The closest thing to a major without actually being a major is the Players Championship and with a purse of $25 million, it’s easy to understand why golfers get grinding this week. The test is TPC Sawgrass which is perhaps the fairest golf course on the PGA Tour schedule. It doesn’t necessarily favour one style of golfer and requires a complete examination of skills. That also makes it one of the more difficult events to handicap. However, I’ll give it a try with this week’s selections.
To Win
Rory McIlroy +900
The betting favourite is past champion, having won this tournament in 2019. He also has three other top-10 finishes and is coming in after a tie for second at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Of the six top Strokes Gained stats, he’s inside the top 10 in five of them including No. 1 in SG: Tee to Green. The outlier is his putting where he is 151st. He had a better week on the greens at Bay Hill and hopefully that continues this week.
Justin Thomas +1700
The 2021 champion here, Thomas has never missed a cut at this event. Part of that might be his skill around the greens – Sawgrass has lots of roll-off areas from where you need to recover – he’s ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. He has been inside the top 25 in his last six events but still looking for his first win of the year.
Top 10
Keegan Bradley +440
Quietly having a tremendous year with a win, a runner-up and four top 10s this season. Finished up last week at the Arnold Palmer with a Sunday 67 that came in difficult conditions. Finished tied for fifth here last year.
Corey Conners +550
Getting back to Florida is something Conners looks forward to as his record on the West Coast has never been that great. His tie for 21st last week included a second-round 66 which was the best in the field by a long run. The unusually loose iron shots seen at the start of the year seem to have been minimized and he looks to be back on form. Tied for seventh here two years ago.
Top 20
Sahith Theegala +280
Has only missed one cut in 12 events this year and has logged two top 10s in his last four starts. A very solid 32nd in Strokes Gained: Total shows that Theegala has a very strong all-around game, something that will be handy around one of the PGA Tour’s most demanding courses.
Seamus Power +380
Aside from last week’s 72nd at the Arnold Palmer, Power had run off a streak of eight finishes inside the top 25. That included a win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He’s 21st in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
