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Despite consecutive losses, Blue Jays still in driver’s seat as MLB playoff race heats up

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John Schneider Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays dropped a 4-0 final to the Tampa Bay Rays in a matinee on Thursday, but still hold a three-game lead in the chase for the top spot in the American League.

That is thanks in large part to the continued struggles of the Detroit Tigers, who held the American League’s top spot as recently as Sept. 10, but have won just one of their past six games.

With nine games left on the schedule before the playoffs begin Sept. 30, the Blue Jays have a good cushion to at least skip the wild-card series by finishing in one of the top two spots in the AL.

The AL standings look as follows entering play on Friday (division leaders are bolded).

TeamRecordGames behindGames remainingLast 10 games
Toronto Blue Jays89-64-97-3
New York Yankees86-673.096-4
Detroit Tigers85-684.093-7
Seattle Mariners84-695.099-1
Houston Astros84-695.096-4
Boston Red Sox83-706.095-5
Cleveland Guardians81-717.5109-1

Meanwhile, around the AL, the Yankees end their season with three series against two of the worst teams in the majors in the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox, while the Tigers contend with the Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians and Red Sox.

Following the series in Kansas City, the Blue Jays return home for three-game sets against the Boston Red Sox and Rays.

Meanwhile, around the AL, the Yankees end their season with three series against two of the worst teams in the majors in the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox, while the Tigers contend with the Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians and Red Sox.

The battle for the AL West crown may very well be decided in a weekend series between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros - at the very least, if the teams play a tight series, it could give the Blue Jays an even bigger cushion over two teams on the outside of the race for a bye week.

Here’s a look at the difficulty of the remaining schedule for teams in the playoff race,

TeamRecordHome games leftOpponent win percentage
Toronto Blue Jays89-646.509
New York Yankees86-676.437
Detroit Tigers85-683.513
Seattle Mariners84-696.459
Houston Astros84-693.490
Boston Red Sox83-703.542
Cleveland Guardians81-716.468

Of the seven teams primarily in the playoff chase (the Texas Rangers are far on the fringe at 79-74), the Blue Jays have the third-hardest remaining schedule, while the Yankees have the easiest by a wide margin.

Toronto may be helped by their remaining road series being played against a team essentially playing out a lost season in the Royals, then two series at home - Toronto’s 50-25 mark at the Rogers Centre is the best home record of any team in the AL and trails only the Philadelphia Phillies in the majors.

The one potential thorn in Toronto’s quest to clinch its first AL East title since 2015 and only second in the last 30 years is the looming series against the Rays to close out the campaign. Toronto is 3-7 against Tampa Bay this season, their worst record against any opponent they have played more than three times.