sure their ticket to the NBA Finals is that locked in.
Two glaring holes stick out to me.
First is their lack of rim protection.
The return of Joel Embiid over the last two games has proven that the Celtics can be exposed at the rim.
Their entire defensive scheme is catered to limiting looks at the rim, yet Embiid got 14 points in the paint shooting 7-of-9.
Neemias Queta was deservedly in the MIP mix, but he can’t hang with an offensive heavyweight like Embiid.
Nikola Vucevic has been a below-average defender for a while now and isn’t their answer.
The second concern I have is their overdependence on the deep ball.
I get head coach Joe Mazzulla’s stubborn belief in the math, but moments like their 14-shot drought in Game 5 exacerbate how one-dimensional they can be.
Don’t forget in their semifinal battle with New York last playoffs, Boston shot 25 percent from three in Games 1 and 2 which ultimately was a hole they couldn’t dig out of.
Value ranking: 2 out of 5
Cleveland Cavaliers, +260 to make Finals
Of all teams here, we as Toronto fans clearly have the most visibility on this contender.
No honest Cavs fan can say to themselves that this opening round has been encouraging.
Cleveland’s twin towers are proving that they’re not the defensive stalwarts we’ve been led to believe.
Toronto is third in the playoffs with 51.6 points in the paint, a major indictment on their rim protection.
I’m also concerned with Donovan Mitchell’s inability to breakthrough Toronto’s defence.
Even though Scottie Barnes is an All-NBA defender, his disappear over these past three games must be ringing the alarm bells.
The Cavs have ultimately been exposed as a soft team that lacks the toughness of a true championship contender.
Should they advance to the semifinals, both potential opponents play a brand of basketball that likely overpowers them.
Value ranking: 5 out of 5
New York Knicks, +460 to make Finals
If not for two CJ McCollum backbreaking daggers, New York would already be resting in Madison Square Garden waiting on their next opponent.
The Knicks currently own the third-best net rating only behind the Thunder and Spurs.
Though they’re 3-2 like five other teams, they’ve looked the most complete of the bunch.
Their offence is humming as expected but their defence is surprisingly ranked fourth amongst playoff teams.
That’ll be key for them if they get through the East.
For as gifted as Jalen Brunson is offensively, his clutch time defence is quickly proving to be a liability.
Atlanta’s gameplan in both comebacks was clear as day – keep switching until someone gets Brunson in a 1-on-1 matchup.
Beyond that though, the team has collectively done a good job funnelling Atlanta into the mid-range and keeping points in the paint at a minimum (45.2, 7th).
The Hawks have been held to the fifth-worst three-point percentage and that perimeter defence will be critical in a potential rematch with the Celtics.
Boston had a more complete roster last season and were still unable to beat the Knicks.
New York comes into this postseason with better depth and improved continuity.
They are my favourite bet at their price to make a Finals appearance.
Value ranking: 1 out of 5
Detroit Pistons, +850 to make Finals
Credit to Detroit for an incredible season that shattered every projection in existence.
This is a franchise that went from losing a record-breaking 28 straight games two seasons ago to finishing atop the Eastern Conference with 60 wins.
They’ve made just four postseason appearances since the 2010s and are at risk of exiting in the first round for a fourth-straight time.
Cunningham currently sits second in postseason scoring at 32.6 ppg, only behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
He will finish on the All-NBA Second Team at worst and was deservedly in the mix for MVP up until his collapsed lung injury.
When it comes to championship aspirations though, Detroit’s reluctance to push their chips in at the deadline is now haunting them.
Orlando has done a fantastic job top-blocking his teammates on the perimeter and sending extra help to Jalen Duren on pick-and-rolls.
This has resulted in Cunningham committing a league-high 33 turnovers through five games.
To Detroit’s credit, their calling card all season has been defence and that’s held true in the playoffs.
They had the second-best defensive rating this year and hold the same position in the postseason.
My worry betting them to make the finals comes down to their one-dimensional offence.
I think Orlando has exposed them and given other teams a gameplan for how to neutralize them on that end in series to come.
Value ranking: 3 out of 5
Orlando Magic, +3000 to make Finals
For a team that looked to be on the brink of collapse ahead of the play-in tournament, the Magic have shockingly locked in and morphed back into the team that held the third-shortest odds to win the East heading into the season.
Their relentless brand of defence has them one win away from pulling off the seventh 8-seed upset in NBA history.
As strong as their defence has been, Orlando’s offence continues to be inefficient.
They currently rank second-last in offensive rating, hold the second-worst true shooting percentage and average the fewest assists per game.
All their success is accredited to their defensive acumen but up against more potent teams like Cleveland, Boston or New York, I worry about their offence to come through for four games.
The Magic have been a nice story in a league where chalk almost always prevails in Round 1.
But with Franz Wagner’s injury also looking to be more serious than first reported, I would only bet the smallest of wagers on an Orlando dart throw.
Value ranking: 4 out of 5
