The clock is ticking on the Toronto Blue Jays. They are still not in a playoff position and the calendar is winding down on the regular season.
There are only nine games remaining. The Jays play three games in Arlington, Texas, against the Rangers and then three in Baltimore against the Orioles. They finish the season at home with three games against the Cincinnati Reds.
In case you haven’t been paying close attention, there has been a change in the playoff picture. It’s getting complicated.
The Jays have been chasing and jockeying with the Cleveland Guardians for the third wild-card spot. But with the Guardians’ win on Wednesday over the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland is now sitting atop the American League Central Division by half a game.
The Jays are now chasing the White Sox for the third wild-card spot, and the Rangers have leapfrogged the Jays as well. The Rangers are one game behind the White Sox, while the Jays are a game and a half behind. The Rangers are also tied with the Houston Astros in the AL West race, which gives both teams two potential paths to playing in October.
Setting up Jays – Rangers
The Rangers swept the Jays in a four-game series in Toronto earlier this season. The Jays played the Rangers tough, as three of the four losses were by one run, but they came up short overall.
The starting pitching matchups favour the Jays in the first two games of the series. The Jays will start Dylan Cease against righty Kumar Rocker on Friday. Saturday’s matchup is Jose Soriano against Canadian Cal Quantrill, and Sunday will likely be a bullpen day for the Jays against Rangers ace Jacob deGrom.
But matchups on paper don’t really matter. The Jays need to go out and play and find ways to win, regardless of the opposition and matchup. The Jays and Rangers can damage each other’s playoff chances in this series. It won’t necessarily get them closer to the White Sox, but they can hurt one another or help their own chances.
The White Sox start a four-game series against the Detroit Tigers in Chicago on Thursday. The Tigers have won six of their past seven games and just played the Jays in a tough series. The Tigers aren’t going to make the playoffs, but they can play the role of spoiler.
After the Tigers, the White Sox go on the road to Kansas City and then finish at home against the Colorado Rockies. Chicago is a very young team and they are fading fast. They are very vulnerable.
The Rangers play the Mets at home after the series with the Jays and then they go on the road to Minnesota to play the Twins to finish the regular season.
The end of this season is going to be crazy. With so many teams bunched together, the tiebreakers will likely become a factor in at least one scenario. A quick rundown of where we stand on that front:
The Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Jays.
The White Sox have the tiebreaker over the Jays.
The Jays have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
The White Sox have the tiebreaker over the Rangers.
The White Sox have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
The Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
The Astros split the six games with the Blue Jays.
The Astros have the tiebreaker over the White Sox.
The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers.
We have a chance for a five-way tie between the Rangers, Astros, Guardians, White Sox and Blue Jays. If that happens, the Astros would win the AL West title. The White Sox would win the AL Central title. The third wild-card spot would then be between the Rangers, Guardians, and Blue Jays. That result is still to be determined since the Jays play in Texas this weekend.
Big Oak comes up huge
If the Jays are going to make the playoffs, it is likely that rookie third baseman Kazuma Okamoto will play a big role.
He leads the Jays in home runs (33), runs batted in (88) and runs scored (79). Over the past seven days, he has homered three times, driven in five runs and scored four.
Okamoto has been the Jays’ best offensive player this season, reinforcing the great move made by general manager Ross Atkins to sign him to a four-year, $60 million deal. He is a bargain at that price.
Okamoto is just adequate defensively, but there is room for improvement because he is a hard worker. He has outplayed former Blue Jays star Bo Bichette, who signed with the Mets in the off-season for three years at $126 million.
In spring training, a member of the Jays’ staff projected that Okamoto would have a better WAR than Bichette and they were correct. Okamoto has a 2.5bWAR and Bichette a 0.7 bWAR this year.
But Okamoto can’t carry the Jays by himself. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first Rogers Centre homer last Sunday when he went 4-for-5 against the Orioles. I thought it might unleash the beast that is inside Vladdy, but he is just 1-for-10 over the past three games. Thankfully, Brett Bateman, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer are swinging the bat well.
At some point Vladdy has to get hot, doesn’t he?
Mad Max delivers
Wednesday’s game against the Tigers sure felt like a must-win.
A huge tip of the cap to Max Scherzer, who went out and gave the Jays five solid innings, allowing just one run.
Scherzer has shown the ability to flush out bad outings and bounce back in his next start. That’s what experience can do for a player.
The Jays will need a couple more quality starts out of their right-handed veteran. Getting Trey Yesavage back in the rotation will also help, protecting the bullpen by saving relievers for high-leverage moments in the final days of the regular season.
