The Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the American League Championship Series, taking on either the Seattle Mariners or Detroit Tigers in a matchup that will start Sunday in Toronto.
The Jays won their first playoff series since 2016 on Wednesday night, beating the Yankees three games to one in the American League Division Series. It’s a huge moment for the franchise, as well as for the leadership team of president and CEO Mark Shapiro, general manager Ross Atkins, and manager John Schneider.
This series win will call off the dogs, which have seemingly always been nipping at the heels of the Jays’ decision makers.
Atkins and Shapiro have put together a quality team with an impressive combination of youth and experience. Toronto is a well-rounded, solid squad that is pretty good at every aspect of the game.
The Jays aren’t the best power-hitting team, and they didn’t score the most runs. But they are the best contact-hitting team in baseball, which means they also whiff less than everyone else. And despite the propensity to seek contact, they don’t sacrifice power.
The pitching staff didn’t lead the league in earned run average or strikeouts. Although the starters aren’t dominant, they almost always give the Jays a chance to win. The bullpen has had some challenges during the season, but when used in the right way it can neutralize a lineup, as seen in Game 4 of the ALDS.
The Jays are also a very good defensive team that is at or near the top in many defensive metrics, just as they have been over the past several years. They lead baseball in defensive runs saved in 2025.
It has taken some time for the front office to come up with the right formula, but they have finally gotten there. The Jays are not only balanced, but they are also a fun team to watch with some great personalities. Schneider has done an excellent job keeping the ship steadied. He has maintained a confident, authentic tone during the ups and downs of the season.
There is no reason the Jays can’t win the American League pennant. They went 4-2 against the Mariners in the regular season and 4-3 versus Detroit.
The Mariners were the No. 2 seed in the American League as they rallied late in the season and displaced the Houston Astros to win the AL West title.
The Tigers made the playoffs as a wild card after a near catastrophic collapse that wiped away a 15.5-game lead in the AL Central. They rebounded by defeating the Cleveland Guardians in the wild-card round and are now in a 2-2 tie with the Mariners in the best-of-five Divisional Series matchup with a decisive Game 5 in Seattle on Friday.
Tigers are the better matchup
If I were in the Blue Jays front office, I would much prefer to play the Tigers.
The Mariners have deeper starting pitching and a stronger bullpen. The Mariners have a power-laden lineup and are a solid defensive team, as well. They have star power, with slugging catcher Cal Raleigh and his 61 homers (regular season plus postseason) leading the way. He is also a Blue Jays killer with 10 home runs, 20 runs batted in and a 1.016 OPS against the team in 24 career games.
The Tigers will have their ace, and likely repeat AL Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal on the mound Friday night. If Detroit wins it will be because Skubal pitches them to the next round. He would not be ready to pitch in the ALCS on full rest until Game 3 in Detroit next Wednesday. This would give the Jays a distinct advantage in the first two games, with Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage likely on the mound in Toronto, on Sunday and Monday respectively.
Skubal would be able to make a second start in the ALCS on full rest, but not until Game 7. The Jays would prefer to end the series before that and not have to face him again.
No matter who the Jays play, they will have an energy advantage. Both the Mariners and Tigers have flown from Seattle to Detroit last week, and then back to Seattle on Wednesday night after the game. The winner on Friday night will have to fly after the game to Toronto to get situated for the start of the ALCS on Sunday. I’m getting tired just writing about it.
ALCS roster decisions
There are two main question marks as the Jays prepare to reset their roster for the ALCS: Are Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt available to play in the series?
Ideally, the Jays do not want to have a bullpen day in the series. Hopefully Bassitt’s back inflammation is better, and he is available to make a start. If not, I would likely plan for a bullpen game in Game 4, just like in the ALDS.
Sources have told me that Max Scherzer’s simulated game performances during the past week or so have been very similar to his month of September, which led to an ERA over 10.00. So, it’s Bassitt or the bullpen.
Bichette jogged in the outfield in New York, but he looked slow and injured. He said he has made a lot of progress lately, but I can’t see how the Jays activate him for the ALCS unless he can freely run the bases. Based upon what I saw, I can’t imagine that he makes enough progress to be ready.
If Bichette is available, he would likely only be able to be the designated hitter. The Jays would have to make a decision about whose spot he would take on the roster. I think if he can play in the field, then Isiah Kiner-Falefa would be out. If Bichette can only DH, then I think Anthony Santander is out.
It is critical that Bichette be able to stay healthy if they activate him. If he isn’t ready and they have to replace him, then he would be lost for the World Series. Based upon what I saw, it’s more likely Bichette is available for the World Series than the ALCS.
Stay tuned.
