MLB trade season is here!
From the early deals that got things rolling to the last-minute flurry of trade deadline day activity, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down this year's biggest trades.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade the most significant moves below.
Red Sox get infielder Mead in swap with Nats
Red Sox get:
IF Curtis Mead
Nationals get:
LHP Connelly Early
Red Sox grade: C
Perhaps this is giving short shrift to pre-Statcast evaluators, but this feels like a deal that would never have happened before the advent of tracking metrics. In a nutshell, Early's Savant page features a lot of blue and gray bars (bad) while Mead's have a lot of pink and red (good). Surely it's more complicated than that, but this is a good way to think through a deal that just doesn't work very well for Boston in a more traditional model of trade-related valuation. The machinery at Baseball Trade Values, for example, sees Boston as getting fleeced.
It's easy to understand the rationale. Early is a promising lefty, a consensus top-50-to-75 prospect entering the season, who has a 126 ERA+ over his first 21 big league starts. Even on the traditional stats line there are concerns, which we'll get into below, but that's still a valuable pitcher with loads of team control remaining. Mead was once a top-50-to-75 prospect himself, but that was several years and three teams ago. His 2026 season (137 OPS+, 2.0 bWAR) represents a breakout, but he was below replacement level entering the season.
The blue bars on Mead's Savant page are telling: He can't really field or run. But his long-tantalizing bat has come alive for the Nationals this season. With this deal, Boston is banking on that breakout being sustainable. Mead has evolved in measurable ways, which we can see in standard measures (vastly improved strikeout and walk rates, a spike in isolated power) and in more Statcasty ways. For instance, now that we have measures for bat speed and stance, we can see that Mead has adopted a more upright approach and now stands closer to the plate at the very back of the batter's box.
This last bit is crucial: With the changes, Mead's swing decisions have not only improved, but he's become even more of a flyball-heavy pull hitter with the home run results to show the tweaks have worked. A reminder: Fenway Park has long been a haven for righty pull hitters who get the ball in the air. Statcast's observations, which give us the ability to make smaller-sample judgments than those used in a typical valuation model, tell us Mead very much fits that mold.
The Red Sox are hoping Statcast is right because even if they have good rotation depth (which they do), Early is a lot to give up for someone with Mead's track record. And if Early was available, you have to wonder what other righty masher Boston might have been able to land.
Nationals grade: A-
Even if Mead's breakout proves to be real, the Nationals have plenty of offensive firepower to carry on -- and besides, his production was found money for Washington. Mead was a late-spring pickup for a low-level prospect after he was DFA'd by the White Sox. That turn of events seemed dire for Mead at the time, though we now know that the White Sox position group had moved beyond stop-gap solutions.
There is really no reason to not like the addition of Early to a rotation that needs help, now and going forward. He has been out for nearly a month with elbow inflammation that ironically got him removed from a start against the Nationals on June 30. He has resumed throwing and could return later in the season.
Either way, this is a big-picture addition for the Nats, and Early's promise, not to mention his years of team control, make this more than worth the value of Mead's bat-only profile. As mentioned, Early's Savant page doesn't inspire anyone. His command wavers, leading not just to too many walks but far too much hard contact. Early has coughed up 15 homers this season, a 3.8% rate of longballs allowed that would be one of baseball's 10 worst if he had enough innings to qualify.
But did we mention the career 126 OPS+, the top-50-75 prospect ranking and the years of team control? Yeah, it's worth a shot. -- Doolittle
