The Toronto Blue Jays remain just a half game out of the final American League wild-card spot entering play Tuesday.
The Baltimore Orioles failed to build on their half-game wild-card lead Monday night after a 7-6 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. That means the Blue Jays (61-65) are one of seven teams within two games of the final AL playoff spot with just over 20 per cent of the season still go to.
Said another way, things are going to be extraordinarily tight for the Jays and the other six teams the rest of the way.
The Blue Jays are in the midst of a difficult phase in their schedule. After hosting the Yankees at Rogers Centre over the weekend, Toronto begins a series in Tampa against the Rays on Tuesday before taking on the Yankees again, this time in the Bronx, this weekend. After that, the Jays do not have another game against a team currently over .500 the final 30 games of the season.
This week’s series in Tampa will be a huge measuring stick for the Jays’ recent hot streak. And history has not been kind to the Jays in Tampa.
Since the start of 2017, Toronto is 29-52 at Tropicana Field. That’s a winning percentage of 35.8 per cent. According to Brian Murphy of MLB.com, it’s the Jays’ lowest winning percentage at any stadium over the past decade outside of Cleveland’s Progressive Field (10-20, .333).
Even when the Rays were displaced last season due to Hurricane Milton and played out of Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, they still won four of six hosting the Jays.
The Jays were swept away in their only series at the Trop so far this season in May where they scored a combined four runs over three games and trailed 3-0 after just three Rays batters in the series opener.
Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., should be familiar ground for the Jays. They hold spring training in nearby Dunedin, Fla., which is also home to their player development complex. And yet, The Trop has felt far from a home away from home.
“It’s not the building, it’s not the turf, it’s not the roof, it’s not the lights, it’s not anything,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said in a story posed to MLB.com on May 5. “[The Rays] are a good team. You’ve got to play better is the bottom line.”
It’s more of a Rays problem than a Tropicana Field problem. Tampa won two additional series in Toronto since their sweep in May, bringing the Jays’ record against the Rays this season to 2-8.
The Jays will finish with a losing record against the Rays this season for the ninth time in a row. Over that span, they are a combined 51-84. The last season the Jays had a winning record against the Rays was in 2017, when they were 10-9.
| Year | Jays’ Record Against Rays |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-8* |
| 2025 | 6-7 |
| 2024 | 4-9 |
| 2023 | 6-7 |
| 2022 | 9-10 |
| 2021 | 8-11 |
| 2020 | 4-6 |
| 2019 | 6-13 |
| 2018 | 6-13 |
| 2017 | 10-9 |
*Season series not yet concluded
The Jays aren’t alone this season. Tampa Bay is tied with the Atlanta Braves (42) for the most wins at home and owns the best homefield winning percentage (.666).
The Rays (75-49) have been far and away the top team in the AL this season and narrowly trail the Milwaukee Brewers (77-48) for the best record in baseball. They hold a six-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East and if the season ended today would receive a bye to the AL Division series.
Trade deadline addition Jose Soriano gets the ball Tuesday for the Blue Jays against Nick Martinez, who leads Rays’ starters in ERA this season at 2.74. Martinez is a pitch-to-contact type pitcher with just 78 strikeouts in 138.0 innings, but he does have an AL-best 1.3 walks per nine innings.
Soriano is set to make his third start with the Jays after shutting down the Boston Red Sox last time out. He has a 1.69 ERA in his two starts as a Blue Jay after posting a 3.29 mark in 22 starts with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the Aug. 3 trade.
