Two days down, three to go as we celebrate five straight days of playoff football across the TSN network.
Fortunately, we crushed the opening act with a pair of FanDuel Best Bet winners for the College Football Playoff.
Now the pressure is on to extend that streak beginning with a Saturday NFL Wild Card Weekend double-header.
First up, the Los Angeles Rams visit the Carolina Panthers in the most lopsided match-up of the NFL playoffs.
The Panthers barely made the playoffs via the NFC South title despite finishing with a losing record.
Now LA is laying 10.5 points at Carolina as the biggest road favourite in NFL playoff history.
That’s despite the Panthers beating the Rams 31-28 back in Week 13.
The massive spread sets up an interesting situation.
I’m not particularly interested in laying the 10.5 with any road team in the playoffs, especially one that must travel across the country to play in unfavourable conditions with a slight rest disadvantage.
However, the Rams remain a popular pick to win the Super Bowl as FanDuel’s third-biggest remaining liability behind the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles.
In fact, the only reason LA isn’t favoured is because they lost to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime in Week 16 and fell from the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed to the fifth seed.
Now the Rams could face Seattle in a rematch next week.
While Carolina beat Los Angeles in the regular season, I’m not jumping on the Panthers to pull off another upset as a +480 moneyline underdog in their Wild Card game.
All the numbers point to Carolina being one of the worst playoff teams in a very long time.
However, I do think it’s worth highlighting that some of the worst playoff teams in NFL history managed to win a postseason game.
In fact, the previous three playoff teams with a worse point differential than this year’s Panthers all won a postseason game.
The Rams allowed at least 27 points in four of their final six games and went 5-4 straight up on the road.
Matthew Stafford has the potential to carry over his elite play during the regular season with a favourable matchup against Carolina, but avoiding the turnovers that cost LA in the first matchup will be key to covering the 10.5.
The Rams also get a favourable matchup on the ground against a defence that struggled against the run over the final half of the regular season.
If LA jumps out to an early lead, I’d expect them to lean heavily on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to dominate time of possession and close this one out.
Meanwhile, the Rams defence also struggled against the run down the stretch, which could leave them a little more vulnerable than expected in a neutral game script.
For a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in Blake Corum over 41.5 rushing yards.
Corum has gone over this mark in five of six to close out the regular season, with the lone exception being a Week 17 loss to the Atlanta Falcons that he left with an injury.
Corum bounced back with 13 carries for 59 yards in a Week 18 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
The second-year running back has ranked among the best in the NFL in terms of efficiency, and while Williams is still the number one back, I like this number for Corum.
When these teams met in the regular season, Corum exploded for 81 yards and a touchdown on seven carries.
The Carolina defence has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
They’ve also faced the eighth-most running back rush attempts this season.
Corum’s efficiency combined with a favourable matchup and a relatively low number makes this an interesting look that I’m willing to chase.
Give me Corum over 41.5 rushing yards as a best bet.
As for Saturday night’s main event, I can’t wait to see how this NFC North showdown plays out.
The Green Bay Packers were a popular pick to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel earlier this season.
Since then, they’ve lost Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft, and the wheels fell off down the stretch with four straight losses to close out the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears experienced one of the biggest turnarounds in the NFL under first-time head coach Ben Johnson this season, winning the NFC North.
However, Chicago relied heavily on turnovers this season, going 2-6 straight up in game when they finished with one or fewer takeaways.
The previous nine teams that led the NFL in takeaways but still gave up 23 or more points per game all missed the playoffs.
The fact the Bears struggled with consistency on both sides of the football has many doubting their ability to make a deep postseason run.
Chicago opened as the slight favourite in tonight’s game.
However, the spread has flipped to Green Bay -1.5.
The Packers should be able to move the football both on the ground and through the air, but I have my doubts about their ability to get many stops on defence.
Johnson will want to establish his run game early on and keep the football out of Jordan Love’s hands.
He’ll also want to keep the ball out of the hands of Caleb Williams as much as possible, limiting any potential for costly turnovers and then capitalizing if the Green Bay defence cheats to stop the run.
The Bears were able to bully the Packers on the ground in their most recent meeting.
I’d bet on both teams looking to establish the run early on and limit the number of possessions the other team gets to limit the opportunities for their defence to be exposed.
As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I like a couple of rushing props.
First up, I’ll lock in Emanuel Wilson over 15.5 rushing yards.
Earlier this week, Green Bay’s veteran running back Josh Jacobs told reporters that this is the best that his knee has felt in a long time.
However, Jacobs has dealt with swelling and discomfort all season, and he struggled with efficiency the last two times that we saw him on the field.
In the Week 16 loss to the Bears, Jacobs averaged 3.0 yards per carry with 36 rushing yards on 12 attempts.
Then in Week 17, Jacobs had four carries for three yards before an early exit.
The Packers gave Jacobs Week 18 off to rest and recover, but I’m a bit concerned about his ability to step back into the lineup and handle his usual workload, which is being implied with Wilson’s rushing number set at 15.5.
Wilson averaged 5.9 yards per carry with 82 rushing yards on 14 attempts against Chicago in Week 16.
He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in two meetings against the Bears this season, which means he might only need three or four rushing attempts to go over this mark.
Jacobs has registered at least 81 rushing yards and 120 scrimmage yards in each of his last two playoff games.
If Jacobs can handle a full workload, he should be able to put up solid numbers against this Chicago defence.
In that scenario, I still think Wilson gets four or five rushing attempts in the game.
If Jacobs gets banged up at any point or struggles, Wilson over 15.5 rushing yards will look even better.
I’ll go with Wilson over 15.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.
For the Bears, I’ll lock in D’Andre Swift over 57.5 rushing yards.
Swift went over this mark in eight of 12 games since Chicago’s bye week, including 63 and 58 yards in two games against the Packers.
While rookie running back Kyle Monangai has flashed his immense potential, I expect Johnson to lean on his veteran back in a playoff game against a division rival.
Swift has handled a 60 per cent rush share over the past four weeks, and that number could climb as the Bears look to establish the run against a Green Bay defence that has struggled at the point of attack.
Swift ranked second in the entire NFL in rushing yards before contact with 899 during the regular season.
The Packers allowed the 11th-most rushing yards before contact with 643.
I’ll play Swift over 57.5 rushing yards and Wilson over 15.5 rushing yards as my FanDuel Best Bets for tonight’s NFC North showdown.
Hopefully, we can carry over the momentum and cash a couple of winners to kick off the NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Enjoy the football, everyone!
