After previewing the Eastern Final, the weekend wraps up across the country in Alberta as the Edmonton Elks host the BC Lions in the Western Final.
You can also watch an alternate “Film Never Lies with Luke Willson” feed on TSN2.
For the first time in 2,547 days, the Elks will play in a playoff game, and for the first time in 4,003 days, Commonwealth Stadium will be the location of that playoff game.
The last time Edmonton welcomed someone into their building in the postseason, they punched their ticket to the Grey Cup with a 45-31 victory over the Calgary Stampeders in the 2015 Western Division Final.
They’ll now look to do the same in 2026, this time against the Lions.
BC earned their way into this one following a 33-26 win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the Western Semifinal last week. The Lions will now look to continue to vanquish their playoff demons, as they’ll try to get back to the big game for the first time since their Grey Cup win in 2011. Since then, the team is 0-5 in the Western Final and has a 5-11 record overall in the playoffs.
It’s a big-time matchup where both teams will be trying to get back to the big dance for the first time in more than a decade.
Here’s everything you need to know for Saturday’s matchup on TSN.
Elks’ offence vs. Lions’ defence
Let’s start with when Jordan Maksymic’s Edmonton offence goes up against Mike Benevides’ BC defence.
Benevides can expect three personnel groupings from the Elks. Most of the time, Edmonton has one running back and five receivers on the field (61.2 per cent), and they pass out of that grouping 84.0 per cent of the time. Their next most frequent grouping is two backs and four wideouts (18.8 per cent), while their third-most frequent grouping is two backs, three receivers, and a sixth offensive lineman (13.5 per cent).
As you can imagine, Edmonton is more than likely to run it when there are fewer than five wideouts on the field, calling plays along the ground 60.8 per cent of the time in those groupings.
Let’s begin with that ground game, which has been the focus of the Elks’ attack and will be a big key in this matchup. Edmonton averages the most rushing yards per game (127.6), while Maksymic calls the second-highest percentage of runs on first down (42.8) and the third-highest percentage of runs overall (34.6).
Edmonton’s running backs are involved in the offence more than any other teams are, as all three of Justin Rankin, ShunDerrick Powell, and Javon Leake sit one, two, and three in touch rate (receptions plus carries) in the CFL (min 50 snaps). And they are effective. Rankin and Powell are the top two in missed tackle forced percentage, while the former has the most runs of 20 or more yards, the most explosive receptions among running backs, and the most targets among backs by far.
The ground attack comes in the form of inside zone concepts at 48.0 per cent (in which 66.1 per cent of the runs are away from the strength of the formation) and pull lead concepts, with Edmonton getting their big boys out and moving the most frequently in the league.
The Elks get multiple backs on the field frequently as well, boasting the third-highest usage of two or more backs north of the border (36.2 per cent). That comes in the form of fullback Skyler Griffith alongside one of the running backs, or two running backs will be out there too, as with the ascension of Powell, Maksymic has looked to find ways to get him on the field more often.
This ground game wasn’t very effective against the Lions in the regular season, however, who boast an elite run defence. BC has allowed the fewest yards along the ground per game (71.3) and per rush (4.4), while Edmonton was held to 51 yards on 22 carries (2.3 yards per carry) in the pair of matchups. The Elks also posted some of their lowest missed tackles forced and explosive runs against BC, while two of their highest stuff rate games also came against the west coast team.
But BC is banged up in the front seven. Five defensive linemen have been ruled out, while Most Outstanding Rookie finalist in physical linebacker Parker McKenna has also been ruled out for the second straight game. Luckily for the Lions, the players who are healthy have been stout. Defensive linemen Mathieu Betts, Casey Sayles, Jonah Tavai, and linebacker Darnell Sankey all find themselves in the top 10 in lowest missed tackle percentage, while the linebacking duo of Sankey and McKenna are in the top 10 in both tackles for loss and run stops.
It’s worth noting, however, that the run defence did suffer against Saskatchewan last week without McKenna. The Riders logged 102 yards on the ground, one of the highest totals BC has allowed all year.
