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Morning Coffee: Bills considered more likely to miss than make playoffs at FanDuel


The Buffalo Bills are in trouble.

It wasn’t that long ago that they were considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Now, Bills Mafia is legitimately concerned about whether their team can recover from a brutal stretch and contend for a playoff spot. 

Buffalo was desperate for a win as a 7.5-point favourite against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Instead, a remarkable collection of mistakes led to a 24-22 loss in front of their home fans.

The Bills are currently tied for ninth in the AFC standings with seven regular-season games remaining, sitting on the outside of an absolutely loaded AFC playoff picture.

The schedule isn’t about to get any easier for Buffalo.

All of a sudden, the traders at FanDuel consider it more likely that the Bills miss the playoffs than make the playoffs this season.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2023.

Bills considered more likely to miss than make playoffs at FanDuel

The Bills were -245 to make the playoffs at FanDuel entering Week 1. That number represented a 71 per cent implied probability.

Fast forward 10 weeks later, Buffalo was sitting at 5-4 and down to -134 to make the playoffs at FanDuel entering Monday Night Football.

That number represented a 57.3 per cent implied probability.

Following last night’s loss to Denver, the Bills are down to +176 to make the playoffs at FanDuel. That number represents just a 36.2 per cent implied probability.

It’s the first time this season that Buffalo has been considered more likely than not to miss the postseason based on FanDuel’s odds.

From 1990 through last season, exactly 154 teams started the regular season with a 5-5 record. Only one of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.

Over that span, only 30.5 per cent of the teams that started 5-5 went on make the playoffs.

ESPN Analytics gives Buffalo a 33 per cent chance to make the postseason.

Next up, the Bills will host the New York Jets in Week 11.

Buffalo is currently a 6.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five straight games – the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL.

They’re 1-5 ATS against opponents with a losing record.

After the Jets, Buffalo gets the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, and the Miami Dolphins to close out the season.

The Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Chargers are all among the top-12 choices to win the Super Bowl.

The Bills have already lost to both of the teams they still have to play that aren’t among the top-12 choices to win it all in the Jets and Patriots.

Perhaps Josh Allen and company can still turn around their season and rally to make the playoffs.

As it stands, Buffalo is on the outside looking in on a loaded AFC playoff picture.

All of a sudden, the Bills are considered more likely to miss than make the playoffs at FanDuel.

Wizards give us one of worst beats of NBA season

The Toronto Raptors rallied to beat the Washington Wizards 111-107 last night.

The Raptors trailed by 16 points with 7:25 remaining in the fourth quarter.

They held Washington to just a single point the rest of the way in order to complete the comeback win.

While it was a tough beat for anybody who bet on the Wizards as an underdog, anybody who bet the over on their team total suffered an even worse beat.

Washington’s team total at FanDuel was 109.5. The Wizards needed four points over the final 7:25 for the over to hit.

Instead, they scored one point the rest of the way to finish with 107.

The under cashed in one of the worst beats that you will see in the NBA this season.

110th Grey Cup specials on the FanDuel app

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are currently a 7.5-point favourite for the 110th Grey Cup at FanDuel.

In addition to the spread, FanDuel has a wide range of specials available on their app right now for the big game.

FanDuel has markets for the leading passer, leading rusher, and the leading receiver for Sunday’s game.

They also have markets up for the Grey Cup MVP winner and the Most Valuable Canadian Player.

Do you see a play that you love for the 110th Grey Cup?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.