After two sensational semifinal clashes last week, we’re down to the final four in the Canadian Football League, with the division finals on tap this weekend on TSN. First up is the Eastern Final at Percival Molson Stadium as the Montreal Alouettes welcome the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
This pair of teams will match up in the postseason for the third time in four years. Round one went to the Alouettes in the 110th Grey Cup in 2023. In that one, now-Edmonton Elks’ pivot Cody Fajardo found Tyson Philpot in the end zone with 13 seconds remaining to give the Alouettes the advantage and the win.
Round two also went in Montreal’s favour, with the clash happening in last year’s Eastern Semifinal. In a game where 75 points were scored and the teams combined for nearly 900 yards of combined net offence, the Als snuffed out the Bombers’ crossover progression immediately.
Now, in the final year of the crossover, Winnipeg is trying to make history. There have been 13 previous instances of a team moving over for the postseason. All 13 times, it’s been a team from the West Division crossing over to the East Division, and all 13 times, the crossover team has failed to win the Grey Cup. In fact, no team has even made the big game from a crossover position, as the Blue Bombers only became the sixth team to even manage a postseason win.
Here’s everything you need to know for Saturday’s matchup.
Alouettes’ offence vs. Blue Bombers’ defence
Most Outstanding Player Finalists in quintessential quarterback Davis Alexander and remarkable receiver Tyson Philpot are must-see television and lead a fantastic Alouettes offence.
All the numbers are great; the unit is top two in points per game (34.7), net offence (420.9), and passing yards per game (320.6), while also boasting the most big plays (59), the fewest number of turnovers (23), the highest touchdown drive percentage (28.0 per cent), and the highest second down conversion rate (56.7).
Not too shabby.
How do they get it done? In terms of personnel, Jordan Younger and Winnipeg’s defence can expect three main groupings from Anthony Calvillo’s offence. Montreal is split pretty evenly, with the Als rolling out one back and five receivers 31.6 per cent of the time, two backs and four receivers 27.7 per cent of the time, and then two backs with three receivers and a sixth offensive lineman out there in 21.9 per cent of snaps.
Montreal loves to have two or more backs in the backfield (61.1 per cent, first in the CFL), and a lot of six offensive linemen, bringing an extra big man on 34.7 per cent of the time, also first in the league by far.
When those bigger bodies are on the field Montreal uses the run-pass option game and will run the ball considerably more. When the team brings the sixth lineman onto the field with the two backs and three receivers, they are virtually 50-50 on whether it will be a pass or run, with an RPO rate all the way up at 58.7 per cent.
Montreal runs the ball the most north of the border at 35.6 per cent of the time, with it mostly being in these looks, and will be going up against a Bombers team that allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (117.4). The Als love to pound the ball between the tackles with their physical, mauling offensive line and collection of strong downhill runners. They boast the highest inside zone run rate (51.0 per cent), while also running man concepts, which are typically between the tackles, at the second-highest rate (18.0 per cent).
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Against the Toronto Argonauts in the Eastern Semifinal, Winnipeg was forced to play with six defensive backs, plus a nickel linebacker on the field the majority of the time, due to the Argos’ lack of a run game. That probably won’t be the case against the Alouettes.
When the five wideouts are on the field for Montreal, Calvillo’s offence is almost guaranteed to pass at 90.7 per cent of the time, with very little RPO (11.5 per cent). And of course, this is where Younger’s unit will have to focus most of their attention with the deadly trio of Alexander, Philpot, and Tyler Snead.
They should be prepared for lots of screens. Among players with at least 100 routes run, Montreal has six players in the top 10 in percentage of total routes run as screens, with Philpot leading by far. The CFL’s triple-crown winner’s 14.5 per cent screen rate is by far the highest, as he ran almost 50 more than the next-closest receiver.
This is where the chess match will really come into play. The Blue Bombers are mainly in quarters coverage, with the corners typically in off-coverage. This is matched with Winnipeg pressing the least of any team in the CFL, which bodes well for those underneath throws.
But with the amount of wide receiver screens the Als throw at teams, two of Winnipeg’s highest press games came against Montreal in the regular season. But when the DBs creep up, the WRs go deep. Montreal pairs the screen game with deep shots that Alexander can deliver on, as Philpot has run go routes at nearly the same rate as his high screen rate, while Snead’s most common route is the go route (14.3 per cent).
Younger’s unit has been elite at defending the pass since he was promoted to defensive coordinator in 2024, leading in a plethora of categories since then, while once again allowing the fewest passing yards per game (272.1) in 2026.
The Alouettes put a lot of stress on opposing defensive backs, and Winnipeg’s guys will have to be on point.
Getting pressure up front would help, but that’s easier said than done. The Alouettes have allowed the fewest sacks (19) this year, and in games where the Alouettes weren’t resting their starters, they’ve only allowed multiple sacks three times. However, the Blue Bombers were responsible for one of those games, and both games against the Bombers were among the Alouettes’ highest-pressure-allowed games .
Younger doesn’t send a ton of extra players, only blitzing at the fifth-highest rate (29.1 per cent). Instead, it’s a lot of simulated pressure, with the team recording the second-highest rate (10.4 per cent). Watch for edge David Reese to drop into coverage and for linebacker Tony Jones to come at the quarterback instead. Jones has recorded the highest number of pass-rush snaps among linebackers.
