A few weeks ago, Tarik Skubal being dealt before Major League Baseball's trade deadline seemed like an inevitability. Now, it's at least a debate. The Detroit Tigers, fresh off taking two of three from the lowly Los Angeles Angels over the weekend, have won 10 of their first 14 games in July and are 25-15 since the start of June. They're still six games below .500, but in a watered-down American League, they're also just 4½ games out of a wild-card spot -- albeit with five teams to jump.
The growing sentiment among rival executives is that the Tigers will hold onto Skubal beyond the Aug. 3 deadline, in the leadup to his free agency, and give themselves every chance to make a run in 2026. But there's a caveat: They must keep playing well. Really well, perhaps. Such is the predicament they put themselves in by finishing May in a tie for baseball's worst record. Any slipup, and Skubal -- the reigning, back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner, one of few men who can singlehandedly alter the dynamic of an entire sport -- could be had.
If so, all eyes could be on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Do the Dodgers need Skubal? Not really. Will Andrew Friedman and his front office lieutenants bend over backward to get him? Probably not. But in a year when a muddled playoff race will significantly limit the amount of true difference-makers available at midseason, Skubal represents a fascinating scenario for baseball's most powerful franchise.
On one hand, the Dodgers hold the sport's second-best record, highest run differential and largest division lead, with key reinforcements on the way back. If there's one team that can win it all without a big move, it's them. On the other, this is a franchise that has shown it will stop at nothing to accumulate championships. The anger at their exorbitance only seems to motivate the Dodgers.
As another pivotal deadline approaches, it's perhaps as easy for Dodgers officials to talk themselves out of trading for Skubal as it is to talk themselves into it. Here, we make a case for each.
Why the Dodgers won't trade for Skubal
Because they're set
The Dodgers already have their four playoff starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Those four combined to go 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA while taking down 113 of the Dodgers' 165 innings in last year's playoffs -- and they all pitched in Game 7 of the World Series. It's not hard to see them shouldering a similar load in another October.
First, though, three-quarters of that group needs to get healthy. Snell has spent almost the entire season on the injured list, battling a sore shoulder and then having loose bodies removed from his pitching elbow, but he made his first rehab start over the weekend and should be back early next month. Glasnow reported lower back spasms in early May and has been out since, but he is throwing off a mound again and is expected to return before the end of August. Ohtani, still feeling the effects of a balky left knee, was shut down from pitching indefinitely Sunday, though the expectation is he will return to the mound eventually.
Nothing is guaranteed. Not with Yamamoto, who took on a massive workload last year. Not with Snell, who has pitched three innings all year. Not with Glasnow, whose back injury has proved tricky. And certainly not with Ohtani, who's juggling a full-time two-way role for the first time in three years.
But the Dodgers also employ Justin Wrobleski, who put up a 2.69 ERA in his first 100⅓ innings, then recorded five strikeouts in the All-Star Game. They just watched Roki Sasaki dial up 102 mph at Yankee Stadium. And their bullpen will be in much better shape than it was heading into October last year.
Because they'd rather pay with cash
The Dodgers have made their fair share of massive midseason acquisitions under Friedman, including Yu Darvish in 2017, Manny Machado in 2018, and Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in 2021. But that's also the time of year in which they parted ways with Yordan Álvarez, Oneil Cruz and Miguel Vargas. And though very few of the prospects the Dodgers have sent out in the bigger midseason deals have panned out -- Álvarez and Cruz moved in far less significant trades, at times when they weren't highly regarded prospects -- they loathe this time of year.
They believe the cost can be too high, and they spend every offseason positioning themselves to not give up prospects ahead of the trade deadline.
The Dodgers have added a dizzying amount of star talent over these past three offseasons, but almost all of it -- Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Tanner Scott, Sasaki, Kyle Tucker, Edwin Diaz -- came through free agency. Since landing Ohtani in December 2023, Dodgers owner Mark Walter has made it clear he'll pay any expense in pursuit of winning, the luxury tax threshold be damned. Money is no object for the Dodgers. Parting with good prospects is another story.