Maksymic and quarterback Cody Fajardo want to stay on schedule, ahead of the sticks, and use the play-action game in unison with a strong run game. But if the Lions can stop the run, potentially adding a lead while doing so, it would force Fajardo and the Elks to be more aggressive downfield in the passing game, which is where Edmonton does not want to be.
Among qualified quarterbacks, Fajardo has posted the lowest percentage of total passing yards before the catch (55.5) and the lowest percentage of pass attempts past the first-down marker (40.4).
This coincides with the short routes that the Elks receivers run. BC can expect a ton of slants and speed outs (Austin Mack and Kaion Julien-Grant are in the top three in the CFL of those routes run), with checkdowns to Rankin at the forefront too.
Of course there are deep routes mixed in, and while the wideouts are running short routes the majority of the time, the vertical pushing routes come from the slotbacks in Joshua Cephus and T.J. Luther (who has been ruled out and will be replaced by Joe Robustelli). Though they run the most vertical routes on the team, you’ll find no one on the team in the top 20 in the CFL in go routes, one in the top 20 in corner routes, and only both Cephus and Luther in the top 20 in post routes.
Now to the pass game, where Fajardo has generally had time in the pocket, with the Elks allowing the third-fewest sacks overall (34). His offensive line could get even better with starting right tackle Jordan Murray questionable for the game after logging a full week of practice and not playing since Week 14.
BC doesn’t send a ton of blitzes, only posting the seventh-highest rate (28.4 per cent). When Benevides does blitz, however, there is a lot of chaos. The Lions send six or more players in their blitzes at the highest rate in the CFL by far at 52.4 per cent and will typically run Cover 0 when that happens. It would make sense for BC to keep that rate low, as Fajardo is one of the better quarterbacks against the blitz and when there is pressure in his face overall, plus Edmonton’s offence is built around quick strikes. It’s also worth noting that Edmonton’s two lowest average time-to-pass games were against BC.
The Elks are a high time-of-possession and efficient team that likes to run the ball and dink and dunk, but that can only work if you can stop the explosive offence on the other side.
Lions’ offence vs. Elks’ defence
Now to the other side of the ball, where Buck Pierce’s high-octane, fast-paced BC offence will take on J.C. Sherritt’s turnover-and-pressure-producing defence.
The key will be whether the Elks can create turnovers. Edmonton led the league in turnovers forced throughout the regular season, pairing nicely with the Fajardo-led conservative offence to post a league-best plus-23 turnover ratio.
The team also led the CFL in points off turnovers (178), while BC allowed the second-most points off giveaways (134) and were top half of the league in turnovers made. Edmonton forced BC to turn the ball over six times in the pair of regular-season matchups (it’s worth noting Chase Brice started one of the games and threw four interceptions). This will be one of the main things to monitor.
The Elks and their defence, which features a fantastic intersection of talent and physicality, will be trying to stop a Lions offensive unit that can pick apart a defence in a multitude of ways.
The team has been effective through the air and along the ground, sitting third in passing yards per game (314.9), second in rushing yards per game (118.7), and second in net offensive yards per game (416.7). While it feels natural to begin with quarterback Nathan Rourke and the passing game, let’s zoom in on the ground game, where BC likes to hand it off early and often.
The Lions are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league while boasting the highest average gain per rush (5.9). How does Pierce’s offence get it done? Well, their most frequent run concept is inside zone at 49 per cent, the second-highest rate north of the border. They generally like to run between the tackles.
As far as personnel goes, you will find the Lions pretty much in two separate groupings, with either one back and five receivers on the field (58.7 per cent) or taking one of the receivers off for another back (20.8 per cent). Pierce loves to line up with two or more backs in the backfield, boasting the second-highest rate in the CFL (40.3 per cent) and running the ball out of those personnel groupings 56.1 per cent of the time.
