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Dump and Chase: Matthews, Samsonov should continue to own Flyers

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews - The Canadian Press

Welcome to Dump and Chase, powered by FanDuel. Join Aaron Korolnek and Carlo Colaiacovo every Tuesday and Thursday of the NHL season as they give their best bets for the evening's slate. Today, Carlo and AK like the Toronto Maple Leafs to stay hot against Philadelphia and are keeping a close eye on Alex Nylander against the Detroit Red Wings. 

Aaron Korolnek: A big one on TSN4 tonight, Carlo. The Philadelphia Flyers hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have dominated the Flyers in the last couple of years. Do they do it again tonight?

Carlo Colaiacovo: I absolutely think they do. And, you know, not very often  through the NHL schedule, do you find a team as good as the Leafs only as small favorites. So I think you're getting good value with them tonight in Philadelphia.

And this is more about the Maple Leafs. This is a team that's played really well as the late. I'm not going to let one loss against Carolina change my thought about them.

They're 12-3-1 in their last 16 games. And yes, people say there's no Mitch Marner, but this team has scored a lot of goals in Mitch Marner's absence. In fact, 13 goals in their last three games, including a six spot against Philly the other night.

Philly, they're decimated on defence. This is a team that lacks that scoring punch. I think the Maple Leafs find a way to get back on track tonight against a team they've had a lot of success with. Not just themselves, but with Illya Samsonov in net he has a career record against the Flyers of 11-1. 

Give me the Leafs.

Korolnek: And let's not forget Auston Matthews, my favorite play of the evening, -120 to score. He has racked them up against the Philadelphia Flyers in the last couple of seasons. He has seven goals in his last five games against Philly, including a hat trick earlier this year. He scored last week against Philly. -120 Matthews to score, a no-brainer play.

Let's talk about Alex Nylander, Williams' brother.

Man, has he been coming on of late. How are we playing him tonight with Columbus?

Colaiacovo: Yeah, he's found an amazing fit in Columbus, having a chance at a new start with some of their big players in Johnny Gaudreau and Boone Jenner.

And I like Alex Nylander to record three or more shots, because this guy's been a shot machine since getting to Columbus. He's recorded the over in his shot total in eight of his last eleven games. And in seven of those eight, he's recorded four or more. And they're playing against the Detroit Red Wings.

if people haven't followed the Detroit Red Wings, they are on a free fall. In the month of March, no team has allowed more shots on goal than the Detroit Red Wings per game at 35.1. So very favorable spot for Nylander, who plays first line and first line power play. I expect them to rack up that prop total for us again tonight.