Blue Jays’ Cease firmly in Cy Young conversation

On July 8, Dylan Cease came close to throwing only the second no-hitter in Toronto Blue Jays history until he allowed a single leading off the ninth inning against the Giants.

While Cease couldn’t join Dave Steib in the history books, it was without question his best outing as a Blue Jay and proof of strong early returns on the team’s $210 million investment.

Two starts later, he somehow topped it.

Cease went the distance Saturday in Boston against the Red Sox in a 6-0 win, throwing only the sixth complete game shutout across baseball in 2026. He allowed just one hit and struck out 12 while throwing a season-high 120 pitches, giving the struggling Blue Jays a much-needed victory as they aim to fight back into playoff contention. It was also the team’s first one-hitter since Shaun Marcum in August of 2010.

With the MLB season nearly two-thirds of the way over and Cease among baseball’s best starters, let’s look at where he stands in the Cy Young race.

Cease’s case

Cease’s seven-year, $210 million contract came with questions.

Was a pitcher who had a 4.55 ERA and won just eight games for the 90-win Padres in 2026 a good idea? He’d never made an All-Star Team in seven big-league seasons and had a career ERA of 3.88. While he did finish second in Cy Young voting with the White Sox in 2022 and fourth in 2024 with San Diego, his inability to be consistent season to season held him back. In other words, it was a lot of money to commit to a pitcher who wasn’t necessarily among the game’s elite.

Except the Jays weren’t betting on what Cease had done in the past. They saw the stuff, the durability and the ‘under the hood’ metrics and bet they could be the ones to help him recapture his top form.

It’s premature to evaluate a seven-year contract midway through year one. But so far, so good.

Through 19 starts, the 30-year-old right-hander is third in the AL among qualified starters with a 2.46 ERA. He has a league-leading 167 strikeouts in 113.1 innings, trailing only Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski (185), the runaway National League Cy Young favourite, for the MLB lead. It’s even more impressive that Cease has racked up this many punchouts considering he missed north of two weeks from late May to early June with a hamstring strain.

Cease also leads the AL by a wide margin in strikeouts per nine innings (13.26) and in opponent’s batting average against (.186). He’s second only in AL pitcher fWAR (4.1) to Cam Schlittler (4.2), his primary opponent in the Cy Young chase.

Dylan Cease’s 2026 season by the numbers

One potential hang-up in Cease’s candidacy could be the performance of the Jays as a whole. While he’s more than done his part, it’s possible Cease’s 2026 could go down as one of the few bright sports for the Blue Jays in their bid to repeat as AL champs. The Jays are 10 games under .500 at 48-58 and sit five and a half games out of the final playoff spot.

The Cy Young is awarded annually in each league to the “best” pitcher, not the “most valuable,” which for some voters indicates that one’s individual performance is more valuable if it translates to season-long team success. Put another way, the Cy Young does not come with an implication that the Jays should have to make the playoffs for Cease to be considered. On the flip side, one could argue that high quality innings pitched in a pennant race are more impressive than innings thrown for a team that finishes well outside the playoff picture.

Of course, with more than a third of the season to go, the Jays still have time to get back in it, so that part of the discussion can be tabled for now. But it’s something that may come back up if things don’t turn around for them.

The primary contender

Cam Schlittler was beyond impressive in 14 starts last season as a rookie for the Yankees, turning in a 2.96 ERA and some impressive outings in September as New York pushed the Jays for the AL East title until the final day of the regular season.

Schlittler has been even better this season and seems to have the inside track on Cease right now in the Cy Young race. According to FanDuel, Schlittler is the favourite to win the award at -130, while the Jays’ righty is second at +135.

Cease, Schlittler side-by-side

The 25-year-old Schlittler leads all AL starters by a wide margin in ERA (2.07) and his 157 strikeouts trail only Cease by 10. Schlittler also leads the league in WHIP (0.93), strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.28) and has shouldered a heavy workload for the top wild-card-seeded Yanks, sitting second in total innings (130.1) behind Tampa’s Michael Wacha (132.1). Schlittler (13) is also one quality start behind Wacha for the AL lead and four ahead of Cease in that department.

Schlittler’s output this season has had a direct effect on winning. He is tied for second in the AL with 10 wins and the Yankees are 15-7 in games he’s started. By comparison, Cease has seven wins and Toronto is 12-7 when he takes the hill.

Many advanced stats give Cease a slight edge.

According to MLB Statcast, Cease’s xwOBA – abbreviated for expected weighted on-base average, quantifying opposing hitters’ expected success at reaching base against a pitcher – is tops in the AL at .260, while Schlittler is second at .267. Cease has generally allowed softer contact than Schlittler as well. His hard hit percentage – a rate at which batted balls against travel 95mph or above – is 32.2 per cent, well below Schlittler’s 39.4 per cent. In barrels, which are batted balls that led to a minimum expected .500 batting average and .1500 slugging percentage, Cease (5.1 per cent) has an edge over Schlittler, too (8.0 per cent).

Toronto’s most recent Cy Young winner was Robbie Ray in 2021. For the Yankees, it was Gerrit Cole three years ago.

Other contenders

The betting odds indicate the AL Cy Young is a two-horse race right now between Schlittler and Cease. The next closest contender is Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays at +2700.

Rasmussen and Cleveland’s Parker Messick squared off Sunday at Tropicana Field and each turned in impressive outings. With both of their teams in playoff spots, who knows how those odds could shift if they continue to put up zeroes.

The 25-year-old Messick has a 2.59 ERA with 122 strikeouts in 125.1 innings and a WHIP of 1.04. Rasmussen has a 3.07 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP.

He may not even be the best pitcher on the Rays’ staff as teammate Nick Martinez sits second in the AL in ERA at 2.45, one notch below Cease at 2.46. Martinez isn’t your typical Cy Young contender as his pitch-to-contact approach has him with just 67 strikeouts in 117.1 innings. But outs are outs, and Martinez’s walk rate (1.5 per nine innings) is the lowest in the AL. He’s also induced plenty of weak contact as his hard-hit percentage (31.9) is a hair better than Cease’s and tops in the junior circuit.

With where things stand right now, it’s likely the award goes to one of Schlittler or Cease. But anything can happen with more than a third of the season to go, especially when postseason narratives enter the picture.

Cy Young Odds courtesy of FanDuel