Setting The Pick – Raptors vs. Cavaliers first-round preview

It’s been four long years since the Toronto Raptors found themselves in the postseason.

Take a moment of reflection; stop and smell the roses.

As is often the case with most things in life, the lens you see the world through will guide your perspective.

It’s easy to view this series as a guaranteed loss, given Toronto’s 5-22 record versus the NBA’s Top-10 teams.

It’s easy to assess the existing roster as a tier below true championship contention.

Or you could recall that almost all talking heads pegged the Raptors for somewhere between 30 and 39 wins.

Don’t get caught chasing moving goal posts.

This has been a grade-A season for the franchise.

Up against a Cleveland team that was expected to finish atop the Eastern Conference with a 56.5-win total coming into 2025-26, it’s completely rational that they are priced at -480 to win the series on FanDuel (an implied probability of 82.8 percent).

Don’t tell that to Scottie Barnes, though.

Clearly they don’t need any bulletin board material to get motivated for their upcoming battle.

If they were looking for some though, pinning ESPN’s article on all 12 experts betting on Cleveland to advance could ignite some flames.

I’m not here to give any homer takes justifying why Toronto is a good darkhorse to the series.

Cleveland has many strengths that Toronto is unlikely to overcome.

They have their fair share of weaknesses but sadly the Raptors don’t have a roster catered to exploit them.

My one Toronto-based take which I stand firmly behind – this is a freeroll postseason appearance for the Raps.

There’s obviously pressure to not get swept or embarrassed but given Cleveland’s big swing for James Harden and their disappointing postseason results over the past two years, the heavy expectations fall on their shoulders.

I’ll go through one key question for both sides and provide some best bets for the series and Game 1.

Forcing the Fast Break

It’s universally understood that the game slows down in the playoffs versus the regular season, but if the Raptors have any chance in this series, they need to replicate elements of their league-leading transition offence that averaged 18.9 points a night.

During last year’s postseason, the average team scored 12.0 points a game in transition.

Over 82 regular-season games this year, the league averaged 15.2.

While there is a slight 3.2-point drop-off, it’s not as if fast-break offence magically disappears in the playoffs.

Toronto’s advantage in this series will be their defence (5^th-ranked defensive rating versus 15^th); that needs to be compounded into defence-to-offence execution.

As effective as Cleveland has been at limiting points in the paint, they were below-average preventing transition opportunities.

According to Cleaning The Glass, they were 22^nd in transition frequency allowed - 26^th off live rebounds and 21^st off turnovers.

The Raptors are a young athletic team and have the elements to make this a core strategy.

Few players hunt opportunities down the court better than Barnes.

The Raptors have several finishers in RJ Barrett, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Sandro Mamukelashvili who excel at getting behind their defenders.

While Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are offensive maestros, neither profile as plus-defenders.

Akin to how Indiana ran New York out of the gym during last year’s Conference Finals, Toronto’s counter to Cleveland’s strengths is to expose their two stars defensively.

Win the 4-on-3s

As mentioned above, Cleveland has both the No. 1 and No. 2 offensive weapons in this series.

Both are equally dangerous in their own ways.

Leave either in one-on-one action, chances are a high-quality shot is getting up.

Toronto has shown a willingness throughout the season to blitz and double opposing superstars making the rest of the team beat them.

That works against some less capable offences; Cleveland very likely will murder them for applying that type of look.

The key for their offensive scheme will come down to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen being able to work off those 4-on-3s getting themselves clean looks at the rim.

Cleveland doesn’t have the strength advantage in this series, but they do have the speed advantage.

If Harden and Mitchell break through Toronto’s perimeter coverages with ease, I don’t think Toronto has the personnel to limit the damage at the rim and subsequently the open looks from beyond the arc.

I’m expecting a lot of hockey assists from their two primaries – Mitchell and Harden.

Series-long Prediction – Cleveland 4-2

The Raptors are making their first playoff appearance ever with a Barnes-led roster.

Mitchell is in the midst of his ninth straight.

Spida is no slouch in the playoffs - his 28.3 ppg average is 3.2 points higher than his nine-year regular season average.

Harden and Mitchell both have yet to put a championship on their resumes, but with The Beard making his 16^th appearance, they clearly have the experience advantage.

Toronto winning this series would go against everything advanced analytics supports.

I for one though don’t buy into the notion that Toronto will get the doors blown off.

Since the All-Star Break, the Raptors have quietly had the better net rating (10^th) compared to Cleveland’s (12^th).

They’ve shot 37.7 percent from deep which was sixth-best in the NBA; a drastic flip from their 25^th-ranked efficiency pre–All-Star Break.

They hold some advantages which Cleveland is unlikely to have counters for.

The major x-factor to me comes down to Immanuel Quickley’s health.

His three-point shooting is so critical in this specific series.

If his threat from deep isn’t present, it might be a bridge too far for Toronto to pull off the stunner.

Ja’Kobe Walter 2+ threes (+120)

Ahead of their 1:00pm tip-off on Saturday, the first bet I’d push hard for is the red-hot Walter.

My biggest reason to get your money in now – I’m worried about IQ’s status as we get closer to game time.

Even if he plays, he’s looked laboured and logged limited minutes.

In the event Quickley sits, I am heavily advocating for Walter to either start or see 30 minutes or more.

Since IQ first went down on March 20^th, Walter has led Toronto with 2.8 three-pointers made on a scorching hot 52.2 clip over 13 games.

Flipping to Cleveland’s defensive tendencies, their scheme is predicated on taking away the rim.

While they only ranked 18^th in defensive rating overall, they were 4^th-best in points in the paint allowed (44.3).

The Cavs were generous to opposing shooters giving up the seventh-most attempts.

Jarrett Allen o14.5 points (-106)

I am shocked at how low the opening number is for Cleveland’s big man.

Three years ago, Allen was made into a meme for claiming “the lights were brighter than expected” following an early first-round exit.

This year, his role and support should be different.

Since the All-Star Break, Cleveland was nearly at full strength; Allen was the one who missed the most games.

He played 13 total since February 18^th (11 alongside Mobley), and in those contests he averaged 16.3 points per game on limited minutes.

I spotlighted the incoming 4-on-3 opportunities to come this series; many of those situations end with Allen dunking at the rim.

If the Raptors play more straight-up defence, Harden-Allen pick-and-rolls will be aplenty, and Harden is the very best at getting his big men easy looks.

My other red flag for this bet unfortunately relates to Jakob Poeltl who’s been pressing defensively.

Running the game log on opposing centres, you’ll find one too many above-average games from traditional bigs like Allen.

Karl-Anthony Towns – 22 points

Neemias Queta – 18 points

Jalen Duren – 31 and 20 points

For three seasons straight, Allen has averaged most points in his splits versus Toronto compared to his season averages.

I think you’re getting him at a buy-low considering he averaged just 26.5 minutes over 13 games post-ASW as he was nursing a right knee injury.