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Morning Coffee: A FanDuel best bet for Super Bowl LVIII
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The anticipation towards Super Bowl LVIII is building.
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers kicked off a week of festivities with the Super Bowl Opening Night in Las Vegas.
In case you missed it, Niners Nation was on fire.
The Niners faithful are seeking redemption in a rematch of Super Bowl 54 – a game the Chiefs won 30-21.
San Francisco is a 2.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
As somebody who jumped on Kansas City to win at +118 when the Super Bowl LVIII match-up was first set, I’ll certainly be cheering alongside all the Swifties once Sunday rolls around.
I’m also on Deebo Samuel to finish with 50 or more receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet that I posted in this column last week, expecting Brock Purdy to rely heavily on his versatile, veteran receiver on the biggest stage.
With five days to go before Super Bowl LVIII, it’s time to add another FanDuel Best Bet to my card for the biggest sports betting event of the year.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday February 6th, 2024.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Super Bowl LVIII
Patrick Mahomes is in a class of his own.
While the football analytics community has come a long way since I started watching the NFL in the early 2000’s, it still seems difficult to quantify how special Mahomes is.
It would have been easy to overlook the Chiefs at 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel when they entered the postseason as the AFC’s third seed.
Then Mahomes outdueled Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson on route to his fourth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons, and it became obvious that anybody who overlooked Kansas City underestimated a quarterback that has elevated his game once again during these playoffs.
Mahomes has completed 68 per cent of his pass attempts for 718 yards and four touchdowns in three wins this postseason, adding another 75 yards with his legs.
He hasn’t thrown an interception.
In fact, he hasn’t even thrown an interceptable pass.
Mahomes didn’t take a sack until the second half of the AFC Championship Game, and his ability to extend plays with his legs will be essential in the biggest game of the year.
The Chiefs have leaned heavily on Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco this postseason.
To beat the 49ers, I believe Mahomes will need to use his legs to buy time to throw, and to gain yards via rushing.
Mahomes has averaged 26.9 rushing yards over 17 career playoff games.
Mahomes’ rushing yards prop for Super Bowl LVIII is currently 25.5.
He would have gone over that mark in the AFC Championship Game with one 28-yard run.
After averaging 29.9 scramble yards per game this season, I believe Mahomes will not hesitate to use his legs to pick up big chunks against a tough San Francisco defence with a ring on the line.
Give me Mahomes 25+ rushing yards at -125 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Super Bowl LVIII.