Because it's not only about now
Friedman said this seven months ago during the winter meetings, after agreeing to terms with Díaz and before signing Tucker:
"There are a lot of stories of large-revenue teams that have had some run of success and then fallen off a cliff. For us, it's about doing everything we can to maximize this current window while looking ahead to ensure those out years are open as well."
This is the dilemma that constantly gnaws at the Dodgers' principal decision-makers -- doing everything possible to win now versus setting themselves up to win later. Sometimes both can be achieved. Often one comes at the expense of the other. It's why for so long the Dodgers were so selective about who they offered long-term contracts to, and why not winning it all in the years when they pushed their proverbial chips to the middle of the table to get Darvish, Machado and Scherzer, all pending free agents, hurt so much.
But the other side is worth noting: The Dodgers traded 11 prospects to get Darvish, Machado and Scherzer (and Turner, who was controllable through the following season). Those 11 have combined for fewer than 13 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement. Only two, Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer and Washington Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz, are still active in the major leagues.
Would the Dodgers -- with the fourth-best farm system in the industry at the start of this season, according to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel -- be able to trade for Skubal and still maintain a deep pool of young players in their system? Certainly. But it will hurt. The Tigers would make sure of it.
Why the Dodgers will trade for Skubal
Because they can
Nobody, rival evaluators say, matches up better with the Tigers on a deal like this than the Dodgers. The Tigers' farm system is loaded with promising infielders but could use more outfielders beyond 21-year-old center fielder Max Clark. They could also stand to infuse it with more pitching. The Dodgers can offer both.
In Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope and Eduardo Quintero, the Dodgers have three outfielders who cracked McDaniel's midseason Top 50. That list doesn't include Mike Sirota, who's tearing it up in Double-A and rising fast, or Charles Davalan, last year's No. 41 pick, or Ryan Ward, who's coming off a 36-homer season in Triple-A and would probably have a big league role if he played elsewhere.
But the Tigers wouldn't trade Skubal without also landing a young, ready-made replacement for their rotation. The Dodgers have Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan and River Ryan, all of whom perfectly fit that description. Teams would generally be hesitant to part with such promising arms for someone who will hit the open market in a few short months. The Dodgers could do so without compromising much of their long-term plans.
Because it keeps him from going to a competitor
If the Atlanta Braves get Skubal, they'd pair him with Chris Sale, giving them two top-shelf left-handers who would match up really well against a lefty-loaded Dodgers lineup -- not to mention complement one of the sport's best offenses and deepest bullpens.
If it's the Philadelphia Phillies, Skubal would join two lefty starters who give the Dodgers fits, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo.
What might be even scarier, though? Having to face Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski in a short series, on a Milwaukee Brewers team that would be much more dangerous than the one the Dodgers dispatched in last year's National League Championship Series. Even more dangerous: Skubal in a rotation alongside Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried, with Aaron Judge back healthy and the New York Yankees eager to avenge the 2024 World Series.
If Skubal is available, all of these potential suitors -- and others -- might be in play.
The Dodgers can talk themselves out of needing Skubal all they want, but it would be met with the dread of potentially having to face him when it matters most.
Because he puts them over the top
The most compelling reason for the Dodgers to trade for Skubal: There is a very short list of players who would significantly alter their chances of winning the World Series.
Skubal is one of them.
Given the morass that could surround this year's trade deadline, with 23 of 30 teams within four games of a playoff spot at the All-Star break, he could be the only one.
FanGraphs gave the Dodgers a 26.9% chance of winning it all when play resumed Friday. The next-closest team was the Yankees at 11%. The Dodgers believe the best moves they can make are internal -- giving Ohtani's knee enough time to get strong, activating Snell, Glasnow and Díaz off the injured list, getting Tucker on track offensively, and fixing the neck issues that have plagued star catcher Will Smith for more than a month.
But there's risk involved with hoping that all comes to fruition, especially when dealing with three-quarters of a potential playoff rotation. And one of the Dodgers' defining characteristics over these past few years is that they don't take chances with their roster. If there's even the slightest hint of a weakness, they attack it aggressively. And if they start to doubt the availability of some of their frontline starters down the stretch, and Skubal is available, maybe the Dodgers pounce.
Maybe they break the sport.
