With the tough part of the schedule over, the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff chances are still alive.
The Jays just went through a 13-game span playing four games against the Boston Red Sox, six games against the New York Yankees and three against the Tampa Bay Rays. This wasn’t a make-or-break series of games – well, actually, it could have been the break portion of the season. But by going 8-5, the Jays kept themselves in the middle of the wild-card race.
The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians are currently tied for the third wild-card spot. The Blue Jays (1.5 GB), Twins (2 GB), Orioles (2 GB), Mariners (2.5 GB) and Tigers (3.5 GB) are all still in the race. It is crowded and it is chaos.
So, we now have to look for where advantages may be found. Momentum is a good indicator about where teams are headed. The Rangers, Twins, Mariners and Tigers are fading while the Guardians, Jays, Orioles and are surging.
The strength of schedule for the remainder of the season is an important factor to consider as well. Generally, teams should fare better against lesser teams. Remember, any team can beat any other team on any given day. But, over time, the weaker the opponent, the better the chances to beat them.
The Blue Jays’ record against teams at or better than .500 this season is 33-42, and their record against sub-.500 teams is 31-26. The good news is that Toronto doesn’t play a single team with a record over .500 the rest of the way. In fact, they have the second easiest (.464 opponents’ winning percentage) remaining schedule of all 30 teams in baseball. One challenge is that the Mariners (.448) have a slightly easier schedule than the Jays, and the Guardians (.465) are third easiest, close behind the Jays.
Sounds like it will be easy, but it won’t be, because the Jays play the Kansas City Royals (six games) who have had a disappointing season and aren’t contenders, but they have won eight straight games. Sometimes it is not who you play but when you play them.
They also play 15 games against the other wild-card contenders. That is good news in that a win for the Jays is also a loss for one of their closest competitors. But they will be playing hungry teams.
The overall takeaway is that there is a pathway for the Jays to make the playoffs. They are playing good baseball now against the better teams, so they have elevated their level of play. If they can continue to play at this level against the weak remaining schedule, they can separate from the pack. The head-to-head matchups with the closest wild-card contenders will be critical.
Can Vladdy salvage his lost season?
The most critical factor, however, will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He returned to the lineup on Saturday from the concussion IL after a collision in the Yankee series last week.
Guerrero has had a lost season to this point. But if he can get hot the rest of the way and carry this offence to the playoffs, it can redefine his year. The Jays need Vladdy – the run producer with power, not the table setter.
The Jays are ranked 29th in runs per game. They are ranked 28th in home runs. This is not who they were built to be.
The main culprit in the lack of offence is Guerrero. He has just seven home runs. If you told me before the season that the Jays would be this bad offensively and that Guerrero would be the biggest underperformer in baseball, I would never have believed it. It is time for the offence and Guerrero pick it up.
Guerrero’s week of recovery also gives him time to clear his mind of any negative thinking about his offence.
When hitters struggle it can consume them. They can get a feeling that the slump will never end. When the mind clears and then focuses on other things, even a health challenge, it can relieve some of the pressure.
Guerrero needs immediate success now that he is back in the lineup. Then he needs another couple good days to remind himself that he is capable of being great.
The rotation situation
The starting pitching is also going to be critical over the final 30 games. I suspect the newly acquired Spencer Arrighetti will likely take the fifth spot in the rotation in place of the bullpen day they have been using.
In an ideal world, I would like to see the Jays use an upcoming off day to separate Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber and Arrighetti. The bullpen is vulnerable with the three of them in line. Those three are less predictable than Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano. Spreading out the risk could help maximize the bullpen performance.
As rotation is currently structured, there may be a game or two where John Schneider will have to take a loss, to save the bullpen to win the next day. It may be that a starter has to take one for the team and is left on the mound to eat up innings despite getting shelled in a game. There may be a game in which a position player is called upon to finish a game and the score gets even more out of hand. That might be the price to pay for making the playoffs.
Spitting Seeds
- On Saturday, the Los Angeles Dodgers finally saw the ace they traded for when they acquired Tarik Skubal. He allowed three first-inning runs and the Pirates had five hits and no strikeouts the first time through the lineup. The second and third time through the lineup the Pirates were 0-for-17 with no runs and 11 strikeouts. Skubal retired 18 of the final 19 batters he faced. The rich get richer.
- The Yankees have likely lost designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton for the rest of the season after he injured his left calf while rehabbing. He hasn’t played since April 24. Aaron Judge (rib injury) is starting baseball activities and there is growing hope that he will return in September. Third baseman Ryan McMahon is on the injured list with a sore thumb but should be back by next weekend. They have gotten Carlos Rodon back off the injured list and received good news on starter Max Fried’s elbow bone bruise as he threw a 26-pitch bullpen session. Outfielder Cody Bellinger was activated off of the injured list on Sunday as his hamstring has healed. The Yankees will be strong in October, but not soon enough to catch the Rays atop the division. I think the Yankees will be the team to beat in the American League when they get healthy.
- The Baltimore Orioles’ big off-season signing of first baseman Pete Alonso is paying huge dividends. Alonso is almost single-handedly carrying the Orioles in their playoff push. Over the past 15 games he is hitting .488/.508/.845 with two doubles, seven home runs and 14 RBI. He has 30 homers this season. It is the seventh straight year he has reached that number.
- Saturday was supposed to be all about Seattle Mariners lefty Kade Anderson, who is the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. The young man made his debut against the Cubs in Seattle. He threw well, lasting 5.2 innings and allowing three runs while striking out five batters. He was good but the 45,681 fans who were at the game to witness the debut left talking about Randy Arozarena. The Mariners’ left fielder hit the first pitch of the game for a homer. He also launched the last pitch of the game for a two-run walk-off homer. In between, Arozarena singled and walked, and, oh yeah, he also robbed a home run with a leaping catch, pulling the ball back from over the wall. He stole the show and the young lefty couldn’t have been happier. And then for good measure Arozarena homered again in his first at bat on Sunday. Stay hot.
