Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: PGA Championship Best Bets
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It’s a two-horse race in the outright market for the 2023 PGA Championship, and while Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are going to make it tough for all of us to cash those longshot outright tickets, that won’t stop us from isolating a few props to make some scratch.
As I sweat out a 65-1 future on Cameron Young from July, I have also added Patrick Cantlay (21) and Gary Woodland (160) to my card, along with a few fun darts in the outright market.
But today I’m here to talk about three golfers and props I have isolated and placed as my best bets.
There’s no better place to start than the No. 2 golfer on the planet before we dive into two players who have won on the PGA Tour this year, and who I think could have solid weeks.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER TOP 10 -105
As I highlighted in my column yesterday, there is a gap the size of Texas between Scheffler and the rest of the field when it comes to Tee to Green stats.
Since January, Scheffler is averaging 2.43 strokes gained tee to green per round. The next closest player on that list, with a minimum of 30 rounds, is Cantlay at 1.73.
That difference of 0.7 equals the gap between Cantlay in second and Corey Conners in 20th.
Scheffler has played in 10 events since January. His average finishing position is 6.6, with his worst finish being a tie for 12th at the Genesis Invitational in March.
It wouldn’t shock me to see the American win his second major championship this week, but for now I’ll settle on a Top 10 finish.
Alternate market to consider: Top 5 +160, Outright +750
TAYLOR MOORE TOP 40 +115
Taylor Moore has made 12 starts on the PGA Tour since January. He has finished inside the top 40 in 10 of those.
Of those 12 events, seven were the new designated events with elevated fields. Moore has held his own, missing just one cut, finishing inside the top 40 in six and cracking the top 30 three times.
He picked up a win at Valspar and finished inside the top 40 at both the Players Championship and the Masters.
Moore enters this week 26th in Strokes Gained: Total, a massive leap from last year when he ranked 102nd as a rookie on Tour.
Alternate market to consider: Top 30 +240
WYNDHAM CLARK TOP 40 -105
Wyndham Clark has been the gift that just keeps giving.
Heading into the Players Championship I noticed that Clark was among the game’s top players in approach play, he also eight top 40s in the nine events leading into that week and was + money to crack the top 40 at TPC Sawgrass.
He cashed for us that week and has stayed hot since.
Since the Players, Clark has picked up his first career victory, finished inside the top 10 four times, and has cracked the top 40 in all six events, meaning he enters this week with 14 top 40s in his last 15 events.
His approach play remains at an elite level, and I believe he has the driving acumen to keep up with all the big names at a course like Oak Hill, which will be very demanding off the tee.
Clark has played in five majors in his career, with his best finish being a T75 at the 2021 PGA Championship.
However, he’s gained strokes off the tee in all five of those, with approach play weighing him down in all five.
I expect a much better result for Clark this week at the PGA Championship.
Alternate Market to consider: Top 30 +160