To buy or not to buy?
That is the question every general manager in baseball is asking themselves as their teams approach the All-Star Game with the trade deadline (Aug. 3) just a few weeks away.
Even with the amateur draft set to start on Saturday, there are scouts scattered all over the country following major-league players and minor-league players.
Teams that are buyers will have scouts looking at major-league talent on other clubs. Teams that are sellers will bear down on minor-league prospects that could come back in return for their major-league players being dealt. There will be some teams that will consider being buyers and sellers and looking at both major-league and minor-league players.
At the trade deadline, the law of supply and demand rules the day. It is the economic model of price determination. The greater the supply, the lower the price. The greater the demand, the higher the price.
There are currently 13 teams in the American League within five games of the third wild-card spot. In the National League, there are 12 teams within seven games of the third wild-card position. This leaves only five teams across MLB clearly selling at this stage.
That means the supply of predictable impactful talent will be limited and the asking price will be high. It may take creativity between buyers to make deals together. They can make the so-called “Rob Peter to pay Paul” deals. This happens when a team finds a match in another team that has a surplus in an area where they have a need and vice versa. One team needs an outfielder and may have starting pitching depth while another needs a starting pitcher and has outfield depth to trade and they satisfy each other’s needs by making a deal.
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently not playing well and have gone from being 39-39 and holding the third wild-card position to losing 10 of 15 games and now sitting 3.5 games behind the Texas Rangers for that spot with two other teams in front of them. That is not to mention that there are four teams either tied with the Jays or within a game and a half. Everyone is bunched together.
The Jays offence is ranked 29th in runs per game. That is a far cry from the offence that was fourth in scoring last season. There is a lot of blame to go around for the underperformance. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the way, followed closely by George Springer. Those two were the heart and soul of the offence a year ago but they haven’t delivered in 2026. Gurrero has four homers, none at home. Springer had a .399 on-base percentage last season. In 2026, so far only a .308 OBP.
Alejandro Kirk is nowhere the hitter this year as he was a year ago when he was a run producer with the best two-strike approach in the game. Kirk (76 RBI), Addison Barger (74 RBI) and Nathan Lukes (65 RBI) added length and depth behind Springer, Guerrero and Bo Bichette last year. This season they have combined for 26 RBI so far. When Daulton Varsho came off the injured list in 2025, he slugged 20 homers in 248 at-bats. He had an .832 OPS. This season his OPS is .707.
Kazuma Okamoto is really the only hitter living up to expectations on the Jays. He hit his 20th homer on Monday. He leads the team in home runs and RBI (55) and is second in runs (46) scored.
The Jays will need to buy a bat at the trade deadline if they decide to move in that direction. They are 30-40 against right-handed starters. They need a big lefty bat, if and when they decide to buy.
The pitching is a mess right now as the Jays have a combined 4.13 ERA which ranks 12th in MLB. The starting pitching ERA (4.47 ERA) is ranked 19th however and is fading fast. The starting pitching was thought to be a strength of this team but Kevin Gausman 0-5 with a 6.51 ERA in his last seven starts. Patrick Corbin (5.11 ERA) has been moved out of the rotation because of his struggles. Max Scherzer is on the injured list with back issues again. Shane Bieber has a 9.00 ERA since his return from his arm issues. Only Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage have pitched well.
The Jays had deep starting pitching coming into the season, but underperformance and injuries have wiped them out. If they decide to be buyers, they will need to add another starting pitcher, who can give them predictable innings and a chance to win.
The Jays bullpen has been completely overworked because of the starting pitching issues. There are 19 pitchers in all of baseball with 41 appearances or more this season and five of the are Blue Jays. Toronto has used different relievers 342 times this season which is the most in baseball. The Reds are second with 323 pitching moves. For perspective, the Mariners have the least with only made only 272 calls to the bullpen.
The Jays pen has been pretty good, but it will be gassed by the trade deadline, if not sooner. Louis Varland has been awesome as the closer and has stabilized the role. The rest of the crew has been good as well but the wear and tear will take a toll. The Jays will need to add an arm or two to their pen if they decide to buy.
As it stands now the Jays will likely be buyers, but if they fade much more in the standings that can change. If they decide to sell then they will likely try and trade Gausman, Bieber, Springer, Varsho, Jeff Hoffman, Jesus Sanchez, Yimi Garcia, and Scherzer if possible. This group could bring back a decent haul depending upon health.
One thing for certain is the Jays’ ability to buy and add to their roster.
But if Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho and Gausman, don’t get their acts together, then new additions will not be enough. The Jays need their good players to play well for it to matter.
Guerrero takes pass on All-Star Game
The announcement that Guerrero was elected as the starting first baseman for the All-Star Game was a bit surprising considering his underperformance this year. But maybe we now have some clarity as to why he has been struggling.
Guerrero bowing out of the game to continue to rehab his sore lower back, that has been an issue for over a month, may explain why has isn’t hitting home runs. It is very difficult to sit back on your legs and rotate rapidly in a swing when your back is hurting. Power comes from the ground up. Anytime there is something askew in the kinetic links from the feet to the calves, to the knees to the thighs and hips it can sap a hitter of his power.
I am sure it is disappointing to Vlad to miss the All-Star Game, but it sounds like the right thing to do. He needs to heal because if he is powerless, so too will the Blue Jays be in making a second half run.
