Vlad, DR suddenly the favourites to win WBC as Italy, Mexico and Canada step into spotlight  

Ciao bello.

A historic 8-6 win by Team Italy Tuesday night over Team USA at the World Baseball Classic has flipped the event on its head.

After entering the event as the favourites, Team USA now has the second shortest odds at +210 to win the tournament, despite not controlling their path to the knockout stage.

Now, on the final day of Pool play, Team USA will be watching closely as Italy and Mexico play with the outcome determining which two of the three teams will advance.

But before that can happen, Canada has a chance to advance out of pool play for the first time at the WBC as they clash with Cuba.

Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic, sitting at 3-0 ahead of their final Pool D game this evening, now have the best odds to win the World Baseball Classic at +180.

Canada controls its path

Win and you advance. Lose and you go home.

That’s how it’s going to be for Canada the rest of the way at this event as they take on Cuba as -156 favourites this afternoon.

Cal Quantrill gets the ball for Canada. This will be his second time pitching for the team after he logged 0.2 innings at the 2023 WBC, allowing three runs while walking four.

In seven years as a starter in Major League Baseball, the 31-year-old has a 4.35 ERA and in 2022 he started two postseason games for the Cleveland Guardians.

Since the first WBC in 2006, Canada is the only country to play in all five previous events without advancing out of pool play. A win Wednesday afternoon would change that.

All eyes on Italy and Mexico in final game of Pool B

Except the unexpected.

We hear those words all the time, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone that liked Italy to pull off the upset Tuesday night against Team USA.

Now, with Italy 3-0, Mexico 2-1, and Team USA 3-1, the advancing teams from this group might come down to run differential.

The simple path is Italy remaining undefeated and winning the pool with Team USA finishing as the second seed.

But, while that path may be simple, it is unexpected with the Italians +230 underdogs to beat Mexico.

A win for Mexico doesn’t automatically eliminate any team, but it then becomes about how many runs they score in the win.

Here is the tiebreaker as written on MLB.com for a three-team tie.

“The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.”

It’s pretty simple. If Mexico scores five or more runs in a win, that will advance them and Team USA. If Mexico wins while scoring fewer than five runs that would push both them and Italy through.

Without getting into the math, some fine folks on X (the everything app) have created visual aids for those who need them.

How awesome would it be if the two teams played to a 1-0 game to send the Americans (who already thought they advanced) packing before the group stage?

If that happens, it will be the first time in event history Team USA fails to make it out of pool play.

Vladdy, DR the favourites ahead of closing pool game

Now the favourites to win the World Baseball Classic, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Dominican Republic still have some work to do.

Tonight they’ll close out pool play for the event as a -230 favourite to beat Venezuela.

A win for the DR would secure their top spot in Group D.

With the DR now favourites we’ve seen a shift in MVP odds as well.

Four players on the team, including Guerrero Jr. sit priced between 14-1 and 16-1 to win MVP of the event.

They all still trail Shohei Ohtani (+400) and Aaron Judge (+1000).

The results from all three games today will shape how everything shakes out. We could see a scenario with Team USA advancing as the second seed in Pool A, which would unexpectedly setup a rematch of the 2023 final in the semis with Japan and USA on a crash course.

That scenario would leave the DR as clear favourites with a much smoother path.

We could also see Venezuela shock the DR and flip the seeds in Pool D at the last minute.

It will be an intense day of baseball for the six teams playing and a few others at home watching.