It’s the first day above freezing in weeks here in Toronto, and the sprint to April basketball couldn’t come sooner.
The dog days of the NBA season is anecdotally known as the window between Christmas and All-Star Weekend.
The shine of a new year has all but worn off by the holidays, but the urgency to ramp up for the playoffs has still not kicked in.
Teams will now have 27 or so games remaining after All-Star Weekend, roughly one-third of the regular season to go.
This won’t just be a race for championship contenders but also for potential award winners.
With the 65-game minimum in place, I’m fascinated to see how it affects the total number of games several stars play.
Outside of Rookie of the Year, there is still plenty of room for movement.
Let’s pause at this checkpoint and break down where opportunity lies in some of these markets.
Most Valuable Player
As of now, here are the Top 5 choices on FanDuel:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, -220
Nikola Jokic, +300
Cade Cunningham, +2000
Luka Doncic, +2000
Jaylen Brown, +4000
At the start of the season, this was expected to be a five-horse race between SGA, Jokic, Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Victor Wembanyama.
Kalshi’s newest shareholder is out of the running as he’s unable to hit the game minimum while the Frenchman is technically still in the race but off the board.
With Shai also sidelined at the moment and Doncic having missed 10 games already, this award is setting up to be a battle of attrition.
Now that the Joker is back on the court, he has the thinnest of margins to remain eligible.
Of Denver’s 28 remaining games, he can only miss one more.
Two absences and he’ll join Antetokounmpo.
While all signs point to SGA hitting his games floor, each additional game missed gives his competitors more claim to the crown.
The crutch of his candidacy came down to OKC’s dominance after opening 24-1.
If the unthinkable happens and they lose the best record to the Pistons or another team, you can just about throw his case out the door.
If we’re to hit the bet button today, I’d take a shot at Jokic playing outright and joining LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain on the list of four-time MVP winners.
The Pick: Nikola Jokic, MVP (+300)
Clutch Player
The NBA began handing out the Jerry West Trophy in 2022-23, and the formula for who wins this award continues to be refined.
What’s remained universal is total clutch time points.
De’Aaron Fox led the NBA in 2023, Stephen Curry did in 2024 and Jalen Brunson was one off Anthony Edwards but wound up taking this trophy last year.
Shooting efficiency, team record and net rating are the other categories of importance but not 100 percent correlated to past winners.
Defensive stats have yet to be a factor.
Heading into the final stretch, this is your current leaderboard:
Anthony Edwards, +120
Tyrese Maxey, +350
Cade Cunningham, +400
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, +800
Jamal Murray, +1500
Unsurprisingly, they are also the Top 5 in total clutch points.
Maxey - 138 minutes, 136 points
Gilgeous-Alexander – 91 minutes, 128 points
Cunningham – 97 minutes, 115 points
Edwards - 82 minutes, 113 points
Murray – 106 minutes, 96 points
Predicting overtime frequency is an impossible task, but with one double OT game, any of these players could jump straight to the top of the list.
There is no clear leader; all five are in the chase pack.
So as I read the tea leaves, I see the most value in SGA at +800.
If the award were to be voted on today, he’s the most deserving.
He’s second in clutch points but has played 47 minutes less than Maxey.
His 50 percent field-goal percentage is third only behind Edwards at 59 percent and Murray at 52.
Finally, OKC has a 12-7 record in clutch games, Detroit is the only above them at 19-8.
He has a +65 net rating which is easily tops among the group.
The knock on his case is remaining clutch time games played.
FanDuel clearly expects OKC to be less involved than the other four teams.
But given how the Thunder have cooled off, I’m not sure it’ll be that smooth for OKC post-ASW.
As of writing, OKC owns the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule.
They face Denver three more times.
They have two remaining against Detroit, New York, Boston and Los Angeles.
SGA is in the midst of his most efficient shooting season of his career and just one point off his average from last year’s MVP season.
I’m one to believe if Jokic manages to snatch MVP away from the Canadian, voters might offer a concession endorsement to SGA for clutch.
The reigning MVP clearly has the usage and pedigree to be labelled the league’s most clutch player.
Will he play enough games to be in the mix?
At the current price, it’s my favourite swing of the bunch.
The Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Clutch Award (+800)
Coach of the Year
I want to use a golf analogy to illustrate my thoughts on the COTY battle.
Breaking 100 is commonly accepted as a major milestone for the casual golfer.
But going from 120 to 100 is far different from 100 to 90, let alone 80 to 75.
Taking off five strokes as a single-digit handicap is vastly more difficult than a weekend warrior shaving off 20.
That’s essentially how this year’s COTY race is shaping up.
Here’s the current Top 5 on FanDuel:
JB Bickerstaff, -135
Jordan Ott, +400
Joe Mazzulla, +600
Mitch Johnson, +1000
Charles Lee, +1500
Coach Ott is in his first season as an NBA head coach and was tasked with managing the leftover scraps of Phoenix’s Big 3 era of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.
The Suns held a 30.5 Opening Night win total and are on pace for a 48-34 record.
That 18-win jump will likely be the largest delta of all 30 teams.
There’s no denying they’ve smashed expectations; FanDuel had Phoenix left for dead.
It’s an incredible story that they are within striking distance of a Top 6 seed.
But back to the golf analogy above, did you know the Pistons currently have the same number of losses as the defending champion Thunder?
Detroit is a full 5.5 games ahead of the 2-seed in the East and is a legitimate threat to finish with the NBA’s best record in 2025-26.
Their win total was 46.5 ahead of their opener, projected to be the 11th-best team in the league.
If they get to 60+ wins, I think this is a slam-dunk bet.
Coincidentally, Kenny Atkinson won this award last year, taking Cleveland from a 48 to a 64-win team.
Who did Atkinson replace as head coach?
JB Bickerstaff.
As with all awards, there’s a human component to how the writers decide who they cast their ballot for.
There’s something bittersweet about Bickerstaff earning the Red Auerbach Trophy for leading his new team to the same success his replacement was rewarded for.
Given how Detroit has consistently played all year, in addition to their deadline transactions, I’m confident they’ll remain atop the East.
I’m surprised the price isn’t shorter.
The Pick: JB Bickerstaff, COTY (-135)
