Setting The Pick – NBA ‘What If’ Season

As regular-season basketball resumed last night, the NBA returned with more questions than answers heading into the stretch run.

All the latest headlines revolved around anti-tanking discussions with Commissioner Adam Silver officially taking action to address this growing problem.

While it is great that steps are being taken for the future, those changes cannot influence the current season.

Judging by all the questionable absences, injuries and rotation decisions, this is likely the official tipping point.

Eight of the lottery-bound teams have been removed from the win total market on FanDuel – the bottom five in the West and the bottom three in the East.

They don’t have the tools to project their tanking, nor do the fans.

Beyond these blatant tankers at the bottom, there are also several lingering ‘what ifs’ that hang over the NBA post All-Star Weekend.

In the past 24 hours, a wave of injury news came out that could be classified as unexpected or suspicious.

There were also some bigger picture question marks that have been suspended in mystery.

I’ll assess three of the biggest ‘what ifs’ moving forward and share how strongly I believe in them.

Please also note this disclaimer – by no means do I qualify as an investigative journalist and cite these bets purely based on my own judgment.

Will Kawhi Leonard be suspended?

My confidence rating – 2/10

I’ll start this section by giving out a huge salute to Pablo Torre and the work he’s doing via the Pablo Torre Finds Out podcast.

Earlier this month, Torre released Part VIII of his Kawhi-Gate investigation, which has sparked much review and debate into the LA Clippers’ alleged salary cap circumvention.

I do not claim to be an expert on this subject but having spent hours listening and researching this story – one major takeaway jumps out to me.

Steve Ballmer and the Clippers organization will absorb the lion’s share of the punishment, if any.

I’m willing to bet Leonard gets off Scot-free.

The bulk of Torre’s continuous investigation revolves around how Ballmer funnelled money through the Aspiration organization – one that allegedly paid Leonard under the table.

Silver last spoke at All-Star Weekend on the subject stating that:

“I haven’t come to any decisions whatsoever yet on the Clippers matter. As you know, the league office is not directly running the investigation. It’s being overseen by a law firm, Wachtel, in New York.”

No timeline on the matter has been offered and there’s a chance this becomes an offseason storyline.

In addition to this investigation remaining in limbo, a lot has changed since LA’s sweeping fire sale at the deadline.

In full disclosure, I wrote an article right after February 5^th promoting the under on their 38.5 win total.

While that’s technically live, the Clippers are absolutely blowing up that bet.

Since shipping off James Harden and Ivica Zubac, the Clippers have gone 4-1 with three massive wins against Minnesota, Houston and Denver – all championship contenders.

They were 4.5-point underdogs or longer in all three games yet won each outright.

Leonard has shouldered the offensive load as expected but it’s their defence that has really delivered.

Derrick Jones Jr. returned six games ago and has given them an added wing-stopper to complement Leonard.

Kris Dunn and Brook Lopez have taken on larger roles and held their own.

But the ace up their sleeve seems to be Canadian Bennedict Mathurin, who was cast-off by Indiana after drafting him sixth overall in 2022.

His 38-point explosion off the bench against Denver last night was the difference in their victory.

If this offensive punch is here to stay, I’m ready to eat my words.

With Leonard playing at an MVP-level, if he gets to the summer suspension-free, I think they have a puncher’s chance to sneak into the postseason.

As it stands, the four play-in teams are all but guaranteed.

These are the current odds available on FanDuel to make the play-in.

Portland Trail Blazers, -20000

Los Angeles Clippers, -4000

Golden State Warriors, -4000

Phoenix Suns, -150

Hypothetically, let’s assume all these teams remain in their current standings.

The Clippers would need to defeat Portland in a sudden-death match and then play the winner of Golden State versus Phoenix to win the eighth seed.

While Portland definitely has the talent advantage, I’d put my faith in a championship-tested MVP who’s arguably playing the best basketball of his career.

Given the recent form of Golden State, who’ve been 4-8 since the loss of Jimmy Butler, I’d be worried about their ability to compete, especially with Stephen Curry battling a right knee injury that has a chance to linger until the summer.

