Just when you thought it was over, Bellus’ Betting Breakdown has returned.
After countless DMs and text messages from people begging me to bring this column back, I have decided to make my return.
Okay, fine. The “texts” were my mother asking me why I’m not writing as much anymore, and the part about DMs was a flat-out lie.
But that doesn’t matter. We’re back. And there’s no better time to be back.
The Players Championship is one of my favourite events on the golf calendar every season, and this year I plan on picking the winner.
So join me, as we embark on a journey that involves taking 10 golfers to win outright, sprinkling 2.3518 units around those 10 wagers.
Aside from trying to nail the winner, we’ll also dive into a number of props that I like this week and highlight my Best Bets in another column.
I’ve already wasted too much of your time, so let’s get shaking.
What is a Unit: A unit is a way to measure the standard bet that a sports bettor will make on any given wager. Unit size could vary depending on the sports bettor and their specific bankroll. Someone with a smaller bankroll might risk $10 as one unit, while someone with a larger bankroll might risk $100.
EX: One $10 unit would pay $50 on a +500 wager.
0.5 Units would pay $25 on a +500 wager.
0.1 units would pay $5 on a +500 wager.
OUTRIGHTS
Rory McIlroy - +950 (0.5 units to win 4.75)
Rory McIlroy is the favourite for a reason.
He has finished inside the top five in eight of his past 10 worldwide events, a stretch that includes three wins.
With all the talk about LIV Golf and the 2024 PGA Tour schedule in the news, I expect Rory to make a statement with his play this week, the same way he did last year in Canada en route to his 21st PGA Tour victory to leapfrog Greg Norman on the list of career winners.
Scottie Scheffler +1000 (0.5 to win 5)
Look at almost any metric and it will tell you Scottie Scheffler’s game is on par with his performance last season, when he won four times over a six-event stretch.
Scheffler’s game is incredibly well-rounded.
According to RickRunGood.com, this season Scheffler ranks:
Second in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Fifth in 3-Putt Avoidance
Sixth in Approaches from 100-125 yards
Seventh in Scrambling
I’m not going to name all of the categories he’s sitting inside the top 10, because I don’t have the time to list all 16.
His track record around TPC Sawgrass isn’t great, but that changes this week.
Collin Morikawa: +2400 (0.4 to win 9.6)
My biggest swing-and-miss last year at this event was Collin Morikawa winning the tournament, only to watch him miss the cut.
However, the weather did us no favours.
He enters this week on the heels of a missed cut, after losing strokes to the field in the ball-striking categories (Off the tee + approach).
Morikawa has had back-to-back events losing in those categories just once in his entire career.
He’s back on track this week.
Keegan Bradley +5000 (Risk 0.2 to win 10)
Already a winner on Tour this season, Keegan Bradley enters this week as an intriguing option.
The American has finished inside the Top 20 in three of his past four events.
His only missed cut since January came at The Genesis Invitational, a place where he hasn’t played well since 2015.
Since this event was moved to March in 2019, Bradley has finished inside the top 30 in every trip to TPC Sawgrass – something he did just once in his previous eight attempts when the tournament was held in April.
Finally, if you take all of the strokes gained data at the Players Championship since that move in 2019, Bradley ranks first in Strokes Gained total, averaging 1.90 per round.
Chris Kirk: +7500 (Risk 0.1818 to win 13.635)
Since 2021, Chris Kirk leads all players in this field with an average of 1.68 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round at a Pete Dye-designed course.
I wrote about Kirk this week in my longshots preview too if you want a more in-depth breakdown.
Hideki Matsuyama +8500 (Risk .125 to win 10.625)
Matsuyama hasn’t been great this season, but a player of his calibre is always one swing away from finding that forum that has led him to 17 worldwide wins.
I will blindly take him at 85-1 at any event.
Brian Harman 150-1 (0.075 to win 11.25), Taylor Montgomery 150-1 (0.085 to win 12.75), Doug Ghim 310-1 (0.035 to win 10.85)
I wrote about all three of these guys earlier this week, here’s a quick blurb on them.
Harman:
Has missed three of his past four cuts.
In 2021, he finished outside of the top 35 in his three events leading into the Players Championship before tying for third.
In 2019, he missed five of his previous seven cuts before tying for eighth in this event.
Montgomery:
According to RickRunGood.com Montgomery is one of the best putters on Tour this season.
The rookie finished inside the top 15 in eight of his first nine PGA Tour events.
Montgomery won’t have to pull driver as much at Sawgrass like he would have to do at bigger courses where he has struggled to keep up with the top of the Tour’s talent.
Ghim:
Throw out the stats. It’s all about the eye test.
He’s missed eight of his last 12 cuts and hasn’t gained more than one shot on the field in Strokes Gained: Total since that same tournament in July.
He’s made two starts here.
I fell in love with Ghim watching him in the penultimate group at this tournament on Sunday in 2021.
Alongside Justin Thomas, Ghim imploded en route to a 6-over 78 while Thomas masterfully worked his way around Sawgrass carding a 68 and winning the tournament.
In 2022 he quietly worked his way to tie for sixth here as well.