Getting pressure with four would be a best-case scenario for Winnipeg’s defence and the most realistic shot at slowing down Montreal’s offence. While Alexander has been one of the better pivots in the CFL against pressure generally, three of his four interceptions this season have been when he was pressured. For a defensive unit that sits dead last in interceptions (nine) and is in the bottom half of the league in turnovers forced, this could be a way to win the turnover battle, which was a big reason why the team was able to take down Montreal back in Week 13.
It would be hard to see Younger cranking up the blitzes to achieve the pressure; however, Alexander is too smart and too talented against the blitz. The 28-year-old pivot has completed 72.5 per cent of his passes, completed eight big-time throws, and has made zero turnover-worthy plays when an extra man or two comes, all of which were among the top marks in the CFL.
Blue Bombers’ offence vs. Alouettes’ defence
Now to the battle on the either side of the ball, where for the second straight week there is uncertainty about who will be slinging the rock for the Blue Bombers.
It was Dru Brown at the reins in the team’s win last week, completing 18-of-30 passes for 206 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Starter Zach Collaros wasn’t ready to go after he suffered a rib injury in the team’s must-win regular season finale against the BC Lions. The 38-year-old was a non-participant throughout the team’s first two practice sessions last week, but logged a limited session on Day 3 and was listed as questionable for the contest, and was once again questionable for the team’s Day 1 session this week on Wednesday.
Assuming it’s the 29-year-old Brown once again, a key focus will be on how he deals with the madhouse that is Noel Thorpe’s defence. Pressure, blitzing, and chaos are the name of the game for Montreal’s unit, which will throw a ton at Brown and Winnipeg’s offensive line all game long.
The Alouettes blitz at a 44.7 per cent rate (the most by a country mile), send simulated pressure 13.3 per cent of the time (also first), load the box at the highest rate, and have defensive linemen stunt at the second-highest rate (24.7 per cent).
That does not bode well for the Bombers, who have allowed the most sacks (42) in the league while allowing one of the highest pressure percentages as well. The Als got pressure on 50 per cent of snaps in Montreal’s Week 18 win over Winnipeg, the highest allowed by the Bombers in a single game this year.
Over the past three seasons, Brown has completed a fine 66.9 per cent of his passes against the blitz while adding nine big-time throws, but he has also committed 18 turnover-worthy plays and nine interceptions. It’s also worth noting that both of the pivots’ picks last week were against the blitz.
Regardless of who’s at QB, it’s no secret that Tommy Condell’s offence will want to lean on the team’s Most Outstanding Player and Most Outstanding Canadian nominee Brady Oliveira and the ground game. The question is, will they be able to?
Thanks to the Alouettes’ explosive offence, teams have been forced to pass to keep up and abandon the run game, which then allows Thorpe’s defenders to pin their ears back even more.
Montreal has faced the most pass attempts in the league and the second-fewest rushing attempts. Against everyone else, Montreal allowed 17.4 rushing attempts, while Oliveira only averaged 12.5 in the pair of games against the Alouettes. Montreal also forced Winnipeg into two of their highest games in stuff rate (percentage of runs for loss or no gain).
For a team that runs the ball the second-most in the CFL (35.1 per cent), being able to let Oliveira rumble will be key for Condell’s offence, but it starts with Winnipeg’s defence being able to keep things close.
If they are forced to pass more than they would like, they are going to need some big plays, which is once again, easier said than done against the Als.
Montreal has allowed the fewest number of big plays (34) on the season and really held the explosives through the air in check. Two of Winnipeg’s lowest games in terms of passes past the first-down sticks and air yards before the catch were against Montreal.
Brown has been one of the most frequent deep-ball throwers over the past couple of seasons, and there could be some room to break some big passes off. Montreal’s most common coverage is Cover 3 at 31.5 per cent. Possible concepts to attack include flood, sail and smash, which feature corner routes.
The Bombers have one of the best corner route runners in the league. Nic Demski has run a league-high 18.1 per cent of corner routes in 2026, which are effective against Cover 3, and we’ve already seen that route deliver a 2026 playoff moment with Brown and Demski connecting on the game-winner last week.
In those concepts, pairing that with Dorian Singer go routes, who virtually only runs vertical stretching routes and has 18 explosive receptions (the most by a player with fewer than 250 snaps by far), while also adding another route underneath could be a way for Winnipeg to attack through the air and help improve on their third-fewest big plays throughout the regular season.
You can also expect the Bombers to run a ton of condensed sets, boasting the highest bunch and stack formations in the league. While Montreal only pressed at the seventh-highest rate in the league, their two lowest-press games came against Winnipeg, likely to try to avoid the natural rubs and picks that occur in those sets to free receivers up downfield.
Another tool to try and counteract the blitz monster that is Thorpe’s unit and get some yards through the air could be to use Oliveira in the pass game. The bruiser is one of the best receiving backs in the CFL, and screens and short passes could provide some much-needed relief while allowing one of the league leaders in missed tackles forced to make things happen.
When you have playmakers at all three levels like Mustafa Johnson, Tyrice Beverette, and Lorenzo Burns (who all deserve more time to be written about individually) and with arguably the best defensive coordinator in the CFL in Thorpe, it will be interesting to see what tools the Bombers pull out of their toolkit to try and cause an upset.