Sometimes you have to pivot based on what your eyes are showing you.

I’d parlay the following three results on FanDuel to reverse my opinion on LA.

The Pick: Clippers to make, Blazers to miss, and Warriors to miss playoffs (+235)

Is Jayson Tatum’s return inevitable?

My confidence rating – 8/10

Do I enjoy leaning on Bill Simmons as the driver for Tatum speculation? No.

But as the biggest Boston Celtics homer, it’s hard to not take his opinion on the subject given his notoriety and connection to the team.

Here are some of his hypotheses for why he thinks it’s coming:

• Boston’s March 1st game has been flexed from 6:00 pm to an 8:00 pm prime-time slot
• The ticket prices for their March 6th game are supposedly “way out of whack”

These two points are on top of his claim that he’s “heard” it’s a matter of when, not if, Tatum will return this season.

Adding to his opinion, Tatum being assigned to G-League practice this month has fuelled a lot of the rumours.

Then the momentum kept rolling as NBC aired the following trailer to their docuseries – The Quiet Work - which is set to debut on March 1^st.

Beyond speculation, you can also include their front office moves as an indicator of where they think their roster stands.

Trading one expiring deal for another, the Celtics decided to forego guard depth to beef up their frontcourt.

If Tatum doesn’t return this season, Boston would only have three capable ballhandlers in their postseason run, a high-risk maneuver.

Given how wide-open the East is, I think now’s the time to get in on Boston if you believe all this to be true.

Here are the current odds on FanDuel to win the East:

Cleveland Cavaliers, +340

Boston Celtics, +350

Detroit Pistons, +360

New York Knicks, +420

That grouping tells you there is no favourite.

The Cavs definitely upgraded with Harden, but I do not buy his pre-existing postseason track record. I have no desire to support them as championship contenders.

The Pistons are a legitimate threat to finish with the best record this season and Cade Cunningham could be the biggest longshot to win MVP of all time.

But given what we’ve seen from previous champions, it’s almost impossible for young teams to make it to the Finals without taking some lumps in the postseason.

This Detroit roster hasn’t even won a single playoff round yet.

New York surprisingly has the longest odds of the four after narrowly losing to Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

To their credit, they were up 3-1 on Boston prior to Tatum tearing his Achilles in their semifinals matchup last season.

The Knicks would personally be my favourite bet here at +420.

If you’re confident Tatum comes back and is even 75 percent of his 2024-25 form, I’d encourage you to take the following bet.

The Pick: Boston Celtics to advance to Eastern Conference Finals (+150)

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander miss more than the next five games?

My confidence rating – 7/10

There’s no denying that SGA’s abdominal strain is a legitimate cause for concern.

When it was first reported, no official timeline was given.

In the most recent update yesterday from Thunder PR, the language was that he’d miss “at least one more week”.

The vagueness in their report is certainly a concern.

Sure, he might return right away, but given how they’ve left the door open, you can deduce what they’re trending towards.

His injury will certainly have an impact on NBA Awards, regular season best record bets etc., but where I see most opportunity is in their game-to-game spreads.

At a +11.7 net rating, the Thunder have obviously been beating up on teams with their defence.

The issue for them offensively?

SGA isn’t the only player sidelined; Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell will also be out for at least the next week.

Those three are their most capable playmakers.

So, it’s no surprise that OKC’s last three losses all came when those three were sidelined.

Williams came back for their games against the Lakers and Suns which they subsequently won.

But after re-injuring his hamstring against Phoenix, the Thunder got blown out by 17 points against Milwaukee as -13.5 favourites.

To score 93 points against the Bucks – the 22^nd-ranked defence – is a concerning sign.

I’m not encouraging you to bet Brooklyn +17.5 tonight.

I would tell you to wait for the lines over their next four games and capitalize if OKC is being overvalued.

They face a blazing hot Cavs team followed by a back-to-back on the road against Toronto and Detroit before getting Denver in a battle of championship favourites.

The Pick: Bet OKC’s opponent against the spread in four of the next five games