Setting The Pick – Week 20 Betting Adjustments

Two weeks of games since the trade deadline and many trends are simply becoming reality.

Bettors are always looking to exploit opportunities with high variance or limited data to work with.

After watching 28-of-30 teams in the NBA make moves ahead of the deadline, there have been clear ripple effects in the standings and individual player props.

Here are some of the most compelling storylines since February 9^th.

LEAGUE WIDE NOTES

Bing Bong Time

The balance of power in NYC took a dramatic turn this past month with Kyrie Irving forcing his way out of town, Kevin Durant following suit and the Knicks reeling off a series of improbable wins.

The hype is real, and the betting audience supports that. The Knicks have been the most staked team on FanDuel to win the Eastern Conference over the past few days.

At the All-Star Break, their odds to win the East were 100:1. Present day, they’re down to 27:1.

Since the deadline, they’ve had the top net rating in the NBA (10.9) fueled by their second-ranked offence.

Of the six players who lead the team in minutes, all of them have improved their shooting efficiency since the deadline.

Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley deserve special recognition; Randle is scoring just under four more points per game on 51.2 per cent shooting while Sixth Man of the Year candidate Quickley is up to 17.8 ppg from 12.6 ppg.

As a group, they’ve experienced noticeable growth from behind the arc going from 34.4 to 38.5 per cent, good for seventh since the deadline.

The play: Bet on Knicks three-point shooting and point props for Randle and Quickley

Memphis Meltdown?

Ja Morant is expected to be away from the team for an undisclosed period of time, backup centre Brandon Clarke has been ruled out for the season and Memphis is at serious risk of losing the 2-seed after being a threat to Denver for the top spot out West.

While Morant’s punishment and fallout will garner much of the discussion, the Grizzlies as a team aren’t necessarily due to roll over.

Last season, Memphis’ franchise player missed 25 games due to injury, yet the team finished with a 19-6 record in those games.

They didn’t just sustain without him, they actually flourished finishing with a 76 per cent win rate versus 64.9 in the games with him active.

While that on/off split hasn’t carried over into 2022-23 (4-7 with Morant out this year), it’s a silver lining as the Grizzlies attempt to stay on course amidst all the turbulence.

Flying under the radar, the loss of Steven Adams has caused more damage than most realize.

Since the big man went down on January 23^rd, the Grizzlies have gone 7-11. They were 1.5 games back of Denver for first out West and now sit 7.5 back.

He was originally given a three-to-five week recovery window and was recently spotted in practice.

All season the Grizzlies have hung their hat on the defensive end with Jaren Jackson Jr. sitting atop the leaderboard for Defensive Player of the Year.

At the time Adams went down, they owned the NBA’s top defensive-rating. Since then, they’ve dropped down to fifth.

When he returns, Memphis should resume being league leaders at smothering opponents in the paint.

The Play: Under on opposing frontcourt player props upon Adams’ return

PLAYER PROPS

Damian Lillard’s Path To Scoring Title

It feels like I’m burying the lead if I don’t include a section on Lillard’s recent performances.

How often do you see a player’s line set at 37.5 points like it was the other night?

Dame Dolla has dropped a 50, 60, and 71-point performance during 2023 and is clearly on a mission to cement his legacy as one of the greatest shooters of all-time.

Using the lines from oddsmakers, if Lillard can sustain a 36.5 ppg average over his final 17 games, he’d finish the year averaging 33.4 ppg (tied with Luka Doncic’s current average).

It’s hard to choose a tipping point for when Lillard’s season hit a sixth gear, but it’s worth noting he hasn’t scored less than 20 points in over two months.

That was 26 games ago, splitting his season perfectly in half.

Prior to that date, he was averaging 27.1 points on 43.2 per cent shooting while making 7.4 trips to the line.

Since January 8^th, he’s upped his scoring to 37.8 points on 49.8 per cent shooting with 11.4 free-throw attempts.

With both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons out of the lineup, the scoring burden has fallen even heavier on Lillard’s shoulders.

It’s possible his numbers cool off when they return, but even then, it won’t be a dramatic falloff.

He averaged 34.5 ppg in January when both Simons and Nurkic were healthy.

Lillard’s just that guy.

The play: Lillard over points and assists

Kawhi Leonard Emerging

The addition of Russell Westbrook hasn’t gone exactly as planned for the LA Clippers. They’ve been 1-5 with him in the lineup and dropped from the fifth seed down to the eighth.

Team performance aside, Leonard seems to be thriving offensively with his new teammate.

He dropped 44 points in that epic double overtime game against the Kings (the second-highest scoring game in NBA history).

But even if we remove that game as an anomaly, Leonard has averaged 27.8 points on 51.4 per cent shooting and 55 per cent from deep.

So what’s changed?

Having Westbrook around has completely altered the pace LA plays at.

Prior to his arrival, the Clippers were 24^th in pace getting 98.24 possessions per game.

In these past six games, they’re second in the NBA at 102.89.

Regardless of team performance, Leonard is getting more looks and seen an uptick across the board.

He’s averaging 27.8 points versus 22.7 prior to the signing. The impact of Westbrook likely remains for the rest of the season.

The play: Leonard over points and three-pointers