Carrying the rock and filling the backfield up is a two-headed tandem of talented and physical backs that thrive between the tackles in Zander Horvath and James Butler. The former gets most of the work, as Horvath is near the top of the league in touch rate (33.7 per cent), missed tackles forced on runs (26), explosive runs (19), rushing yards after contact (621), and is one of the best pass blockers from the position.
It’s an Elks defence led by Nick Anderson in the middle that will have to be up to the challenge to stop the ground game first and foremost. In general, the unit has been incredible everywhere, boasting top two marks in turnovers, points allowed per game, net offence allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, opponent completion percentage, and opponent yards per play.
Anderson has been one of the best players against the run north of the border, as he and edge Noah Taylor are top 10 in lowest missed tackle percentage, while Anderson and other edge Malik Carney are in the top five in tackles for loss and tackles for no gain against the run. Canadian linebacker Joel Dublanko also deserves a shoutout for his run defence, though he leaves a lot to be desired while defending the pass, allowing one of the highest completion percentages in coverage (87.7).
Speaking of the edge duo in Carney and Taylor, they have both caused a ton of chaos, and while the defensive backs are great, which we will get to, the pressure this pair has put on opposing pivots has been immense.
The duo are No.2 and No.3 in sacks north of the border, while both appearing in the top 10 in pressure percentage and pass rush win percentage. They helped lead an Edmonton defence that was tops in pressure percentage (34.6), was third in sacks (40), and had the most tackles for loss (37).
Sherritt will throw a ton at Rourke and this offensive line that hasn’t been as solid as you would like if you are a Lions fan. The Elks’ defensive lineman stunt at the highest rate in the CFL (26.6 per cent), and Sherritt will load the box and pass blitz at the second-highest rate (38.4), and will do it with extra guys, blitzing with six or more at the second-highest rate (34.2) and seven or more at the highest rate by far (17.5 per cent).
The Lions will have to protect Rourke as the 28-year-old has struggled against pressure and the blitz. Among qualified quarterbacks, Rourke sits in the bottom three in completion percentage, big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, and interceptions thrown against the blitz, while his completion percentage and turnover-worthy plays are in the bottom half while facing pressure as well. BC has allowed the second most sacks (37). Also worth noting, two of the Lions’ lowest average time to throw games came against the Elks.
Pierce and Rourke also want to take shots downfield and will need the time to do it. Wideouts Keon Hatcher, Justin McInnis, and Jermaine Jackson are all in the top 15 in explosive pass plays, while Stanley Berryhill III is top three in deep target percentage, and joins Hatcher and McInnis in the top 20 in average depth of target. They typically like to put pressure on the boundary as well. BC has the highest rate of formations with the pass strength into the boundary, while also posting the second-highest percentage of bunch formations on the field. That could mean a lot on the weak-side corner J.J. Ross’ plate, but he not only shined this season, but against BC, specifically.
The tall and sticky corner loves to get in opposing receivers’ faces, posting the second-highest rate of snaps in press among all DBs. A key matchup to watch will be when he is lined up with BC’s No.1 wideout Hatcher. The pair have squared off 19 times, with Hatcher getting open on four routes (23.5 per cent) while getting targeted three times and only making one catch for 33 yards.
Another key matchup will be Kordell Jackson, who flies around and makes tackles left and right, against BC’s No.2 target in McInnis. They have matched up 18 times, with the tall slotback only managing to get open twice, while earning five targets and not making a single grab.
They are joined by interceptions leader Tyrell Ford, halfback Kobe Williams, and safety Chelen Garnes, who are all in the top 25 in the lowest completion percentage allowed, while Ford finds himself in the top five. It’s also worth mentioning that two of BC’s lowest average-depth-of-target games came against Edmonton, while two of the Elks’ lowest passer-rating games allowed were against the Lions.
Overall, the biggest storylines to watch in this one will be: Can the Elks stay on schedule with their run game against a great Lions run defence? Can the Elks force turnovers like they have all season to set up their conservative offence? And can the Lions offensive line protect Rourke with the shenanigans that the Elks’ front causes?
Stats provided are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and the CFL.