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Morning Coffee: Stars continue to defy the odds in comeback win
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No champion ever reaches the finish line without a few bumps in the road.
For the Dallas Stars, every postseason defeat so far has set the foundation for an epic response.
The Stars have opened each of the first three rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a Game 1 loss.
After fighting back to beat the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche in the first two rounds, Dallas has responded to a Game 1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers with back-to-back victories to take a 2-1 series lead in the Western Conference Final.
Last night, the Stars rallied from an early 2-0 deficit for a 5-3 win in Edmonton as a +102 underdog on the road.
Dallas could be found as long as +520 to win at FanDuel trailing by two goals.
Jason Robertson recorded his first career playoff hat trick as the hero in Game 3.
The Stars, who had the best road record in the entire NHL during the regular season at 26-10-5, improved to 6-1 as the visiting team this postseason.
Dallas, which could be found at +164 to win the series at FanDuel following a Game 1 loss, is now -265 to win the Western Conference Final.
The Oilers are -128 to win Game 4 and +215 to advance.
As somebody who recommended a play on the Stars to win the series prior to Game 1 and then doubled down on Dallas at +164 following the opener, I’m happy with last night’s result.
Still, it would have been even sweeter for yours truly if Tyler Seguin managed to record one more shot on goal.
More on that in just a minute.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, May 28th, 2024.
Stars Continue To Defy The Odds In Comeback Win
The Stars have made a habit of embracing their setbacks to fuel their comebacks so far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
They’ve defied the odds every step of the way.
While the Western Conference Final has followed a similar pattern to the start of each of the first two rounds for Dallas, the Oilers aren’t in unfamiliar territory.
Edmonton trailed the Vancouver Canucks 1-0, 2-1, and then 3-2 before ultimately winning that series in seven.
FanDuel made the Western Conference Final a pick’em with both teams at -110 to advance when the series was tied 1-1.
If the Oilers respond with a win in Game 4, we should see a similar number at FanDuel with the series reduced to a best-of-three.
At the same time, Edmonton simply cannot afford to go down 3-1 in the series headed back to Dallas for Game 5.
That puts a ton of pressure on the shoulders of the Oilers’ core players to respond on Wednesday night following their most disappointing performance of the series so far.
Sure, Connor McDavid and company could still rally to win the series.
Still, FanDuel’s odds suggest they have just a 31.7 per cent implied probability to advance at +215 odds.
I’m very interested to see how Edmonton responds on Wednesday night.
Speaking of a response, the pressure is on yours truly following my first miss of the Western Conference Final in Monday morning’s column.
I had Tyler Seguin 3+ shots on goal as my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 3.
Unfortunately, he had two shots on goal on one shift, then didn’t register another shot for the remainder of the game.
This morning, I’m looking to turn the page with a winner and set up Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final with another FanDuel Best Bet.
The Florida Panthers need a win on home ice tonight to send the series back to New York tied 2-2.
Florida is -175 to win Game 4 and +136 to win the series.
The Rangers are +146 to win tonight and -164 to advance.
Ironically, the team that has generated more scoring chances has lost each of the first three games in the series.
The Panthers held a 108-43 edge in shot attempts in Game 3 but lost in overtime for the second consecutive game.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, New York’s minus-65 shot attempt differential was the largest negative shot attempt differential in a playoff win since shot attempts were first tracked in 2009-10.
While I don’t expect the gap to be as severe in Game 4, shot attempts will be a key factor again when it comes to my FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s contest.
Tonight, I’m going with Carter Verhaeghe 3+ shots on goal and Sam Reinhart 2+ shots on goal at -150 odds.
Verhaeghe led the way with seven shots on goal on 20 attempts in Game 3.
He’s averaged 4.7 shots on goal per game in the series and has recorded at least three shots in 10 of Florida’s 14 games.
The Panthers’ second line of Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk and Anton Lundell dominated in Game 3, and I expect a similar performance in a crucial game on home ice tonight.
Meanwhile, Reinhart finished with three shots on goal on 10 shot attempts in Game 3.
He’s recorded at least two shots on goal in each of Florida’s 14 playoff games.
Transparently, I will have plays on both Verhaeghe and Reinhart to register more than 3+ and 2+ shots on goal, respectively.
Verhaeghe 4+ shots on goal is +122.
Verhaeghe 3+ shots on goal parlayed with Reinhart 3+ shots on goal is +105.
Hopefully, we can get back on track with a winner.
Have a great day, everyone!