College Football Playoff expansion is coming in 2024, but the current CFP era has mainly featured lower-ranked teams that have underdelivered and underdogs with more bark than bite. Only once during the eight years since we ditched the BCS have we seen both semifinal underdogs cover, and that only occurred because one point spread was 18.5.
In the CFP, favorites between four and 14 points are 7-2 ATS, which does not bode well for No. 4 Ohio State (+6 against No. 1 Georgia) and No. 3 TCU (+7.5 vs. No. 2 Michigan). However, professional money arrived late Friday morning on the Buckeyes, driving the line down from 6.5.
"I like Ohio State quite a bit. It's not often a really good team gets to play the disrespect card," professional bettor Ron Boyles told ESPN. "They should be able to throw the ball on Georgia."
I personally think Ohio State is getting by on brand name. Obviously the Buckeyes have talented offensive playmakers, but the proof is in the pudding. Their offensive and defensive lines struggled in their biggest games. That includes each of the past two meetings with Michigan and even the season opener against Notre Dame.
On the other hand, Georgia has manhandled opponents in its biggest games. While the Bulldogs' inconsistency is somewhat concerning, they dominated Tennessee, which was top-ranked at the time, and LSU in the SEC title game. I'm backing the Dawgs minus the points.
The Horned Frogs have their fair share of critics. One oddsmaker told me that they would be an underdog to about 12 teams on a neutral field. But they are unintimated and will enter this showdown against undefeated Michigan expecting to win. I lean to taking the points, but the CFP trends are hard to ignore and the Wolverines are certainly capable of a one-sided victory.
My favorite Fiesta Bowl play is under 56. Michigan prefers to wear down its opponent, leaning on the ground game and then pull away late. I think the Wolverines will control the time of possession and their defense will stifle TCU, although Max Duggan will make some plays.
Other plays
Allstate Sugar Bowl
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (-7, 56) vs. 9. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, Noon ET on ESPN, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Quarterback Bryce Young and star defensive lineman Will Anderson will play, even though they might be the top two NFL draft picks. That should set the tone for the Crimson Tide, who are obviously accustomed to the CFP. We've seen favorites fall on their face in the Sugar Bowl, but I have faith that Nick Saban will have his team mentally prepared. Plus, I believe the talent gap is just too wide for the Wildcats to keep this inside the number.
Pick: Alabama -7
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
17. LSU Tigers (-14.5) vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Monday, 1 p.m. ET on ABC, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
There is not a long history of double-digit favorites covering in bowl games. However, this is a unique situation and I am going to lay the lumber. Purdue coach Jeff Brohm and several assistants have left for Cincinnati, leaving behind a thin staff that even includes interim assistant Drew Brees. The Boilermakers will also play without key offensive starters, including quarterback Aidan O'Connell. Meanwhile, some Tigers will also miss this game but the team is still loaded with talent. Brian Kelly wants to cap off his inaugural season with a 10th win and will do what he can to ensure his team avoids a letdown.
Pick: LSU -14.5
